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Analyzer

Queen's Gambit Accepted: Rosenthal Variation

697K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Tough Sell
Black Expected Score43.8%Range (90% confident): 43.7% – 43.9%Based on 697K games
0%43.8%100%
Range (90% confident): 43.7% – 43.9%
Outcome Distribution
41.8%3.9%54.2%
Win
Draw
Loss
3...e6
Queen's Gambit Accepted: Rosenthal Variation
Analyzen=697K
Avg Length34 moves
Sharpness96%
Draw Rate3.9%

What is the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Rosenthal Variation expected score for Black?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Rosenthal Variation has a 43.8% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 43.7% and 43.9%), based on 697K Lichess games.

Black Win% by Rating

Declines with rating: 43% → 39%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 42.5% win rate (24,656 games)
  • 1000-1199: 41.6% win rate (56,417 games)
  • 1200-1399: 41.9% win rate (96,110 games)
  • 1400-1599: 41.6% win rate (143,122 games)
  • 1600-1799: 42.0% win rate (159,830 games)
  • 1800-1999: 42.0% win rate (125,408 games)
  • 2000-2199: 41.6% win rate (60,529 games)
  • 2200-2499: 41.9% win rate (27,072 games)
  • 2500+: 39.1% win rate (4,351 games)

Black Win% by Time Control

Best in Bullet (42%), worst in Classical (37%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 37.8% win rate (1,626 games)
  • Bullet: 42.4% win rate (282,064 games)
  • Blitz: 42.0% win rate (322,200 games)
  • Rapid: 39.9% win rate (88,018 games)
  • Classical: 36.6% win rate (3,587 games)

Black% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+—

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 43.0% expected score (27 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 45.8% expected score (7,274 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 43.8% expected score (12,955 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 42.5% expected score (4,380 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 33.8% expected score (20 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 35.9% expected score (101 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 43.4% expected score (19,939 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 43.6% expected score (26,921 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 41.5% expected score (9,314 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 36.4% expected score (142 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 43.6% expected score (264 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 43.6% expected score (37,440 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 43.7% expected score (44,312 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 41.5% expected score (13,588 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 41.1% expected score (506 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 40.7% expected score (402 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 43.3% expected score (54,632 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 44.1% expected score (68,339 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 41.7% expected score (18,685 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 36.8% expected score (1,064 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 36.3% expected score (538 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 43.4% expected score (61,028 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 44.7% expected score (76,253 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 43.4% expected score (20,853 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 42.0% expected score (1,158 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 36.1% expected score (214 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 44.3% expected score (51,049 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 44.6% expected score (58,277 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 43.1% expected score (15,322 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 40.8% expected score (546 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 43.0% expected score (62 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 44.6% expected score (30,265 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 44.0% expected score (25,243 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 41.6% expected score (4,831 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 34.2% expected score (128 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 24.4% expected score (18 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 44.6% expected score (16,972 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 46.5% expected score (9,076 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 43.1% expected score (989 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 47.3% expected score (17 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 45.1% expected score (3,465 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 42.0% expected score (824 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 55.2% expected score (56 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 56.7% expected score (6 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Queen's Gambit Accepted
53.1%
Variations (5)
Queen's Gambit Accepted: Old Variation
54.9%
Queen's Gambit Accepted: Saduleto Variation
55.4%
Queen's Gambit Accepted: Central Variation, Greco Variation
52.2%
Queen's Gambit Accepted: Normal Variation
55.4%
Queen's Gambit Accepted: Central Variation, Alekhine System
53.6%
Analyze Queen's Gambit Accepted: Rosenthal Variation PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Rosenthal Variation win rate?

The Queen's Gambit Accepted: Rosenthal Variation has a 54.2% (90% CI: 54.1%-54.3%) win rate for white, based on 697K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Rosenthal Variation perform best?

The Queen's Gambit Accepted: Rosenthal Variation performs best at 1000-1199 Elo with a 55.3% win rate for white (56K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Rosenthal Variation better in blitz or rapid?

UltraBullet (60.5%) outperforms Blitz (53.5%) by 7.0%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Rosenthal Variation?

The Queen's Gambit Accepted: Rosenthal Variation has a sharpness score of 96.1 (very decisive), meaning 96.1% of games end decisively. Average game length is 34 moves.

What is the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Rosenthal Variation win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Rosenthal Variation has a 54.4% (90% CI: 53.8%-54.9%) win rate for white, based on 25K Lichess games. Average game length is 27 moves with a 3.1% draw rate.

What is the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Rosenthal Variation win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Rosenthal Variation has a 55.3% (90% CI: 54.9%-55.6%) win rate for white, based on 56K Lichess games. Average game length is 29 moves with a 3.1% draw rate.

What is the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Rosenthal Variation win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Rosenthal Variation has a 55.2% (90% CI: 54.9%-55.4%) win rate for white, based on 96K Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 3.0% draw rate.

What is the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Rosenthal Variation win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Rosenthal Variation has a 54.8% (90% CI: 54.6%-55.1%) win rate for white, based on 143K Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 3.5% draw rate.

What is the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Rosenthal Variation win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Rosenthal Variation has a 54.1% (90% CI: 53.9%-54.3%) win rate for white, based on 160K Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 3.9% draw rate.

What is the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Rosenthal Variation win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Rosenthal Variation has a 53.6% (90% CI: 53.4%-53.8%) win rate for white, based on 125K Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 4.4% draw rate.

What is the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Rosenthal Variation win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Rosenthal Variation has a 53.5% (90% CI: 53.1%-53.8%) win rate for white, based on 61K Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 4.9% draw rate.

What is the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Rosenthal Variation win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Rosenthal Variation has a 51.6% (90% CI: 51.1%-52.1%) win rate for white, based on 27K Lichess games. Average game length is 38 moves with a 6.5% draw rate.

What is the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Rosenthal Variation win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Rosenthal Variation has a 49.8% (90% CI: 48.6%-51.1%) win rate for white, based on 4.4K Lichess games. Average game length is 42 moves with a 11.1% draw rate.

What is the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Rosenthal Variation win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet games, the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Rosenthal Variation has a 60.5% (90% CI: 58.5%-62.5%) win rate for white (1.6K Lichess games). Draw rate is 1.7%.

What is the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Rosenthal Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Rosenthal Variation has a 54.7% (90% CI: 54.6%-54.9%) win rate for white (282K Lichess games). Draw rate is 2.9%.

What is the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Rosenthal Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Rosenthal Variation has a 53.5% (90% CI: 53.3%-53.6%) win rate for white (322K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.6%.

What is the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Rosenthal Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Rosenthal Variation has a 55.3% (90% CI: 55.0%-55.6%) win rate for white (88K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.8%.

What is the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Rosenthal Variation win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Rosenthal Variation has a 57.4% (90% CI: 56.0%-58.7%) win rate for white (3.6K Lichess games). Draw rate is 6.0%.

Is the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Rosenthal Variation a good opening?

The Queen's Gambit Accepted: Rosenthal Variation is statistically favors white with a 54.2% (90% CI: 54.1%-54.3%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 1000-1199 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.