Owen Defense: Guatemala Defense

96K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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White Expected Score52.8%Range (90% confident): 52.5% – 53.0%Based on 96K games

0%52.8%100%

Range (90% confident): 52.5% – 53.0%

Outcome Distribution

50.9%3.8%45.4%

Win

Draw

Loss

2...Ba6

Owen Defense: Guatemala Defense

Analyzen=96K

Avg Length35 moves

Sharpness96%

Draw Rate3.8%

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Owen Defense: Guatemala Defense has a 52.8% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 52.5% and 53.0%), based on 96K Lichess games.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Time-Control Swing

Max swing: 20.9% · Classical best · UltraBullet worst

White Win% by Rating

Declines with rating: 53% → 50%

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2000

2200

2500+

White Win% by Time Control

Best in Classical (60%), worst in UltraBullet (39%)

UltraBullet

Bullet

Blitz

Rapid

Classical

White% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

Rating	UB	Class
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499		—
2500+	—	—

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 21.5% expected score (2 games)
0-999 rating, Bullet: 49.1% expected score (1,011 games)
0-999 rating, Blitz: 55.9% expected score (1,775 games)
0-999 rating, Rapid: 59.5% expected score (823 games)
0-999 rating, Classical: 76.1% expected score (10 games)
1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 31.9% expected score (4 games)
1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 51.2% expected score (1,688 games)
1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 54.2% expected score (2,275 games)
1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 61.7% expected score (655 games)
1000-1199 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (27 games)
1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 32.9% expected score (89 games)
1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 51.7% expected score (2,495 games)
1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 52.8% expected score (4,984 games)
1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 59.4% expected score (1,459 games)
1200-1399 rating, Classical: 74.7% expected score (39 games)
1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 44.1% expected score (91 games)
1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 49.7% expected score (4,386 games)
1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 53.8% expected score (6,893 games)
1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 56.1% expected score (1,814 games)
1400-1599 rating, Classical: 53.4% expected score (88 games)
1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 43.9% expected score (72 games)
1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 49.8% expected score (9,036 games)
1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 54.0% expected score (7,443 games)
1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 55.4% expected score (1,092 games)
1600-1799 rating, Classical: 62.9% expected score (49 games)
1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 48.0% expected score (23 games)
1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 50.4% expected score (15,619 games)
1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 55.4% expected score (5,407 games)
1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 58.7% expected score (707 games)
1800-1999 rating, Classical: 81.4% expected score (24 games)
2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 38.0% expected score (11 games)
2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 52.7% expected score (16,370 games)
2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 59.2% expected score (1,533 games)
2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 64.2% expected score (129 games)
2000-2199 rating, Classical: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 32.4% expected score (7 games)
2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 53.2% expected score (6,873 games)
2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 60.5% expected score (261 games)
2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 69.1% expected score (9 games)
2500+ rating, Bullet: 51.5% expected score (995 games)
2500+ rating, Blitz: 63.5% expected score (32 games)
2500+ rating, Rapid: 70.0% expected score (1 games)

Related Openings

Parent

Owen Defense

49.8%

Variations (5)

Owen Defense: Hekili-Loa Gambit

52.9%

Owen Defense: Matovinsky Gambit

61.3%

Owen Defense: Naselwaus Gambit

56.5%

Owen Defense: Smith Gambit

49.1%

Owen Defense: Unicorn Variation

58.9%

Analyze Owen Defense: Guatemala Defense PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Owen Defense: Guatemala Defense win rate?

The Owen Defense: Guatemala Defense has a 50.9% (90% CI: 50.6%-51.1%) win rate for white, based on 96K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Owen Defense: Guatemala Defense perform best?

The Owen Defense: Guatemala Defense performs best at 0-999 Elo with a 52.5% win rate for white (3.6K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Owen Defense: Guatemala Defense better in blitz or rapid?

Classical (60.3%) outperforms UltraBullet (39.4%) by 20.9%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Owen Defense: Guatemala Defense?

The Owen Defense: Guatemala Defense has a sharpness score of 96.2 (very decisive), meaning 96.2% of games end decisively. Average game length is 35 moves.

What is the Owen Defense: Guatemala Defense win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the Owen Defense: Guatemala Defense has a 52.5% (90% CI: 51.2%-53.9%) win rate for white, based on 3.6K Lichess games. Average game length is 29 moves with a 4.7% draw rate.

What is the Owen Defense: Guatemala Defense win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Owen Defense: Guatemala Defense has a 52.3% (90% CI: 51.1%-53.5%) win rate for white, based on 4.6K Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 3.6% draw rate.

What is the Owen Defense: Guatemala Defense win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Owen Defense: Guatemala Defense has a 51.5% (90% CI: 50.7%-52.4%) win rate for white, based on 9.1K Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 3.8% draw rate.

What is the Owen Defense: Guatemala Defense win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Owen Defense: Guatemala Defense has a 50.9% (90% CI: 50.2%-51.6%) win rate for white, based on 13K Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 3.5% draw rate.

What is the Owen Defense: Guatemala Defense win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Owen Defense: Guatemala Defense has a 50.0% (90% CI: 49.4%-50.6%) win rate for white, based on 18K Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 3.7% draw rate.

What is the Owen Defense: Guatemala Defense win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Owen Defense: Guatemala Defense has a 50.0% (90% CI: 49.5%-50.6%) win rate for white, based on 22K Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 3.8% draw rate.

What is the Owen Defense: Guatemala Defense win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Owen Defense: Guatemala Defense has a 51.4% (90% CI: 50.8%-52.0%) win rate for white, based on 18K Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 3.7% draw rate.

What is the Owen Defense: Guatemala Defense win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Owen Defense: Guatemala Defense has a 51.4% (90% CI: 50.4%-52.4%) win rate for white, based on 7.2K Lichess games. Average game length is 38 moves with a 4.0% draw rate.

What is the Owen Defense: Guatemala Defense win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Owen Defense: Guatemala Defense has a 49.7% (90% CI: 47.1%-52.2%) win rate for white, based on 1.0K Lichess games. Average game length is 42 moves with a 4.4% draw rate.

What is the Owen Defense: Guatemala Defense win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet games, the Owen Defense: Guatemala Defense has a 39.4% (90% CI: 34.8%-44.1%) win rate for white (299 Lichess games). Draw rate is 0.5%.

What is the Owen Defense: Guatemala Defense win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Owen Defense: Guatemala Defense has a 49.7% (90% CI: 49.3%-50.0%) win rate for white (58K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.2%.

What is the Owen Defense: Guatemala Defense win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Owen Defense: Guatemala Defense has a 52.1% (90% CI: 51.6%-52.5%) win rate for white (31K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.7%.

What is the Owen Defense: Guatemala Defense win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Owen Defense: Guatemala Defense has a 55.9% (90% CI: 54.9%-56.9%) win rate for white (6.7K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.4%.

What is the Owen Defense: Guatemala Defense win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the Owen Defense: Guatemala Defense has a 60.3% (90% CI: 55.1%-65.5%) win rate for white (238 Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.2%.

Is the Owen Defense: Guatemala Defense a good opening?

The Owen Defense: Guatemala Defense is statistically favors white with a 50.9% (90% CI: 50.6%-51.1%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 0-999 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.

What is the Owen Defense: Guatemala Defense expected score for White?