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Petrov's Defense: Paulsen Attack

66K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Playable
White Expected Score49.4%Range (90% confident): 49.1% – 49.8%Based on 66K games
0%49.4%100%
Range (90% confident): 49.1% – 49.8%
Outcome Distribution
47.1%4.7%48.3%
Win
Draw
Loss
4.Nc4
Petrov's Defense: Paulsen Attack
Analyzen=66K
Avg Length34 moves
Sharpness95%
Draw Rate4.7%

What is the Petrov's Defense: Paulsen Attack expected score for White?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Petrov's Defense: Paulsen Attack has a 49.4% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 49.1% and 49.8%), based on 66K Lichess games.

White Win% by Rating

Improves with rating: 45% → 51%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 45.3% win rate (8,370 games)
  • 1000-1199: 45.8% win rate (6,743 games)
  • 1200-1399: 45.9% win rate (7,506 games)
  • 1400-1599: 47.0% win rate (9,122 games)
  • 1600-1799: 47.6% win rate (10,779 games)
  • 1800-1999: 47.0% win rate (11,363 games)
  • 2000-2199: 48.6% win rate (7,185 games)
  • 2200-2499: 50.8% win rate (4,097 games)
  • 2500+: 50.8% win rate (928 games)

White Win% by Time Control

Best in Blitz (48%), worst in UltraBullet (35%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 34.9% win rate (20 games)
  • Bullet: 46.8% win rate (12,822 games)
  • Blitz: 47.7% win rate (36,181 games)
  • Rapid: 46.0% win rate (16,350 games)
  • Classical: 45.3% win rate (720 games)

White% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499—
2500+——

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (4 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 43.1% expected score (1,212 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 48.8% expected score (3,679 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 47.7% expected score (3,438 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 55.2% expected score (37 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 31.9% expected score (4 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 46.1% expected score (1,263 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 48.2% expected score (3,148 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 47.7% expected score (2,243 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 49.4% expected score (85 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (6 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 45.8% expected score (1,481 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 47.8% expected score (3,670 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 48.3% expected score (2,221 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (128 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 48.1% expected score (1,939 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 49.6% expected score (4,667 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 48.2% expected score (2,323 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 44.9% expected score (191 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 47.8% expected score (1,883 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 50.4% expected score (6,434 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 51.2% expected score (2,298 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 44.9% expected score (163 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 21.5% expected score (2 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 48.1% expected score (1,834 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 50.3% expected score (7,095 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 48.7% expected score (2,347 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 48.9% expected score (85 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 50.5% expected score (1,539 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 52.2% expected score (4,420 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 50.1% expected score (1,202 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (23 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 54.9% expected score (1,205 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 54.3% expected score (2,616 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 52.6% expected score (268 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 55.3% expected score (8 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 54.3% expected score (466 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 56.3% expected score (452 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 41.3% expected score (10 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Petrov's Defense
49.1%
Variations (5)
Petrov's Defense: Classical Attack
50.2%
Petrov's Defense: Classical Attack, Berger Variation
41.7%
Petrov's Defense: Classical Attack, Chigorin Variation
45.3%
Petrov's Defense: Classical Attack, Chigorin Variation, Browne Attack
46.5%
Petrov's Defense: Classical Attack, Chigorin Variation, Main Line
38.0%
Analyze Petrov's Defense: Paulsen Attack PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Petrov's Defense: Paulsen Attack win rate?

The Petrov's Defense: Paulsen Attack has a 47.1% (90% CI: 46.8%-47.4%) win rate for white, based on 66K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Petrov's Defense: Paulsen Attack perform best?

The Petrov's Defense: Paulsen Attack performs best at 2200-2499 Elo with a 50.8% win rate for white (4.1K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Petrov's Defense: Paulsen Attack better in blitz or rapid?

Blitz (47.7%) outperforms Classical (45.3%) by 2.4%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Petrov's Defense: Paulsen Attack?

The Petrov's Defense: Paulsen Attack has a sharpness score of 95.3 (very decisive), meaning 95.3% of games end decisively. Average game length is 34 moves.

What is the Petrov's Defense: Paulsen Attack win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the Petrov's Defense: Paulsen Attack has a 45.3% (90% CI: 44.4%-46.2%) win rate for white, based on 8.4K Lichess games. Average game length is 28 moves with a 4.4% draw rate.

What is the Petrov's Defense: Paulsen Attack win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Petrov's Defense: Paulsen Attack has a 45.8% (90% CI: 44.8%-46.8%) win rate for white, based on 6.7K Lichess games. Average game length is 30 moves with a 3.7% draw rate.

What is the Petrov's Defense: Paulsen Attack win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Petrov's Defense: Paulsen Attack has a 45.9% (90% CI: 45.0%-46.9%) win rate for white, based on 7.5K Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 3.3% draw rate.

What is the Petrov's Defense: Paulsen Attack win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Petrov's Defense: Paulsen Attack has a 47.0% (90% CI: 46.1%-47.8%) win rate for white, based on 9.1K Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 3.7% draw rate.

What is the Petrov's Defense: Paulsen Attack win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Petrov's Defense: Paulsen Attack has a 47.6% (90% CI: 46.8%-48.4%) win rate for white, based on 11K Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 4.8% draw rate.

What is the Petrov's Defense: Paulsen Attack win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Petrov's Defense: Paulsen Attack has a 47.0% (90% CI: 46.2%-47.8%) win rate for white, based on 11K Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 5.1% draw rate.

What is the Petrov's Defense: Paulsen Attack win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Petrov's Defense: Paulsen Attack has a 48.6% (90% CI: 47.6%-49.6%) win rate for white, based on 7.2K Lichess games. Average game length is 38 moves with a 5.7% draw rate.

What is the Petrov's Defense: Paulsen Attack win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Petrov's Defense: Paulsen Attack has a 50.8% (90% CI: 49.5%-52.1%) win rate for white, based on 4.1K Lichess games. Average game length is 40 moves with a 7.1% draw rate.

What is the Petrov's Defense: Paulsen Attack win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Petrov's Defense: Paulsen Attack has a 50.8% (90% CI: 48.1%-53.5%) win rate for white, based on 928 Lichess games. Average game length is 43 moves with a 8.6% draw rate.

What is the Petrov's Defense: Paulsen Attack win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Petrov's Defense: Paulsen Attack has a 46.8% (90% CI: 46.1%-47.5%) win rate for white (13K Lichess games). Draw rate is 2.9%.

What is the Petrov's Defense: Paulsen Attack win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Petrov's Defense: Paulsen Attack has a 47.7% (90% CI: 47.3%-48.2%) win rate for white (36K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.9%.

What is the Petrov's Defense: Paulsen Attack win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Petrov's Defense: Paulsen Attack has a 46.0% (90% CI: 45.3%-46.6%) win rate for white (16K Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.5%.

What is the Petrov's Defense: Paulsen Attack win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the Petrov's Defense: Paulsen Attack has a 45.3% (90% CI: 42.2%-48.3%) win rate for white (720 Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.6%.

Is the Petrov's Defense: Paulsen Attack a good opening?

The Petrov's Defense: Paulsen Attack is statistically balanced with a 47.1% (90% CI: 46.8%-47.4%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2200-2499 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.