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Queen's Pawn Game: Chigorin Variation, Shropshire Defense

9.8K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Tough Sell
Black Expected Score47.1%Range (90% confident): 46.3% – 48.0%Based on 9.8K games
0%47.1%100%
Range (90% confident): 46.3% – 48.0%
Outcome Distribution
45.3%3.5%51.1%
Win
Draw
Loss
2...h5
Queen's Pawn Game: Chigorin Variation, Shropshire Defense
Analyzen=9.8K
Avg Length32 moves
Sharpness97%
Draw Rate3.5%

What is the Queen's Pawn Game: Chigorin Variation, Shropshire Defense expected score for Black?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Queen's Pawn Game: Chigorin Variation, Shropshire Defense has a 47.1% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 46.3% and 48.0%), based on 9.8K Lichess games.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Time-Control Swing

Max swing: 14.0% · Classical best · Rapid worst

Black Win% by Rating

Stable across ratings (~46%)

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 45.9% win rate (1,818 games)
  • 1000-1199: 44.7% win rate (1,792 games)
  • 1200-1399: 45.4% win rate (1,660 games)
  • 1400-1599: 46.0% win rate (1,798 games)
  • 1600-1799: 46.0% win rate (1,280 games)
  • 1800-1999: 42.8% win rate (738 games)
  • 2000-2199: 47.9% win rate (398 games)
  • 2200-2499: 40.6% win rate (283 games)
  • 2500+: 46.9% win rate (23 games)

Black Win% by Time Control

Best in UltraBullet (56%), worst in Classical (31%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 56.0% win rate (53 games)
  • Bullet: 47.3% win rate (2,791 games)
  • Blitz: 44.5% win rate (4,678 games)
  • Rapid: 45.0% win rate (2,166 games)
  • Classical: 31.4% win rate (102 games)

Black% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199—
2200-2499—
2500+———

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 45.3% expected score (273 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 47.7% expected score (943 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 50.6% expected score (590 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 42.0% expected score (11 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 83.4% expected score (3 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 49.1% expected score (339 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 48.2% expected score (896 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 42.6% expected score (535 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 42.7% expected score (19 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 53.5% expected score (13 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 48.2% expected score (435 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 45.7% expected score (789 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 47.4% expected score (404 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 35.4% expected score (19 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 44.7% expected score (8 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 51.2% expected score (543 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 46.0% expected score (873 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 46.6% expected score (336 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 31.0% expected score (38 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (6 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 53.5% expected score (392 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 44.6% expected score (696 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 48.0% expected score (174 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 31.5% expected score (12 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 67.4% expected score (10 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 43.7% expected score (330 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 44.4% expected score (304 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 52.2% expected score (91 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 16.7% expected score (3 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 61.8% expected score (7 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 49.2% expected score (230 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 46.6% expected score (130 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 60.8% expected score (31 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 57.7% expected score (5 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 41.8% expected score (229 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 48.9% expected score (44 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 42.4% expected score (5 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 45.4% expected score (20 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 72.3% expected score (3 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Queen's Pawn Game
50.0%
Variations (5)
Queen's Pawn Game: Accelerated London System
51.6%
Queen's Pawn Game: Modern Defense
49.2%
Queen's Pawn Game: Chigorin Variation
50.8%
Queen's Pawn Game: Zukertort Variation
51.1%
Queen's Pawn Game: Colle System
50.8%
Analyze Queen's Pawn Game: Chigorin Variation, Shropshire Defense PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Queen's Pawn Game: Chigorin Variation, Shropshire Defense win rate?

The Queen's Pawn Game: Chigorin Variation, Shropshire Defense has a 51.1% (90% CI: 50.3%-52.0%) win rate for white, based on 9.8K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Queen's Pawn Game: Chigorin Variation, Shropshire Defense perform best?

The Queen's Pawn Game: Chigorin Variation, Shropshire Defense performs best at 1200-1399 Elo with a 52.0% win rate for white (1.7K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Queen's Pawn Game: Chigorin Variation, Shropshire Defense better in blitz or rapid?

Classical (64.3%) outperforms UltraBullet (39.4%) by 24.9%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Queen's Pawn Game: Chigorin Variation, Shropshire Defense?

The Queen's Pawn Game: Chigorin Variation, Shropshire Defense has a sharpness score of 96.5 (very decisive), meaning 96.5% of games end decisively. Average game length is 32 moves.

What is the Queen's Pawn Game: Chigorin Variation, Shropshire Defense win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the Queen's Pawn Game: Chigorin Variation, Shropshire Defense has a 49.5% (90% CI: 47.6%-51.5%) win rate for white, based on 1.8K Lichess games. Average game length is 29 moves with a 4.6% draw rate.

What is the Queen's Pawn Game: Chigorin Variation, Shropshire Defense win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Queen's Pawn Game: Chigorin Variation, Shropshire Defense has a 51.3% (90% CI: 49.4%-53.3%) win rate for white, based on 1.8K Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 4.0% draw rate.

What is the Queen's Pawn Game: Chigorin Variation, Shropshire Defense win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Queen's Pawn Game: Chigorin Variation, Shropshire Defense has a 52.0% (90% CI: 50.0%-54.0%) win rate for white, based on 1.7K Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 2.6% draw rate.

What is the Queen's Pawn Game: Chigorin Variation, Shropshire Defense win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Queen's Pawn Game: Chigorin Variation, Shropshire Defense has a 51.4% (90% CI: 49.4%-53.3%) win rate for white, based on 1.8K Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 2.6% draw rate.

What is the Queen's Pawn Game: Chigorin Variation, Shropshire Defense win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Queen's Pawn Game: Chigorin Variation, Shropshire Defense has a 50.7% (90% CI: 48.4%-53.0%) win rate for white, based on 1.3K Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 3.3% draw rate.

What is the Queen's Pawn Game: Chigorin Variation, Shropshire Defense win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Queen's Pawn Game: Chigorin Variation, Shropshire Defense has a 52.4% (90% CI: 49.4%-55.4%) win rate for white, based on 738 Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 4.8% draw rate.

What is the Queen's Pawn Game: Chigorin Variation, Shropshire Defense win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Queen's Pawn Game: Chigorin Variation, Shropshire Defense has a 48.9% (90% CI: 44.8%-53.0%) win rate for white, based on 398 Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 3.1% draw rate.

What is the Queen's Pawn Game: Chigorin Variation, Shropshire Defense win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Queen's Pawn Game: Chigorin Variation, Shropshire Defense has a 54.3% (90% CI: 49.4%-59.1%) win rate for white, based on 283 Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 5.1% draw rate.

What is the Queen's Pawn Game: Chigorin Variation, Shropshire Defense win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Queen's Pawn Game: Chigorin Variation, Shropshire Defense has a 50.7% (90% CI: 49.1%-52.2%) win rate for white (2.8K Lichess games). Draw rate is 2.1%.

What is the Queen's Pawn Game: Chigorin Variation, Shropshire Defense win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Queen's Pawn Game: Chigorin Variation, Shropshire Defense has a 51.6% (90% CI: 50.4%-52.8%) win rate for white (4.7K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.9%.

What is the Queen's Pawn Game: Chigorin Variation, Shropshire Defense win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Queen's Pawn Game: Chigorin Variation, Shropshire Defense has a 50.3% (90% CI: 48.5%-52.1%) win rate for white (2.2K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.7%.

What is the Queen's Pawn Game: Chigorin Variation, Shropshire Defense win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the Queen's Pawn Game: Chigorin Variation, Shropshire Defense has a 64.3% (90% CI: 56.4%-71.8%) win rate for white (102 Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.3%.

Is the Queen's Pawn Game: Chigorin Variation, Shropshire Defense a good opening?

The Queen's Pawn Game: Chigorin Variation, Shropshire Defense is statistically favors white with a 51.1% (90% CI: 50.3%-52.0%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 1200-1399 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.