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Nimzowitsch Defense: Williams Variation

1.1M games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Tough Sell
Black Expected Score47.4%Range (90% confident): 47.3% – 47.5%Based on 1.1M games
0%47.4%100%
Range (90% confident): 47.3% – 47.5%
Outcome Distribution
45.3%4.2%50.6%
Win
Draw
Loss
2...d6
Nimzowitsch Defense: Williams Variation
Analyzen=1.1M
Avg Length35 moves
Sharpness96%
Draw Rate4.2%

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Williams Variation expected score for Black?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Nimzowitsch Defense: Williams Variation has a 47.4% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 47.3% and 47.5%), based on 1.1M Lichess games.

Black Win% by Rating

Stable across ratings (~45%)

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 44.8% win rate (73,815 games)
  • 1000-1199: 44.7% win rate (114,666 games)
  • 1200-1399: 45.2% win rate (169,495 games)
  • 1400-1599: 45.2% win rate (207,439 games)
  • 1600-1799: 45.2% win rate (200,855 games)
  • 1800-1999: 46.0% win rate (160,617 games)
  • 2000-2199: 45.8% win rate (95,578 games)
  • 2200-2499: 45.4% win rate (70,817 games)
  • 2500+: 43.3% win rate (17,466 games)

Black Win% by Time Control

Best in UltraBullet (51%), worst in Classical (41%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 51.3% win rate (6,688 games)
  • Bullet: 47.0% win rate (346,223 games)
  • Blitz: 44.8% win rate (576,152 games)
  • Rapid: 43.2% win rate (175,630 games)
  • Classical: 40.7% win rate (6,055 games)

Black% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 58.6% expected score (310 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 48.1% expected score (20,578 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 47.0% expected score (35,605 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 44.3% expected score (17,124 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 44.3% expected score (198 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 49.9% expected score (726 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 47.4% expected score (33,610 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 46.6% expected score (58,229 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 45.0% expected score (21,561 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 39.8% expected score (540 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 50.7% expected score (1,021 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 47.9% expected score (47,104 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 47.1% expected score (90,548 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 45.3% expected score (29,759 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 42.6% expected score (1,063 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 57.3% expected score (1,592 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 48.3% expected score (56,677 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 46.6% expected score (109,657 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 46.3% expected score (37,545 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 43.9% expected score (1,968 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 50.8% expected score (1,512 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 48.8% expected score (53,531 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 47.1% expected score (110,390 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 45.9% expected score (33,966 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 44.0% expected score (1,456 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 48.6% expected score (851 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 49.3% expected score (50,148 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 48.0% expected score (85,584 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 47.3% expected score (23,381 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 46.4% expected score (653 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 49.2% expected score (365 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 48.9% expected score (34,416 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 48.4% expected score (50,671 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 46.3% expected score (9,992 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 43.0% expected score (134 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 49.9% expected score (287 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 49.2% expected score (37,535 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 47.3% expected score (30,832 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 47.3% expected score (2,126 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 46.1% expected score (37 games)
  • 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 42.2% expected score (24 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 47.8% expected score (12,624 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 43.6% expected score (4,636 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 43.3% expected score (176 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 10.0% expected score (6 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Nimzowitsch Defense
50.3%
Variations (5)
Nimzowitsch Defense: Kennedy Variation, Linksspringer Variation
50.3%
Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Advance Variation
50.2%
Nimzowitsch Defense: Declined Variation
49.6%
Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Exchange Variation
48.7%
Nimzowitsch Defense: Franco-Nimzowitsch Variation
50.9%
Analyze Nimzowitsch Defense: Williams Variation PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Williams Variation win rate?

The Nimzowitsch Defense: Williams Variation has a 50.6% (90% CI: 50.5%-50.6%) win rate for white, based on 1.1M rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Nimzowitsch Defense: Williams Variation perform best?

The Nimzowitsch Defense: Williams Variation performs best at 1000-1199 Elo with a 51.7% win rate for white (115K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Williams Variation better in blitz or rapid?

Classical (53.7%) outperforms UltraBullet (46.9%) by 6.8%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Williams Variation?

The Nimzowitsch Defense: Williams Variation has a sharpness score of 95.8 (very decisive), meaning 95.8% of games end decisively. Average game length is 35 moves.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Williams Variation win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the Nimzowitsch Defense: Williams Variation has a 51.3% (90% CI: 51.0%-51.6%) win rate for white, based on 74K Lichess games. Average game length is 28 moves with a 3.9% draw rate.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Williams Variation win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Nimzowitsch Defense: Williams Variation has a 51.7% (90% CI: 51.5%-52.0%) win rate for white, based on 115K Lichess games. Average game length is 30 moves with a 3.5% draw rate.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Williams Variation win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Nimzowitsch Defense: Williams Variation has a 51.3% (90% CI: 51.1%-51.5%) win rate for white, based on 169K Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 3.5% draw rate.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Williams Variation win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Nimzowitsch Defense: Williams Variation has a 51.1% (90% CI: 50.9%-51.3%) win rate for white, based on 207K Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 3.7% draw rate.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Williams Variation win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Nimzowitsch Defense: Williams Variation has a 50.6% (90% CI: 50.4%-50.8%) win rate for white, based on 201K Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 4.1% draw rate.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Williams Variation win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Nimzowitsch Defense: Williams Variation has a 49.5% (90% CI: 49.3%-49.8%) win rate for white, based on 161K Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 4.4% draw rate.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Williams Variation win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Nimzowitsch Defense: Williams Variation has a 49.2% (90% CI: 48.9%-49.4%) win rate for white, based on 96K Lichess games. Average game length is 38 moves with a 5.0% draw rate.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Williams Variation win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Nimzowitsch Defense: Williams Variation has a 48.7% (90% CI: 48.4%-49.1%) win rate for white, based on 71K Lichess games. Average game length is 39 moves with a 5.9% draw rate.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Williams Variation win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Nimzowitsch Defense: Williams Variation has a 50.1% (90% CI: 49.5%-50.7%) win rate for white, based on 17K Lichess games. Average game length is 42 moves with a 6.6% draw rate.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Williams Variation win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet games, the Nimzowitsch Defense: Williams Variation has a 46.9% (90% CI: 45.9%-48.0%) win rate for white (6.7K Lichess games). Draw rate is 1.8%.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Williams Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Nimzowitsch Defense: Williams Variation has a 50.0% (90% CI: 49.9%-50.2%) win rate for white (346K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.0%.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Williams Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Nimzowitsch Defense: Williams Variation has a 50.6% (90% CI: 50.4%-50.7%) win rate for white (576K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.6%.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Williams Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Nimzowitsch Defense: Williams Variation has a 51.7% (90% CI: 51.5%-51.9%) win rate for white (176K Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.1%.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Williams Variation win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the Nimzowitsch Defense: Williams Variation has a 53.7% (90% CI: 52.6%-54.7%) win rate for white (6.1K Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.6%.

Is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Williams Variation a good opening?

The Nimzowitsch Defense: Williams Variation is statistically favors white with a 50.6% (90% CI: 50.5%-50.6%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 1000-1199 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.