TrueEloPlay what wins.
Analyzer

Queen's Pawn Game: Chigorin Variation, Alburt Defense

1.3M games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Playable
Black Expected Score48.5%Range (90% confident): 48.4% – 48.5%Based on 1.3M games
0%48.5%100%
Range (90% confident): 48.4% – 48.5%
Outcome Distribution
46.6%3.8%49.6%
Win
Draw
Loss
2...Bf5
Queen's Pawn Game: Chigorin Variation, Alburt Defense
Analyzen=1.3M
Avg Length33 moves
Sharpness96%
Draw Rate3.8%

What is the Queen's Pawn Game: Chigorin Variation, Alburt Defense expected score for Black?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Queen's Pawn Game: Chigorin Variation, Alburt Defense has a 48.5% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 48.4% and 48.5%), based on 1.3M Lichess games.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Time-Control Swing

Max swing: 8.0% · UltraBullet best · Classical worst

Black Win% by Rating

Declines with rating: 48% → 40%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 48.0% win rate (90,546 games)
  • 1000-1199: 47.1% win rate (137,580 games)
  • 1200-1399: 47.2% win rate (217,980 games)
  • 1400-1599: 47.5% win rate (278,587 games)
  • 1600-1799: 46.3% win rate (259,341 games)
  • 1800-1999: 45.1% win rate (166,904 games)
  • 2000-2199: 44.1% win rate (70,097 games)
  • 2200-2499: 42.7% win rate (25,326 games)
  • 2500+: 40.3% win rate (4,518 games)

Black Win% by Time Control

Best in Classical (49%), worst in UltraBullet (44%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 44.0% win rate (1,592 games)
  • Bullet: 46.0% win rate (329,854 games)
  • Blitz: 46.6% win rate (672,188 games)
  • Rapid: 47.1% win rate (239,265 games)
  • Classical: 48.7% win rate (7,980 games)

Black% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+—

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 43.5% expected score (106 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 50.0% expected score (19,701 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 50.2% expected score (45,500 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 49.3% expected score (25,004 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 56.1% expected score (235 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 48.2% expected score (162 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 47.8% expected score (34,820 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 49.0% expected score (72,408 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 49.3% expected score (29,533 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 53.2% expected score (657 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 49.8% expected score (232 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 47.6% expected score (52,922 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 49.2% expected score (120,504 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 49.7% expected score (42,896 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 51.3% expected score (1,426 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 45.8% expected score (369 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 47.5% expected score (66,319 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 49.6% expected score (154,457 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 50.5% expected score (54,740 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 53.9% expected score (2,702 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 44.4% expected score (228 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 47.0% expected score (62,284 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 48.5% expected score (145,416 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 49.4% expected score (49,607 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 50.5% expected score (1,806 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 45.4% expected score (249 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 47.0% expected score (49,113 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 47.0% expected score (87,960 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 48.1% expected score (28,618 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 47.1% expected score (964 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 38.4% expected score (214 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 46.5% expected score (27,996 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 46.4% expected score (34,125 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 47.4% expected score (7,606 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 36.1% expected score (156 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 40.5% expected score (30 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 45.0% expected score (13,216 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 46.1% expected score (10,802 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 44.4% expected score (1,244 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 38.8% expected score (34 games)
  • 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 43.7% expected score (3,483 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 44.7% expected score (1,016 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 25.7% expected score (17 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Queen's Pawn Game
50.0%
Variations (5)
Queen's Pawn Game: Accelerated London System
51.6%
Queen's Pawn Game: Modern Defense
49.2%
Queen's Pawn Game: Chigorin Variation
50.8%
Queen's Pawn Game: Zukertort Variation
51.1%
Queen's Pawn Game: Colle System
50.8%
Analyze Queen's Pawn Game: Chigorin Variation, Alburt Defense PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Queen's Pawn Game: Chigorin Variation, Alburt Defense win rate?

The Queen's Pawn Game: Chigorin Variation, Alburt Defense has a 49.6% (90% CI: 49.6%-49.7%) win rate for white, based on 1.3M rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Queen's Pawn Game: Chigorin Variation, Alburt Defense perform best?

The Queen's Pawn Game: Chigorin Variation, Alburt Defense performs best at 2200-2499 Elo with a 51.9% win rate for white (25K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Queen's Pawn Game: Chigorin Variation, Alburt Defense better in blitz or rapid?

UltraBullet (53.9%) outperforms Classical (45.9%) by 8.0%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Queen's Pawn Game: Chigorin Variation, Alburt Defense?

The Queen's Pawn Game: Chigorin Variation, Alburt Defense has a sharpness score of 96.2 (very decisive), meaning 96.2% of games end decisively. Average game length is 33 moves.

What is the Queen's Pawn Game: Chigorin Variation, Alburt Defense win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the Queen's Pawn Game: Chigorin Variation, Alburt Defense has a 48.1% (90% CI: 47.9%-48.4%) win rate for white, based on 91K Lichess games. Average game length is 27 moves with a 3.9% draw rate.

What is the Queen's Pawn Game: Chigorin Variation, Alburt Defense win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Queen's Pawn Game: Chigorin Variation, Alburt Defense has a 49.6% (90% CI: 49.3%-49.8%) win rate for white, based on 138K Lichess games. Average game length is 30 moves with a 3.3% draw rate.

What is the Queen's Pawn Game: Chigorin Variation, Alburt Defense win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Queen's Pawn Game: Chigorin Variation, Alburt Defense has a 49.4% (90% CI: 49.3%-49.6%) win rate for white, based on 218K Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 3.3% draw rate.

What is the Queen's Pawn Game: Chigorin Variation, Alburt Defense win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Queen's Pawn Game: Chigorin Variation, Alburt Defense has a 49.0% (90% CI: 48.8%-49.1%) win rate for white, based on 279K Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 3.5% draw rate.

What is the Queen's Pawn Game: Chigorin Variation, Alburt Defense win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Queen's Pawn Game: Chigorin Variation, Alburt Defense has a 49.7% (90% CI: 49.5%-49.9%) win rate for white, based on 259K Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 4.0% draw rate.

What is the Queen's Pawn Game: Chigorin Variation, Alburt Defense win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Queen's Pawn Game: Chigorin Variation, Alburt Defense has a 50.7% (90% CI: 50.5%-50.9%) win rate for white, based on 167K Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 4.3% draw rate.

What is the Queen's Pawn Game: Chigorin Variation, Alburt Defense win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Queen's Pawn Game: Chigorin Variation, Alburt Defense has a 51.2% (90% CI: 50.9%-51.5%) win rate for white, based on 70K Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 4.8% draw rate.

What is the Queen's Pawn Game: Chigorin Variation, Alburt Defense win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Queen's Pawn Game: Chigorin Variation, Alburt Defense has a 51.9% (90% CI: 51.4%-52.4%) win rate for white, based on 25K Lichess games. Average game length is 38 moves with a 5.4% draw rate.

What is the Queen's Pawn Game: Chigorin Variation, Alburt Defense win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Queen's Pawn Game: Chigorin Variation, Alburt Defense has a 52.7% (90% CI: 51.4%-53.9%) win rate for white, based on 4.5K Lichess games. Average game length is 41 moves with a 7.0% draw rate.

What is the Queen's Pawn Game: Chigorin Variation, Alburt Defense win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet games, the Queen's Pawn Game: Chigorin Variation, Alburt Defense has a 53.9% (90% CI: 51.8%-55.9%) win rate for white (1.6K Lichess games). Draw rate is 2.1%.

What is the Queen's Pawn Game: Chigorin Variation, Alburt Defense win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Queen's Pawn Game: Chigorin Variation, Alburt Defense has a 51.4% (90% CI: 51.3%-51.6%) win rate for white (330K Lichess games). Draw rate is 2.6%.

What is the Queen's Pawn Game: Chigorin Variation, Alburt Defense win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Queen's Pawn Game: Chigorin Variation, Alburt Defense has a 49.3% (90% CI: 49.2%-49.4%) win rate for white (672K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.1%.

What is the Queen's Pawn Game: Chigorin Variation, Alburt Defense win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Queen's Pawn Game: Chigorin Variation, Alburt Defense has a 48.3% (90% CI: 48.1%-48.5%) win rate for white (239K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.6%.

What is the Queen's Pawn Game: Chigorin Variation, Alburt Defense win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the Queen's Pawn Game: Chigorin Variation, Alburt Defense has a 45.9% (90% CI: 45.0%-46.8%) win rate for white (8.0K Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.4%.

Is the Queen's Pawn Game: Chigorin Variation, Alburt Defense a good opening?

The Queen's Pawn Game: Chigorin Variation, Alburt Defense is statistically balanced with a 49.6% (90% CI: 49.6%-49.7%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2200-2499 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.