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Queen's Gambit Accepted: Central Variation, Modern Defense

661K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Tough Sell
Black Expected Score44.9%Range (90% confident): 44.8% – 45.0%Based on 661K games
0%44.9%100%
Range (90% confident): 44.8% – 45.0%
Outcome Distribution
43.0%3.8%53.2%
Win
Draw
Loss
3...Nc6
Queen's Gambit Accepted: Central Variation, Modern Defense
Analyzen=661K
Avg Length30 moves
Sharpness96%
Draw Rate3.8%

What is the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Central Variation, Modern Defense expected score for Black?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Central Variation, Modern Defense has a 44.9% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 44.8% and 45.0%), based on 661K Lichess games.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Traps & Chaos

Complexity: 91.9 · Trap factor: -2.5 · n=661K

Black Win% by Rating

Declines with rating: 44% → 37%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 43.9% win rate (77,681 games)
  • 1000-1199: 42.0% win rate (127,608 games)
  • 1200-1399: 42.7% win rate (147,448 games)
  • 1400-1599: 43.5% win rate (143,242 games)
  • 1600-1799: 43.3% win rate (102,276 games)
  • 1800-1999: 43.4% win rate (45,806 games)
  • 2000-2199: 43.5% win rate (11,597 games)
  • 2200-2499: 44.8% win rate (4,313 games)
  • 2500+: 37.4% win rate (783 games)

Black Win% by Time Control

Best in Bullet (45%), worst in Classical (39%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 41.7% win rate (225 games)
  • Bullet: 44.8% win rate (125,152 games)
  • Blitz: 43.1% win rate (351,275 games)
  • Rapid: 41.9% win rate (177,574 games)
  • Classical: 38.7% win rate (6,528 games)

Black% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199—
2200-2499
2500+——

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (36 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 45.9% expected score (17,954 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 45.7% expected score (41,163 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 45.8% expected score (18,431 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 51.0% expected score (97 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 36.8% expected score (63 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 45.0% expected score (26,348 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 43.7% expected score (65,808 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 43.2% expected score (34,858 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 43.2% expected score (531 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 43.6% expected score (53 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 45.8% expected score (27,966 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 44.8% expected score (77,909 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 43.1% expected score (39,775 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 41.8% expected score (1,745 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 38.8% expected score (52 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 46.0% expected score (23,137 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 45.8% expected score (78,154 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 44.3% expected score (39,707 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 41.4% expected score (2,192 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 52.6% expected score (18 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 47.2% expected score (15,673 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 45.3% expected score (55,372 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 44.8% expected score (29,745 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 39.2% expected score (1,468 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 21.5% expected score (2 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 47.5% expected score (8,679 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 45.7% expected score (24,034 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 44.8% expected score (12,652 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 38.2% expected score (439 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 48.1% expected score (3,743 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 45.4% expected score (5,613 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 44.2% expected score (2,187 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 42.8% expected score (54 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 48.0% expected score (1,251 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 48.4% expected score (2,847 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 39.3% expected score (212 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 35.7% expected score (2 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 45.9% expected score (401 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 39.3% expected score (375 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 20.6% expected score (7 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Queen's Gambit Accepted
53.1%
Variations (5)
Queen's Gambit Accepted: Old Variation
54.9%
Queen's Gambit Accepted: Saduleto Variation
55.4%
Queen's Gambit Accepted: Central Variation, Greco Variation
52.2%
Queen's Gambit Accepted: Normal Variation
55.4%
Queen's Gambit Accepted: Central Variation, Alekhine System
53.6%
Analyze Queen's Gambit Accepted: Central Variation, Modern Defense PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Central Variation, Modern Defense win rate?

The Queen's Gambit Accepted: Central Variation, Modern Defense has a 53.2% (90% CI: 53.1%-53.3%) win rate for white, based on 661K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Central Variation, Modern Defense perform best?

The Queen's Gambit Accepted: Central Variation, Modern Defense performs best at 1000-1199 Elo with a 54.4% win rate for white (128K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Central Variation, Modern Defense better in blitz or rapid?

Classical (56.6%) outperforms UltraBullet (57.6%) by -1.0%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Central Variation, Modern Defense?

The Queen's Gambit Accepted: Central Variation, Modern Defense has a sharpness score of 96.2 (very decisive), meaning 96.2% of games end decisively. Average game length is 30 moves.

What is the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Central Variation, Modern Defense win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Central Variation, Modern Defense has a 52.4% (90% CI: 52.1%-52.7%) win rate for white, based on 78K Lichess games. Average game length is 26 moves with a 3.7% draw rate.

What is the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Central Variation, Modern Defense win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Central Variation, Modern Defense has a 54.4% (90% CI: 54.2%-54.6%) win rate for white, based on 128K Lichess games. Average game length is 28 moves with a 3.5% draw rate.

What is the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Central Variation, Modern Defense win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Central Variation, Modern Defense has a 53.8% (90% CI: 53.6%-54.1%) win rate for white, based on 147K Lichess games. Average game length is 29 moves with a 3.4% draw rate.

What is the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Central Variation, Modern Defense win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Central Variation, Modern Defense has a 52.8% (90% CI: 52.6%-53.0%) win rate for white, based on 143K Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 3.7% draw rate.

What is the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Central Variation, Modern Defense win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Central Variation, Modern Defense has a 52.6% (90% CI: 52.4%-52.9%) win rate for white, based on 102K Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 4.0% draw rate.

What is the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Central Variation, Modern Defense win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Central Variation, Modern Defense has a 52.1% (90% CI: 51.7%-52.4%) win rate for white, based on 46K Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 4.5% draw rate.

What is the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Central Variation, Modern Defense win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Central Variation, Modern Defense has a 51.6% (90% CI: 50.8%-52.3%) win rate for white, based on 12K Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 4.9% draw rate.

What is the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Central Variation, Modern Defense win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Central Variation, Modern Defense has a 49.1% (90% CI: 47.9%-50.4%) win rate for white, based on 4.3K Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 6.1% draw rate.

What is the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Central Variation, Modern Defense win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Central Variation, Modern Defense has a 52.6% (90% CI: 49.6%-55.5%) win rate for white, based on 783 Lichess games. Average game length is 41 moves with a 10.0% draw rate.

What is the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Central Variation, Modern Defense win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet games, the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Central Variation, Modern Defense has a 57.6% (90% CI: 52.2%-63.0%) win rate for white (225 Lichess games). Draw rate is 0.7%.

What is the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Central Variation, Modern Defense win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Central Variation, Modern Defense has a 52.7% (90% CI: 52.5%-53.0%) win rate for white (125K Lichess games). Draw rate is 2.4%.

What is the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Central Variation, Modern Defense win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Central Variation, Modern Defense has a 53.0% (90% CI: 52.8%-53.1%) win rate for white (351K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.0%.

What is the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Central Variation, Modern Defense win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Central Variation, Modern Defense has a 53.8% (90% CI: 53.6%-54.0%) win rate for white (178K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.2%.

What is the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Central Variation, Modern Defense win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Central Variation, Modern Defense has a 56.6% (90% CI: 55.6%-57.6%) win rate for white (6.5K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.7%.

Is the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Central Variation, Modern Defense a good opening?

The Queen's Gambit Accepted: Central Variation, Modern Defense is statistically favors white with a 53.2% (90% CI: 53.1%-53.3%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 1000-1199 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.