Queen's Indian Defense: Kasparov-Petrosian Variation, Polovodin Gambit
899 games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
White expected score · All ratings · All speeds
49.4%
the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 52.2%.
Measured over 899 games at this level and clock.
Roughly even — the middlegame decides more than this opening choice does.
Outcomes for White
Draw 4.6 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 899 games
- Rank among the families White can choose here
- not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
- Games in this context
- 899
- Best context
- not measured yet
- Average game length
- 35 moves
- Games that end decisively
- 95.4%
- Draws
- 4.6%
Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.
Extra Analysis
Deep-dive datasets for this opening
Where it holds · White score by rating × clock
Green is clearly ahead for White, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It falls away as the rating rises: 70.0% at 0-999, 60.8% at 2500+.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1000-1199 | — | — | |||
| 1200-1399 | — | — | |||
| 1400-1599 | — | — | |||
| 1600-1799 | — | ||||
| 1800-1999 | — | — | |||
| 2000-2199 | — | ||||
| 2200-2499 | — | ||||
| 2500+ | — | — | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 0-999 rating, Bullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 61.2% expected score (3 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 43.3% expected score (6 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 16.7% expected score (3 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 45.3% expected score (9 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 46.3% expected score (12 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 37.3% expected score (22 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 42.3% expected score (37 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 23.9% expected score (10 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 51.2% expected score (40 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 47.1% expected score (50 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 39.7% expected score (13 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 45.9% expected score (35 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 35.1% expected score (69 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (19 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 53.0% expected score (65 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 49.2% expected score (120 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 44.3% expected score (16 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 78.6% expected score (2 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 47.4% expected score (76 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 56.9% expected score (180 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 44.3% expected score (16 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
- 2500+ rating, Bullet: 61.4% expected score (69 games)
- 2500+ rating, Blitz: 60.2% expected score (23 games)
Related Openings
Methodology
Across every rating and clock, the Queen's Indian Defense: Kasparov-Petrosian Variation, Polovodin Gambit scores 49.4% for White — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 46.7% and 52.2% — from 899 Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
How the figures are made
- Whose games these are
- 899+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
- Which games we count
- Rated games only — nothing casual.
- Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
- At least 2 moves played.
- A game is filed under White’s rating.
- Why every number comes with a range
- A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
- How much we need before we say anything
- An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Queen's Indian Defense: Kasparov-Petrosian Variation, Polovodin Gambit win rate?
Playing the Queen's Indian Defense: Kasparov-Petrosian Variation, Polovodin Gambit, White wins 47.1%, draws 4.6% and loses 48.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.4%. It rests on 899 rated games from Lichess.
At what rating does the Queen's Indian Defense: Kasparov-Petrosian Variation, Polovodin Gambit perform best?
The Queen's Indian Defense: Kasparov-Petrosian Variation, Polovodin Gambit performs best for White at 2500+, with an Expected Score of 61.3% (92 games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.
Is the Queen's Indian Defense: Kasparov-Petrosian Variation, Polovodin Gambit better in blitz or rapid?
For White, the Queen's Indian Defense: Kasparov-Petrosian Variation, Polovodin Gambit scores higher in Blitz: an Expected Score of 49.6% in Blitz (497 games) against 39.4% in Rapid (78 games).
How sharp is the Queen's Indian Defense: Kasparov-Petrosian Variation, Polovodin Gambit?
The Queen's Indian Defense: Kasparov-Petrosian Variation, Polovodin Gambit has a sharpness score of 95.4 (very decisive), meaning 95.4% of games end decisively. Average game length is 35 moves.
What is the Queen's Indian Defense: Kasparov-Petrosian Variation, Polovodin Gambit win rate at 1600-1799?
At 1600-1799, White wins 45.0%, draws 4.3% and loses 50.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.2%. It rests on 104 Lichess games, which average 35 moves.
What is the Queen's Indian Defense: Kasparov-Petrosian Variation, Polovodin Gambit win rate at 1800-1999?
At 1800-1999, White wins 38.2%, draws 4.4% and loses 57.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 40.4%. It rests on 123 Lichess games, which average 34 moves.
What is the Queen's Indian Defense: Kasparov-Petrosian Variation, Polovodin Gambit win rate at 2000-2199?
At 2000-2199, White wins 48.2%, draws 4.6% and loses 47.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.5%. It rests on 203 Lichess games, which average 34 moves.
What is the Queen's Indian Defense: Kasparov-Petrosian Variation, Polovodin Gambit win rate at 2200-2499?
At 2200-2499, White wins 50.8%, draws 5.6% and loses 43.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.7%. It rests on 273 Lichess games, which average 37 moves.
What is the Queen's Indian Defense: Kasparov-Petrosian Variation, Polovodin Gambit win rate in Bullet?
In Bullet, White wins 49.6%, draws 3.6% and loses 46.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.4%. It rests on 320 Lichess games.
What is the Queen's Indian Defense: Kasparov-Petrosian Variation, Polovodin Gambit win rate in Blitz?
In Blitz, White wins 46.6%, draws 5.9% and loses 47.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.6%. It rests on 497 Lichess games.
Is the Queen's Indian Defense: Kasparov-Petrosian Variation, Polovodin Gambit a good opening?
The Queen's Indian Defense: Kasparov-Petrosian Variation, Polovodin Gambit is hard work for White — it favours Black. Across all ratings, White wins 47.1% of its games and loses 48.3%. It performs best at 2500+. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.