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Queen's Indian Defense: Capablanca Variation

60K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Tough Sell
Black Expected Score46.9%Range (90% confident): 46.5% – 47.2%Based on 60K games
0%46.9%100%
Range (90% confident): 46.5% – 47.2%
Outcome Distribution
43.4%7.0%49.7%
Win
Draw
Loss
5...Bb4+
Queen's Indian Defense: Capablanca Variation
Analyzen=60K
Avg Length39 moves
Sharpness93%
Draw Rate7.0%

What is the Queen's Indian Defense: Capablanca Variation expected score for Black?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Queen's Indian Defense: Capablanca Variation has a 46.9% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 46.5% and 47.2%), based on 60K Lichess games.

Black Win% by Rating

Declines with rating: 47% → 40%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 46.5% win rate (62 games)
  • 1000-1199: 49.9% win rate (296 games)
  • 1200-1399: 44.9% win rate (1,077 games)
  • 1400-1599: 42.6% win rate (2,870 games)
  • 1600-1799: 44.9% win rate (5,401 games)
  • 1800-1999: 44.1% win rate (11,164 games)
  • 2000-2199: 43.5% win rate (17,152 games)
  • 2200-2499: 43.2% win rate (17,436 games)
  • 2500+: 39.5% win rate (4,525 games)

Black Win% by Time Control

Best in UltraBullet (54%), worst in Classical (37%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 54.3% win rate (16 games)
  • Bullet: 44.3% win rate (16,106 games)
  • Blitz: 43.1% win rate (37,052 games)
  • Rapid: 42.7% win rate (6,435 games)
  • Classical: 36.9% win rate (374 games)

Black% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999—
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+—

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 48.0% expected score (23 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 42.8% expected score (33 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 73.1% expected score (5 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 49.6% expected score (110 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 52.6% expected score (155 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (29 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 47.4% expected score (460 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 46.5% expected score (490 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 45.2% expected score (124 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 21.5% expected score (2 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 44.9% expected score (971 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 44.3% expected score (1,549 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 42.6% expected score (330 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 68.0% expected score (18 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 46.1% expected score (1,478 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 46.8% expected score (3,122 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 51.0% expected score (743 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 37.2% expected score (57 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 76.7% expected score (6 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 47.1% expected score (2,286 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 47.1% expected score (7,131 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 48.0% expected score (1,611 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 42.4% expected score (130 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 78.6% expected score (2 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 45.6% expected score (3,054 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 47.7% expected score (11,903 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 47.0% expected score (2,081 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 38.6% expected score (112 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 49.0% expected score (4,951 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 46.7% expected score (10,994 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 44.8% expected score (1,436 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 47.3% expected score (54 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 44.7% expected score (2,773 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 44.5% expected score (1,675 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 39.0% expected score (76 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (1 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Queen's Indian Defense
47.9%
Variations (5)
Queen's Indian Defense: Kasparov Variation
48.3%
Queen's Indian Defense: Classical Variation, Traditional Variation, Nimzowitsch Line
49.8%
Queen's Indian Defense: Spassky System
48.5%
Queen's Indian Defense: Classical Variation, Traditional Variation
50.0%
Queen's Indian Defense: Fianchetto Variation, Traditional Line
52.6%
Analyze Queen's Indian Defense: Capablanca Variation PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Queen's Indian Defense: Capablanca Variation win rate?

The Queen's Indian Defense: Capablanca Variation has a 49.7% (90% CI: 49.3%-50.0%) win rate for white, based on 60K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Queen's Indian Defense: Capablanca Variation perform best?

The Queen's Indian Defense: Capablanca Variation performs best at 1400-1599 Elo with a 53.9% win rate for white (2.9K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Queen's Indian Defense: Capablanca Variation better in blitz or rapid?

Bullet (50.7%) outperforms Classical (52.1%) by -1.4%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Queen's Indian Defense: Capablanca Variation?

The Queen's Indian Defense: Capablanca Variation has a sharpness score of 93.0 (decisive), meaning 93.0% of games end decisively. Average game length is 39 moves.

What is the Queen's Indian Defense: Capablanca Variation win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Queen's Indian Defense: Capablanca Variation has a 47.6% (90% CI: 42.8%-52.3%) win rate for white, based on 296 Lichess games. Average game length is 30 moves with a 2.5% draw rate.

What is the Queen's Indian Defense: Capablanca Variation win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Queen's Indian Defense: Capablanca Variation has a 51.6% (90% CI: 49.1%-54.1%) win rate for white, based on 1.1K Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 3.5% draw rate.

What is the Queen's Indian Defense: Capablanca Variation win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Queen's Indian Defense: Capablanca Variation has a 53.9% (90% CI: 52.3%-55.4%) win rate for white, based on 2.9K Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 3.5% draw rate.

What is the Queen's Indian Defense: Capablanca Variation win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Queen's Indian Defense: Capablanca Variation has a 50.8% (90% CI: 49.7%-52.0%) win rate for white, based on 5.4K Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 4.3% draw rate.

What is the Queen's Indian Defense: Capablanca Variation win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Queen's Indian Defense: Capablanca Variation has a 49.7% (90% CI: 49.0%-50.5%) win rate for white, based on 11K Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 6.2% draw rate.

What is the Queen's Indian Defense: Capablanca Variation win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Queen's Indian Defense: Capablanca Variation has a 49.1% (90% CI: 48.5%-49.7%) win rate for white, based on 17K Lichess games. Average game length is 39 moves with a 7.4% draw rate.

What is the Queen's Indian Defense: Capablanca Variation win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Queen's Indian Defense: Capablanca Variation has a 48.8% (90% CI: 48.2%-49.4%) win rate for white, based on 17K Lichess games. Average game length is 41 moves with a 8.0% draw rate.

What is the Queen's Indian Defense: Capablanca Variation win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Queen's Indian Defense: Capablanca Variation has a 50.5% (90% CI: 49.2%-51.7%) win rate for white, based on 4.5K Lichess games. Average game length is 44 moves with a 10.0% draw rate.

What is the Queen's Indian Defense: Capablanca Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Queen's Indian Defense: Capablanca Variation has a 50.7% (90% CI: 50.0%-51.3%) win rate for white (16K Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.1%.

What is the Queen's Indian Defense: Capablanca Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Queen's Indian Defense: Capablanca Variation has a 49.3% (90% CI: 48.9%-49.7%) win rate for white (37K Lichess games). Draw rate is 7.6%.

What is the Queen's Indian Defense: Capablanca Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Queen's Indian Defense: Capablanca Variation has a 48.9% (90% CI: 47.9%-50.0%) win rate for white (6.4K Lichess games). Draw rate is 8.4%.

What is the Queen's Indian Defense: Capablanca Variation win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the Queen's Indian Defense: Capablanca Variation has a 52.1% (90% CI: 47.8%-56.3%) win rate for white (374 Lichess games). Draw rate is 11.1%.

Is the Queen's Indian Defense: Capablanca Variation a good opening?

The Queen's Indian Defense: Capablanca Variation is statistically favors white with a 49.7% (90% CI: 49.3%-50.0%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 1400-1599 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.