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Petrov's Defense: Classical Attack, Closed Variation

28K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Tough Sell
Black Expected Score46.0%Range (90% confident): 45.5% – 46.5%Based on 28K games
0%46.0%100%
Range (90% confident): 45.5% – 46.5%
Outcome Distribution
43.7%4.4%51.8%
Win
Draw
Loss
5...Nf6
Petrov's Defense: Classical Attack, Closed Variation
Analyzen=28K
Avg Length36 moves
Sharpness96%
Draw Rate4.4%

What is the Petrov's Defense: Classical Attack, Closed Variation expected score for Black?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Petrov's Defense: Classical Attack, Closed Variation has a 46.0% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 45.5% and 46.5%), based on 28K Lichess games.

Black Win% by Rating

Declines with rating: 47% → 39%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 47.0% win rate (648 games)
  • 1000-1199: 44.7% win rate (1,495 games)
  • 1200-1399: 45.7% win rate (2,778 games)
  • 1400-1599: 44.7% win rate (4,501 games)
  • 1600-1799: 43.5% win rate (5,371 games)
  • 1800-1999: 43.2% win rate (5,100 games)
  • 2000-2199: 43.0% win rate (3,954 games)
  • 2200-2499: 43.3% win rate (2,945 games)
  • 2500+: 39.2% win rate (1,138 games)

Black Win% by Time Control

Best in Bullet (45%), worst in Classical (32%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 44.0% win rate (438 games)
  • Bullet: 44.8% win rate (15,568 games)
  • Blitz: 42.9% win rate (9,690 games)
  • Rapid: 40.0% win rate (2,142 games)
  • Classical: 31.6% win rate (92 games)

Black% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999—
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 38.9% expected score (3 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 52.6% expected score (253 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 45.5% expected score (307 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 47.7% expected score (85 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (12 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 48.9% expected score (744 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 43.8% expected score (571 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 46.2% expected score (166 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 52.6% expected score (38 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 47.9% expected score (1,333 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 46.9% expected score (1,125 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 43.9% expected score (278 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (4 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 49.2% expected score (63 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 46.8% expected score (1,987 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 47.6% expected score (1,962 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 41.5% expected score (470 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 37.8% expected score (19 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 44.7% expected score (176 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 46.3% expected score (2,296 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 45.5% expected score (2,311 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 43.7% expected score (555 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 47.1% expected score (33 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 35.8% expected score (86 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 47.0% expected score (2,689 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 44.9% expected score (1,897 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 44.5% expected score (397 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 22.3% expected score (31 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 43.6% expected score (37 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 46.9% expected score (2,678 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 42.6% expected score (1,085 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 37.7% expected score (153 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 56.4% expected score (22 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 46.1% expected score (2,514 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 46.3% expected score (375 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 42.8% expected score (33 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 43.3% expected score (1,074 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 40.6% expected score (57 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 27.0% expected score (5 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (1 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Petrov's Defense
49.1%
Variations (5)
Petrov's Defense: Three Knights Game
50.2%
Petrov's Defense: Italian Variation
50.9%
Petrov's Defense: Stafford Gambit
46.5%
Petrov's Defense: Modern Attack
51.5%
Petrov's Defense: Damiano Variation
58.6%
Analyze Petrov's Defense: Classical Attack, Closed Variation PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Petrov's Defense: Classical Attack, Closed Variation win rate?

The Petrov's Defense: Classical Attack, Closed Variation has a 51.8% (90% CI: 51.3%-52.3%) win rate for white, based on 28K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Petrov's Defense: Classical Attack, Closed Variation perform best?

The Petrov's Defense: Classical Attack, Closed Variation performs best at 1600-1799 Elo with a 52.3% win rate for white (5.4K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Petrov's Defense: Classical Attack, Closed Variation better in blitz or rapid?

Rapid (53.6%) outperforms UltraBullet (54.3%) by -0.7%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Petrov's Defense: Classical Attack, Closed Variation?

The Petrov's Defense: Classical Attack, Closed Variation has a sharpness score of 95.6 (very decisive), meaning 95.6% of games end decisively. Average game length is 36 moves.

What is the Petrov's Defense: Classical Attack, Closed Variation win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the Petrov's Defense: Classical Attack, Closed Variation has a 50.1% (90% CI: 46.9%-53.3%) win rate for white, based on 648 Lichess games. Average game length is 28 moves with a 2.8% draw rate.

What is the Petrov's Defense: Classical Attack, Closed Variation win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Petrov's Defense: Classical Attack, Closed Variation has a 51.5% (90% CI: 49.4%-53.6%) win rate for white, based on 1.5K Lichess games. Average game length is 30 moves with a 3.8% draw rate.

What is the Petrov's Defense: Classical Attack, Closed Variation win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Petrov's Defense: Classical Attack, Closed Variation has a 51.4% (90% CI: 49.9%-53.0%) win rate for white, based on 2.8K Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 2.9% draw rate.

What is the Petrov's Defense: Classical Attack, Closed Variation win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Petrov's Defense: Classical Attack, Closed Variation has a 51.6% (90% CI: 50.3%-52.8%) win rate for white, based on 4.5K Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 3.7% draw rate.

What is the Petrov's Defense: Classical Attack, Closed Variation win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Petrov's Defense: Classical Attack, Closed Variation has a 52.3% (90% CI: 51.2%-53.4%) win rate for white, based on 5.4K Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 4.2% draw rate.

What is the Petrov's Defense: Classical Attack, Closed Variation win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Petrov's Defense: Classical Attack, Closed Variation has a 51.9% (90% CI: 50.7%-53.0%) win rate for white, based on 5.1K Lichess games. Average game length is 38 moves with a 4.9% draw rate.

What is the Petrov's Defense: Classical Attack, Closed Variation win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Petrov's Defense: Classical Attack, Closed Variation has a 52.4% (90% CI: 51.1%-53.7%) win rate for white, based on 4.0K Lichess games. Average game length is 40 moves with a 4.6% draw rate.

What is the Petrov's Defense: Classical Attack, Closed Variation win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Petrov's Defense: Classical Attack, Closed Variation has a 51.1% (90% CI: 49.5%-52.6%) win rate for white, based on 2.9K Lichess games. Average game length is 41 moves with a 5.7% draw rate.

What is the Petrov's Defense: Classical Attack, Closed Variation win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Petrov's Defense: Classical Attack, Closed Variation has a 53.1% (90% CI: 50.7%-55.6%) win rate for white, based on 1.1K Lichess games. Average game length is 46 moves with a 7.7% draw rate.

What is the Petrov's Defense: Classical Attack, Closed Variation win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet games, the Petrov's Defense: Classical Attack, Closed Variation has a 54.3% (90% CI: 50.4%-58.2%) win rate for white (438 Lichess games). Draw rate is 1.7%.

What is the Petrov's Defense: Classical Attack, Closed Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Petrov's Defense: Classical Attack, Closed Variation has a 51.4% (90% CI: 50.8%-52.1%) win rate for white (16K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.7%.

What is the Petrov's Defense: Classical Attack, Closed Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Petrov's Defense: Classical Attack, Closed Variation has a 51.9% (90% CI: 51.1%-52.7%) win rate for white (9.7K Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.2%.

What is the Petrov's Defense: Classical Attack, Closed Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Petrov's Defense: Classical Attack, Closed Variation has a 53.6% (90% CI: 51.8%-55.4%) win rate for white (2.1K Lichess games). Draw rate is 6.4%.

Is the Petrov's Defense: Classical Attack, Closed Variation a good opening?

The Petrov's Defense: Classical Attack, Closed Variation is statistically favors white with a 51.8% (90% CI: 51.3%-52.3%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 1600-1799 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.