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Queen's Gambit Accepted: Showalter Variation

508K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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White Expected Score54.7%Range (90% confident): 54.6% – 54.9%Based on 508K games
0%54.7%100%
Range (90% confident): 54.6% – 54.9%
Outcome Distribution
52.8%3.9%43.4%
Win
Draw
Loss
4.Nc3
Queen's Gambit Accepted: Showalter Variation
Analyzen=508K
Avg Length34 moves
Sharpness96%
Draw Rate3.9%

What is the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Showalter Variation expected score for White?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Showalter Variation has a 54.7% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 54.6% and 54.9%), based on 508K Lichess games.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Gambit BreakpointWhite

Peak: +11.6% · Breakpoint: Never

White Win% by Rating

Declines with rating: 53% → 49%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 53.0% win rate (10,453 games)
  • 1000-1199: 54.1% win rate (30,211 games)
  • 1200-1399: 54.7% win rate (54,851 games)
  • 1400-1599: 53.7% win rate (82,350 games)
  • 1600-1799: 52.9% win rate (105,178 games)
  • 1800-1999: 52.5% win rate (105,779 games)
  • 2000-2199: 51.5% win rate (72,595 games)
  • 2200-2499: 50.2% win rate (39,883 games)
  • 2500+: 49.4% win rate (6,959 games)

White Win% by Time Control

Best in Classical (57%), worst in Blitz (52%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 55.9% win rate (1,265 games)
  • Bullet: 53.1% win rate (261,005 games)
  • Blitz: 52.1% win rate (202,602 games)
  • Rapid: 53.6% win rate (41,700 games)
  • Classical: 56.6% win rate (1,687 games)

White% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 47.3% expected score (35 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 54.8% expected score (3,829 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 53.9% expected score (5,138 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 56.0% expected score (1,444 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (7 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 61.7% expected score (37 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 55.3% expected score (12,651 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 55.3% expected score (13,439 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 56.7% expected score (4,050 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 65.5% expected score (34 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 58.5% expected score (134 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 56.3% expected score (23,542 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 55.8% expected score (24,130 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 56.5% expected score (6,839 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 68.3% expected score (206 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 55.5% expected score (390 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 55.3% expected score (35,276 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 55.0% expected score (36,522 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 56.7% expected score (9,671 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 56.5% expected score (491 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 58.8% expected score (414 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 54.7% expected score (51,795 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 54.8% expected score (43,502 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 55.3% expected score (8,896 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 57.2% expected score (571 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 56.6% expected score (195 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 54.6% expected score (57,924 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 54.5% expected score (40,640 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 55.8% expected score (6,761 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 59.8% expected score (259 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 60.1% expected score (43 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 54.1% expected score (43,918 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 53.4% expected score (25,574 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 54.7% expected score (2,977 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 56.6% expected score (83 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 44.0% expected score (15 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 54.0% expected score (26,029 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 50.7% expected score (12,763 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 53.7% expected score (1,041 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (35 games)
  • 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 52.9% expected score (6,041 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 52.0% expected score (894 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 54.5% expected score (21 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (1 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Queen's Gambit Accepted
53.1%
Variations (5)
Queen's Gambit Accepted: Accelerated Mannheim Variation
49.8%
Queen's Gambit Accepted: Alekhine Defense
50.8%
Queen's Gambit Accepted: Alekhine Defense, Borisenko-Furman Variation
49.2%
Queen's Gambit Accepted: Alekhine Defense, Haberditz Variation
53.0%
Queen's Gambit Accepted: Bogoljubov Defense
52.2%
Analyze Queen's Gambit Accepted: Showalter Variation PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Showalter Variation win rate?

The Queen's Gambit Accepted: Showalter Variation has a 52.8% (90% CI: 52.7%-52.9%) win rate for white, based on 508K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Showalter Variation perform best?

The Queen's Gambit Accepted: Showalter Variation performs best at 1200-1399 Elo with a 54.7% win rate for white (55K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Showalter Variation better in blitz or rapid?

Classical (56.6%) outperforms Blitz (52.1%) by 4.5%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Showalter Variation?

The Queen's Gambit Accepted: Showalter Variation has a sharpness score of 96.1 (very decisive), meaning 96.1% of games end decisively. Average game length is 34 moves.

What is the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Showalter Variation win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Showalter Variation has a 53.0% (90% CI: 52.2%-53.8%) win rate for white, based on 10K Lichess games. Average game length is 26 moves with a 2.9% draw rate.

What is the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Showalter Variation win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Showalter Variation has a 54.1% (90% CI: 53.6%-54.5%) win rate for white, based on 30K Lichess games. Average game length is 28 moves with a 2.8% draw rate.

What is the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Showalter Variation win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Showalter Variation has a 54.7% (90% CI: 54.4%-55.1%) win rate for white, based on 55K Lichess games. Average game length is 30 moves with a 2.9% draw rate.

What is the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Showalter Variation win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Showalter Variation has a 53.7% (90% CI: 53.4%-54.0%) win rate for white, based on 82K Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 3.1% draw rate.

What is the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Showalter Variation win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Showalter Variation has a 52.9% (90% CI: 52.7%-53.2%) win rate for white, based on 105K Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 3.7% draw rate.

What is the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Showalter Variation win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Showalter Variation has a 52.5% (90% CI: 52.2%-52.8%) win rate for white, based on 106K Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 4.2% draw rate.

What is the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Showalter Variation win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Showalter Variation has a 51.5% (90% CI: 51.2%-51.8%) win rate for white, based on 73K Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 4.7% draw rate.

What is the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Showalter Variation win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Showalter Variation has a 50.2% (90% CI: 49.8%-50.6%) win rate for white, based on 40K Lichess games. Average game length is 38 moves with a 5.5% draw rate.

What is the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Showalter Variation win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Showalter Variation has a 49.4% (90% CI: 48.4%-50.4%) win rate for white, based on 7.0K Lichess games. Average game length is 40 moves with a 6.7% draw rate.

What is the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Showalter Variation win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet games, the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Showalter Variation has a 55.9% (90% CI: 53.6%-58.2%) win rate for white (1.3K Lichess games). Draw rate is 2.3%.

What is the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Showalter Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Showalter Variation has a 53.1% (90% CI: 52.9%-53.3%) win rate for white (261K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.2%.

What is the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Showalter Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Showalter Variation has a 52.1% (90% CI: 52.0%-52.3%) win rate for white (203K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.6%.

What is the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Showalter Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Showalter Variation has a 53.6% (90% CI: 53.2%-54.0%) win rate for white (42K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.8%.

What is the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Showalter Variation win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Showalter Variation has a 56.6% (90% CI: 54.6%-58.6%) win rate for white (1.7K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.3%.

Is the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Showalter Variation a good opening?

The Queen's Gambit Accepted: Showalter Variation is statistically favors white with a 52.8% (90% CI: 52.7%-52.9%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 1200-1399 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.