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Queen's Pawn Game: Chigorin Variation, Shropshire Defense

9.8K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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Analyze this line move by move

Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds

47.1%

40%55%
Floor46.3%

the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 48.0%.

Measured over 9.8K games at this level and clock.

Tough Sellloses more often than it wins at this level

Black comes out behind here — there are better weapons in the list.

Outcomes for Black

Draw 3.5 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 9.8K games

Rank among the families Black can choose here
not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
Games in this context
9.8K
Best context
51.2% at 1400-1599 Bullet
Worst context
42.6% at 1000-1199 Rapid
Average game length
32 moves
Games that end decisively
96.5%
Draws
3.5%

Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Time-Control Swing

Max swing: 14.0% · Classical best · Rapid worst

Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock

Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It gets better as the rating rises: 43.1% at 0-999, 58.8% at 2500+.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199—
2200-2499—
2500+———

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 45.3% expected score (273 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 47.7% expected score (943 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 50.6% expected score (590 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 42.0% expected score (11 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 83.4% expected score (3 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 49.1% expected score (339 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 48.2% expected score (896 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 42.6% expected score (535 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 42.7% expected score (19 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 53.5% expected score (13 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 48.2% expected score (435 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 45.7% expected score (789 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 47.4% expected score (404 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 35.4% expected score (19 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 44.7% expected score (8 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 51.2% expected score (543 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 46.0% expected score (873 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 46.6% expected score (336 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 31.0% expected score (38 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (6 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 53.5% expected score (392 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 44.6% expected score (696 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 48.0% expected score (174 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 31.5% expected score (12 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 67.4% expected score (10 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 43.7% expected score (330 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 44.4% expected score (304 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 52.2% expected score (91 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 16.7% expected score (3 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 61.8% expected score (7 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 49.2% expected score (230 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 46.6% expected score (130 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 60.8% expected score (31 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 57.7% expected score (5 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 41.8% expected score (229 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 48.9% expected score (44 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 42.4% expected score (5 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 45.4% expected score (20 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 72.3% expected score (3 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Queen's Pawn Game
50.0%
Variations (5)
Queen's Pawn Game: Accelerated London System
51.6%
Queen's Pawn Game: Modern Defense
49.2%
Queen's Pawn Game: Chigorin Variation
50.8%
Queen's Pawn Game: Zukertort Variation
51.1%
Queen's Pawn Game: Colle System
50.8%
Analyze Queen's Pawn Game: Chigorin Variation, Shropshire Defense PositionsSee what each move is worth at your rating, move by move

Methodology

Across every rating and clock, the Queen's Pawn Game: Chigorin Variation, Shropshire Defense scores 47.1% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 46.3% and 48.0% — from 9.8K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.

How the figures are made
Whose games these are
9.8K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
Which games we count
  • Rated games only — nothing casual.
  • Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
  • At least 2 moves played.
  • A game is filed under White’s rating.
Why every number comes with a range
A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
How much we need before we say anything
An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Queen's Pawn Game: Chigorin Variation, Shropshire Defense win rate?

Playing the Queen's Pawn Game: Chigorin Variation, Shropshire Defense, Black wins 45.3%, draws 3.5% and loses 51.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.1%. It rests on 9.8K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Queen's Pawn Game: Chigorin Variation, Shropshire Defense perform best?

The Queen's Pawn Game: Chigorin Variation, Shropshire Defense performs best for Black at 0-999, with an Expected Score of 48.2% (1.8K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.

Is the Queen's Pawn Game: Chigorin Variation, Shropshire Defense better in blitz or rapid?

For Black, the Queen's Pawn Game: Chigorin Variation, Shropshire Defense scores about the same in both: an Expected Score of 46.5% in Blitz (4.7K games) against 47.4% in Rapid (2.2K games).

How sharp is the Queen's Pawn Game: Chigorin Variation, Shropshire Defense?

The Queen's Pawn Game: Chigorin Variation, Shropshire Defense has a sharpness score of 96.5 (very decisive), meaning 96.5% of games end decisively. Average game length is 32 moves.

What is the Queen's Pawn Game: Chigorin Variation, Shropshire Defense win rate at 0-999?

At 0-999, Black wins 45.9%, draws 4.6% and loses 49.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.2%. It rests on 1.8K Lichess games, which average 29 moves.

What is the Queen's Pawn Game: Chigorin Variation, Shropshire Defense win rate at 1000-1199?

At 1000-1199, Black wins 44.7%, draws 4.0% and loses 51.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.7%. It rests on 1.8K Lichess games, which average 31 moves.

What is the Queen's Pawn Game: Chigorin Variation, Shropshire Defense win rate at 1200-1399?

At 1200-1399, Black wins 45.4%, draws 2.6% and loses 52.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.7%. It rests on 1.7K Lichess games, which average 32 moves.

What is the Queen's Pawn Game: Chigorin Variation, Shropshire Defense win rate at 1400-1599?

At 1400-1599, Black wins 46.0%, draws 2.6% and loses 51.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.3%. It rests on 1.8K Lichess games, which average 33 moves.

What is the Queen's Pawn Game: Chigorin Variation, Shropshire Defense win rate at 1600-1799?

At 1600-1799, Black wins 46.0%, draws 3.3% and loses 50.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.7%. It rests on 1.3K Lichess games, which average 37 moves.

What is the Queen's Pawn Game: Chigorin Variation, Shropshire Defense win rate at 1800-1999?

At 1800-1999, Black wins 42.8%, draws 4.8% and loses 52.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.2%. It rests on 738 Lichess games, which average 35 moves.

What is the Queen's Pawn Game: Chigorin Variation, Shropshire Defense win rate at 2000-2199?

At 2000-2199, Black wins 47.9%, draws 3.1% and loses 48.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.5%. It rests on 398 Lichess games, which average 36 moves.

What is the Queen's Pawn Game: Chigorin Variation, Shropshire Defense win rate at 2200-2499?

At 2200-2499, Black wins 40.6%, draws 5.1% and loses 54.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 43.2%. It rests on 283 Lichess games, which average 35 moves.

What is the Queen's Pawn Game: Chigorin Variation, Shropshire Defense win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet, Black wins 47.3%, draws 2.1% and loses 50.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.3%. It rests on 2.8K Lichess games.

What is the Queen's Pawn Game: Chigorin Variation, Shropshire Defense win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz, Black wins 44.5%, draws 3.9% and loses 51.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.5%. It rests on 4.7K Lichess games.

What is the Queen's Pawn Game: Chigorin Variation, Shropshire Defense win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid, Black wins 45.0%, draws 4.7% and loses 50.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.4%. It rests on 2.2K Lichess games.

What is the Queen's Pawn Game: Chigorin Variation, Shropshire Defense win rate in Classical?

In Classical, Black wins 31.4%, draws 4.3% and loses 64.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 33.6%. It rests on 102 Lichess games.

Is the Queen's Pawn Game: Chigorin Variation, Shropshire Defense a good opening?

The Queen's Pawn Game: Chigorin Variation, Shropshire Defense is hard work for Black — it favours White. Across all ratings, Black wins 45.3% of its games and loses 51.1%. It performs best at 0-999. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.