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Queen's Pawn Game: Chigorin Variation, Irish Gambit

598K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Playable
Black Expected Score49.5%Range (90% confident): 49.4% – 49.6%Based on 598K games
0%49.5%100%
Range (90% confident): 49.4% – 49.6%
Outcome Distribution
47.8%3.4%48.8%
Win
Draw
Loss
2...c5
Queen's Pawn Game: Chigorin Variation, Irish Gambit
Analyzen=598K
Avg Length31 moves
Sharpness97%
Draw Rate3.4%

What is the Queen's Pawn Game: Chigorin Variation, Irish Gambit expected score for Black?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Queen's Pawn Game: Chigorin Variation, Irish Gambit has a 49.5% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 49.4% and 49.6%), based on 598K Lichess games.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Gambit BreakpointBlack

Peak: -0.5% · Breakpoint: 0-999

Black Win% by Rating

Declines with rating: 48% → 43%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 47.8% win rate (34,078 games)
  • 1000-1199: 47.9% win rate (54,275 games)
  • 1200-1399: 48.6% win rate (84,412 games)
  • 1400-1599: 48.5% win rate (109,326 games)
  • 1600-1799: 48.2% win rate (114,096 games)
  • 1800-1999: 48.0% win rate (94,441 games)
  • 2000-2199: 47.6% win rate (60,867 games)
  • 2200-2499: 44.1% win rate (38,154 games)
  • 2500+: 42.8% win rate (8,200 games)

Black Win% by Time Control

Best in Classical (51%), worst in UltraBullet (48%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 47.6% win rate (8,155 games)
  • Bullet: 48.0% win rate (248,203 games)
  • Blitz: 47.7% win rate (257,078 games)
  • Rapid: 47.8% win rate (81,571 games)
  • Classical: 51.0% win rate (2,842 games)

Black% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+—

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 36.3% expected score (53 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 50.1% expected score (9,273 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 49.5% expected score (17,238 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 49.1% expected score (7,448 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 50.7% expected score (66 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 54.1% expected score (108 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 50.0% expected score (16,954 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 48.8% expected score (26,567 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 49.1% expected score (10,434 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 49.1% expected score (212 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 54.5% expected score (379 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 50.3% expected score (27,152 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 49.6% expected score (41,355 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 50.1% expected score (15,022 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 55.1% expected score (504 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 53.0% expected score (1,087 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 50.0% expected score (35,303 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 49.8% expected score (52,958 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 50.5% expected score (19,015 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 55.1% expected score (963 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 51.5% expected score (1,833 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 49.8% expected score (41,591 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 49.7% expected score (53,461 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 49.9% expected score (16,559 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 53.9% expected score (652 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 48.6% expected score (2,738 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 49.7% expected score (43,671 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 50.1% expected score (38,350 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 49.8% expected score (9,316 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 51.0% expected score (366 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 44.8% expected score (1,479 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 49.7% expected score (36,272 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 50.1% expected score (19,950 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 49.5% expected score (3,097 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 45.0% expected score (69 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 40.8% expected score (443 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 46.9% expected score (30,377 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 45.9% expected score (6,657 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 44.6% expected score (667 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 32.6% expected score (10 games)
  • 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 55.5% expected score (35 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 46.1% expected score (7,610 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 42.5% expected score (542 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 63.8% expected score (13 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Queen's Pawn Game
50.0%
Variations (5)
Queen's Pawn Game: Accelerated London System
51.6%
Queen's Pawn Game: Modern Defense
49.2%
Queen's Pawn Game: Chigorin Variation
50.8%
Queen's Pawn Game: Zukertort Variation
51.1%
Queen's Pawn Game: Colle System
50.8%
Analyze Queen's Pawn Game: Chigorin Variation, Irish Gambit PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Queen's Pawn Game: Chigorin Variation, Irish Gambit win rate?

The Queen's Pawn Game: Chigorin Variation, Irish Gambit has a 48.8% (90% CI: 48.7%-48.9%) win rate for white, based on 598K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Queen's Pawn Game: Chigorin Variation, Irish Gambit perform best?

The Queen's Pawn Game: Chigorin Variation, Irish Gambit performs best at 2200-2499 Elo with a 51.0% win rate for white (38K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Queen's Pawn Game: Chigorin Variation, Irish Gambit better in blitz or rapid?

Bullet (49.2%) outperforms Classical (44.2%) by 5.0%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Queen's Pawn Game: Chigorin Variation, Irish Gambit?

The Queen's Pawn Game: Chigorin Variation, Irish Gambit has a sharpness score of 96.6 (very decisive), meaning 96.6% of games end decisively. Average game length is 31 moves.

What is the Queen's Pawn Game: Chigorin Variation, Irish Gambit win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the Queen's Pawn Game: Chigorin Variation, Irish Gambit has a 48.7% (90% CI: 48.3%-49.2%) win rate for white, based on 34K Lichess games. Average game length is 25 moves with a 3.5% draw rate.

What is the Queen's Pawn Game: Chigorin Variation, Irish Gambit win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Queen's Pawn Game: Chigorin Variation, Irish Gambit has a 49.3% (90% CI: 49.0%-49.7%) win rate for white, based on 54K Lichess games. Average game length is 27 moves with a 2.8% draw rate.

What is the Queen's Pawn Game: Chigorin Variation, Irish Gambit win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Queen's Pawn Game: Chigorin Variation, Irish Gambit has a 48.7% (90% CI: 48.4%-49.0%) win rate for white, based on 84K Lichess games. Average game length is 29 moves with a 2.7% draw rate.

What is the Queen's Pawn Game: Chigorin Variation, Irish Gambit win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Queen's Pawn Game: Chigorin Variation, Irish Gambit has a 48.4% (90% CI: 48.2%-48.7%) win rate for white, based on 109K Lichess games. Average game length is 30 moves with a 3.1% draw rate.

What is the Queen's Pawn Game: Chigorin Variation, Irish Gambit win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Queen's Pawn Game: Chigorin Variation, Irish Gambit has a 48.6% (90% CI: 48.4%-48.8%) win rate for white, based on 114K Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 3.2% draw rate.

What is the Queen's Pawn Game: Chigorin Variation, Irish Gambit win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Queen's Pawn Game: Chigorin Variation, Irish Gambit has a 48.3% (90% CI: 48.0%-48.6%) win rate for white, based on 94K Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 3.7% draw rate.

What is the Queen's Pawn Game: Chigorin Variation, Irish Gambit win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Queen's Pawn Game: Chigorin Variation, Irish Gambit has a 48.3% (90% CI: 48.0%-48.6%) win rate for white, based on 61K Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 4.1% draw rate.

What is the Queen's Pawn Game: Chigorin Variation, Irish Gambit win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Queen's Pawn Game: Chigorin Variation, Irish Gambit has a 51.0% (90% CI: 50.6%-51.4%) win rate for white, based on 38K Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 4.9% draw rate.

What is the Queen's Pawn Game: Chigorin Variation, Irish Gambit win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Queen's Pawn Game: Chigorin Variation, Irish Gambit has a 50.9% (90% CI: 50.0%-51.9%) win rate for white, based on 8.2K Lichess games. Average game length is 40 moves with a 6.3% draw rate.

What is the Queen's Pawn Game: Chigorin Variation, Irish Gambit win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet games, the Queen's Pawn Game: Chigorin Variation, Irish Gambit has a 49.6% (90% CI: 48.7%-50.5%) win rate for white (8.2K Lichess games). Draw rate is 2.8%.

What is the Queen's Pawn Game: Chigorin Variation, Irish Gambit win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Queen's Pawn Game: Chigorin Variation, Irish Gambit has a 49.2% (90% CI: 49.0%-49.4%) win rate for white (248K Lichess games). Draw rate is 2.8%.

What is the Queen's Pawn Game: Chigorin Variation, Irish Gambit win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Queen's Pawn Game: Chigorin Variation, Irish Gambit has a 48.5% (90% CI: 48.4%-48.7%) win rate for white (257K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.8%.

What is the Queen's Pawn Game: Chigorin Variation, Irish Gambit win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Queen's Pawn Game: Chigorin Variation, Irish Gambit has a 48.2% (90% CI: 47.9%-48.4%) win rate for white (82K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.1%.

What is the Queen's Pawn Game: Chigorin Variation, Irish Gambit win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the Queen's Pawn Game: Chigorin Variation, Irish Gambit has a 44.2% (90% CI: 42.7%-45.7%) win rate for white (2.8K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.8%.

Is the Queen's Pawn Game: Chigorin Variation, Irish Gambit a good opening?

The Queen's Pawn Game: Chigorin Variation, Irish Gambit is statistically balanced with a 48.8% (90% CI: 48.7%-48.9%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2200-2499 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.