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Analyzer

Petrov's Defense: Moody Gambit

5.2K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Tough Sell
White Expected Score47.5%Range (90% confident): 46.4% – 48.7%Based on 5.2K games
0%47.5%100%
Range (90% confident): 46.4% – 48.7%
Outcome Distribution
45.9%3.2%50.9%
Win
Draw
Loss
4.d4
Petrov's Defense: Moody Gambit
Analyzen=5.2K
Avg Length28 moves
Sharpness97%
Draw Rate3.2%

What is the Petrov's Defense: Moody Gambit expected score for White?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Petrov's Defense: Moody Gambit has a 47.5% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 46.4% and 48.7%), based on 5.2K Lichess games.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Gambit BreakpointWhite

Peak: +12.4% · Breakpoint: 0-999

White Win% by Rating

Improves with rating: 44% → 49%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 44.1% win rate (1,922 games)
  • 1000-1199: 47.0% win rate (1,352 games)
  • 1200-1399: 43.5% win rate (655 games)
  • 1400-1599: 41.0% win rate (407 games)
  • 1600-1799: 40.4% win rate (173 games)
  • 1800-1999: 53.4% win rate (267 games)
  • 2000-2199: 58.5% win rate (196 games)
  • 2200-2499: 61.4% win rate (97 games)
  • 2500+: 48.7% win rate (135 games)

White Win% by Time Control

Best in UltraBullet (70%), worst in Rapid (42%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 70.4% win rate (12 games)
  • Bullet: 48.3% win rate (1,400 games)
  • Blitz: 46.8% win rate (2,297 games)
  • Rapid: 41.9% win rate (1,452 games)
  • Classical: 46.1% win rate (43 games)

White% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999——
2000-2199——
2200-2499——
2500+————

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 43.1% expected score (294 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 48.0% expected score (967 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 44.8% expected score (654 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 43.3% expected score (6 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 78.6% expected score (2 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 46.1% expected score (191 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 50.7% expected score (745 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 45.3% expected score (403 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 62.0% expected score (11 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 86.4% expected score (4 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 39.3% expected score (143 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 48.6% expected score (285 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 43.8% expected score (209 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 30.7% expected score (14 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 78.6% expected score (2 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 42.6% expected score (107 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 47.5% expected score (158 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 34.7% expected score (129 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 54.0% expected score (11 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 38.9% expected score (3 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 43.3% expected score (66 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 40.0% expected score (63 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 42.8% expected score (40 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 58.6% expected score (209 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 40.9% expected score (48 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 32.6% expected score (10 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 59.5% expected score (188 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 42.4% expected score (5 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 61.2% expected score (3 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 64.6% expected score (67 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 64.6% expected score (26 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (4 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 50.4% expected score (135 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Petrov's Defense
49.1%
Variations (5)
Petrov's Defense: Classical Attack
50.2%
Petrov's Defense: Classical Attack, Berger Variation
41.7%
Petrov's Defense: Classical Attack, Chigorin Variation
45.3%
Petrov's Defense: Classical Attack, Chigorin Variation, Browne Attack
46.5%
Petrov's Defense: Classical Attack, Chigorin Variation, Main Line
38.0%
Analyze Petrov's Defense: Moody Gambit PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Petrov's Defense: Moody Gambit win rate?

The Petrov's Defense: Moody Gambit has a 45.9% (90% CI: 44.8%-47.1%) win rate for white, based on 5.2K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Petrov's Defense: Moody Gambit perform best?

The Petrov's Defense: Moody Gambit performs best at 2200-2499 Elo with a 61.4% win rate for white (97 games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Petrov's Defense: Moody Gambit better in blitz or rapid?

Bullet (48.3%) outperforms Rapid (41.9%) by 6.4%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Petrov's Defense: Moody Gambit?

The Petrov's Defense: Moody Gambit has a sharpness score of 96.8 (very decisive), meaning 96.8% of games end decisively. Average game length is 28 moves.

What is the Petrov's Defense: Moody Gambit win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the Petrov's Defense: Moody Gambit has a 44.1% (90% CI: 42.3%-46.0%) win rate for white, based on 1.9K Lichess games. Average game length is 26 moves with a 3.9% draw rate.

What is the Petrov's Defense: Moody Gambit win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Petrov's Defense: Moody Gambit has a 47.0% (90% CI: 44.8%-49.3%) win rate for white, based on 1.4K Lichess games. Average game length is 28 moves with a 3.2% draw rate.

What is the Petrov's Defense: Moody Gambit win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Petrov's Defense: Moody Gambit has a 43.5% (90% CI: 40.3%-46.7%) win rate for white, based on 655 Lichess games. Average game length is 28 moves with a 2.8% draw rate.

What is the Petrov's Defense: Moody Gambit win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Petrov's Defense: Moody Gambit has a 41.0% (90% CI: 37.0%-45.0%) win rate for white, based on 407 Lichess games. Average game length is 28 moves with a 3.1% draw rate.

What is the Petrov's Defense: Moody Gambit win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Petrov's Defense: Moody Gambit has a 40.4% (90% CI: 34.4%-46.6%) win rate for white, based on 173 Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 3.2% draw rate.

What is the Petrov's Defense: Moody Gambit win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Petrov's Defense: Moody Gambit has a 53.4% (90% CI: 48.4%-58.4%) win rate for white, based on 267 Lichess games. Average game length is 28 moves with a 1.7% draw rate.

What is the Petrov's Defense: Moody Gambit win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Petrov's Defense: Moody Gambit has a 58.5% (90% CI: 52.7%-64.2%) win rate for white, based on 196 Lichess games. Average game length is 29 moves with a 1.3% draw rate.

What is the Petrov's Defense: Moody Gambit win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Petrov's Defense: Moody Gambit has a 48.7% (90% CI: 41.7%-55.7%) win rate for white, based on 135 Lichess games. Average game length is 41 moves with a 3.3% draw rate.

What is the Petrov's Defense: Moody Gambit win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Petrov's Defense: Moody Gambit has a 48.3% (90% CI: 46.1%-50.5%) win rate for white (1.4K Lichess games). Draw rate is 2.0%.

What is the Petrov's Defense: Moody Gambit win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Petrov's Defense: Moody Gambit has a 46.8% (90% CI: 45.1%-48.5%) win rate for white (2.3K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.7%.

What is the Petrov's Defense: Moody Gambit win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Petrov's Defense: Moody Gambit has a 41.9% (90% CI: 39.7%-44.0%) win rate for white (1.5K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.7%.

Is the Petrov's Defense: Moody Gambit a good opening?

The Petrov's Defense: Moody Gambit is slightly favors black with a 45.9% (90% CI: 44.8%-47.1%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2200-2499 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.