TrueEloPlay what wins.
Analyzer

Queen's Gambit Accepted: Central Variation, McDonnell Defense, Somov Gambit

56K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Playable
White Expected Score49.7%Range (90% confident): 49.4% – 50.1%Based on 56K games
0%49.7%100%
Range (90% confident): 49.4% – 50.1%
Outcome Distribution
47.7%4.0%48.3%
Win
Draw
Loss
4.Bxc4
Queen's Gambit Accepted: Central Variation, McDonnell Defense, Somov Gambit
Analyzen=56K
Avg Length31 moves
Sharpness96%
Draw Rate4.0%

What is the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Central Variation, McDonnell Defense, Somov Gambit expected score for White?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Central Variation, McDonnell Defense, Somov Gambit has a 49.7% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 49.4% and 50.1%), based on 56K Lichess games.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Gambit BreakpointWhite

Peak: -0.5% · Breakpoint: 0-999

Traps & Chaos

Complexity: 93.4 · Trap factor: +9.3 · n=56K

White Win% by Rating

Declines with rating: 49% → 46%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 49.0% win rate (4,937 games)
  • 1000-1199: 48.7% win rate (8,690 games)
  • 1200-1399: 48.3% win rate (11,348 games)
  • 1400-1599: 46.1% win rate (11,615 games)
  • 1600-1799: 47.5% win rate (9,241 games)
  • 1800-1999: 46.6% win rate (5,924 games)
  • 2000-2199: 48.3% win rate (2,739 games)
  • 2200-2499: 48.9% win rate (991 games)
  • 2500+: 45.6% win rate (118 games)

White Win% by Time Control

Best in UltraBullet (51%), worst in Rapid (47%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 50.6% win rate (37 games)
  • Bullet: 48.9% win rate (12,405 games)
  • Blitz: 47.3% win rate (28,542 games)
  • Rapid: 47.1% win rate (14,018 games)
  • Classical: 49.9% win rate (601 games)

White% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999—
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+——

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 50.9% expected score (1,305 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 50.1% expected score (2,465 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 52.7% expected score (1,162 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 42.4% expected score (5 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 81.6% expected score (8 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 50.3% expected score (2,095 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 50.2% expected score (4,442 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 52.0% expected score (2,092 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 49.1% expected score (53 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 42.4% expected score (5 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 51.2% expected score (2,326 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 49.8% expected score (5,817 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 49.8% expected score (3,072 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 53.5% expected score (128 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (10 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 49.1% expected score (2,179 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 48.3% expected score (5,876 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 48.2% expected score (3,345 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 52.0% expected score (205 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 20.6% expected score (7 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 49.2% expected score (1,749 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 49.5% expected score (4,870 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 49.2% expected score (2,473 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 58.4% expected score (142 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (5 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 48.7% expected score (1,405 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 49.6% expected score (3,107 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 46.6% expected score (1,359 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 48.0% expected score (48 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 51.5% expected score (844 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 50.2% expected score (1,429 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (446 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 32.9% expected score (19 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 53.3% expected score (431 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 50.9% expected score (495 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 44.6% expected score (63 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 52.1% expected score (71 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 41.8% expected score (41 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 63.4% expected score (6 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Queen's Gambit Accepted
53.1%
Variations (5)
Queen's Gambit Accepted: Accelerated Mannheim Variation
49.8%
Queen's Gambit Accepted: Alekhine Defense
50.8%
Queen's Gambit Accepted: Alekhine Defense, Borisenko-Furman Variation
49.2%
Queen's Gambit Accepted: Alekhine Defense, Haberditz Variation
53.0%
Queen's Gambit Accepted: Bogoljubov Defense
52.2%
Analyze Queen's Gambit Accepted: Central Variation, McDonnell Defense, Somov Gambit PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Central Variation, McDonnell Defense, Somov Gambit win rate?

The Queen's Gambit Accepted: Central Variation, McDonnell Defense, Somov Gambit has a 47.7% (90% CI: 47.3%-48.0%) win rate for white, based on 56K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Central Variation, McDonnell Defense, Somov Gambit perform best?

The Queen's Gambit Accepted: Central Variation, McDonnell Defense, Somov Gambit performs best at 0-999 Elo with a 49.0% win rate for white (4.9K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Central Variation, McDonnell Defense, Somov Gambit better in blitz or rapid?

Bullet (48.9%) outperforms Rapid (47.1%) by 1.8%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Central Variation, McDonnell Defense, Somov Gambit?

The Queen's Gambit Accepted: Central Variation, McDonnell Defense, Somov Gambit has a sharpness score of 96.0 (very decisive), meaning 96.0% of games end decisively. Average game length is 31 moves.

What is the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Central Variation, McDonnell Defense, Somov Gambit win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Central Variation, McDonnell Defense, Somov Gambit has a 49.0% (90% CI: 47.9%-50.2%) win rate for white, based on 4.9K Lichess games. Average game length is 26 moves with a 3.7% draw rate.

What is the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Central Variation, McDonnell Defense, Somov Gambit win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Central Variation, McDonnell Defense, Somov Gambit has a 48.7% (90% CI: 47.8%-49.6%) win rate for white, based on 8.7K Lichess games. Average game length is 28 moves with a 3.9% draw rate.

What is the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Central Variation, McDonnell Defense, Somov Gambit win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Central Variation, McDonnell Defense, Somov Gambit has a 48.3% (90% CI: 47.6%-49.1%) win rate for white, based on 11K Lichess games. Average game length is 30 moves with a 3.6% draw rate.

What is the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Central Variation, McDonnell Defense, Somov Gambit win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Central Variation, McDonnell Defense, Somov Gambit has a 46.1% (90% CI: 45.4%-46.9%) win rate for white, based on 12K Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 4.6% draw rate.

What is the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Central Variation, McDonnell Defense, Somov Gambit win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Central Variation, McDonnell Defense, Somov Gambit has a 47.5% (90% CI: 46.6%-48.3%) win rate for white, based on 9.2K Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 3.9% draw rate.

What is the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Central Variation, McDonnell Defense, Somov Gambit win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Central Variation, McDonnell Defense, Somov Gambit has a 46.6% (90% CI: 45.5%-47.7%) win rate for white, based on 5.9K Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 4.1% draw rate.

What is the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Central Variation, McDonnell Defense, Somov Gambit win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Central Variation, McDonnell Defense, Somov Gambit has a 48.3% (90% CI: 46.7%-49.8%) win rate for white, based on 2.7K Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 4.3% draw rate.

What is the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Central Variation, McDonnell Defense, Somov Gambit win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Central Variation, McDonnell Defense, Somov Gambit has a 48.9% (90% CI: 46.3%-51.5%) win rate for white, based on 991 Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 5.2% draw rate.

What is the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Central Variation, McDonnell Defense, Somov Gambit win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Central Variation, McDonnell Defense, Somov Gambit has a 45.6% (90% CI: 38.2%-53.1%) win rate for white, based on 118 Lichess games. Average game length is 39 moves with a 7.1% draw rate.

What is the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Central Variation, McDonnell Defense, Somov Gambit win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Central Variation, McDonnell Defense, Somov Gambit has a 48.9% (90% CI: 48.2%-49.6%) win rate for white (12K Lichess games). Draw rate is 2.6%.

What is the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Central Variation, McDonnell Defense, Somov Gambit win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Central Variation, McDonnell Defense, Somov Gambit has a 47.3% (90% CI: 46.9%-47.8%) win rate for white (29K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.3%.

What is the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Central Variation, McDonnell Defense, Somov Gambit win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Central Variation, McDonnell Defense, Somov Gambit has a 47.1% (90% CI: 46.5%-47.8%) win rate for white (14K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.8%.

What is the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Central Variation, McDonnell Defense, Somov Gambit win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Central Variation, McDonnell Defense, Somov Gambit has a 49.9% (90% CI: 46.5%-53.2%) win rate for white (601 Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.1%.

Is the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Central Variation, McDonnell Defense, Somov Gambit a good opening?

The Queen's Gambit Accepted: Central Variation, McDonnell Defense, Somov Gambit is statistically balanced with a 47.7% (90% CI: 47.3%-48.0%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 0-999 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.