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Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Bogoljubow Variation, Nimzowitsch Gambit

75K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Tough Sell
Black Expected Score46.9%Range (90% confident): 46.6% – 47.2%Based on 75K games
0%46.9%100%
Range (90% confident): 46.6% – 47.2%
Outcome Distribution
44.9%3.9%51.2%
Win
Draw
Loss
4...Ne5
Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Bogoljubow Variation, Nimzowitsch Gambit
Analyzen=75K
Avg Length32 moves
Sharpness96%
Draw Rate3.9%

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Bogoljubow Variation, Nimzowitsch Gambit expected score for Black?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Bogoljubow Variation, Nimzowitsch Gambit has a 46.9% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 46.6% and 47.2%), based on 75K Lichess games.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Gambit BreakpointBlack

Peak: -3.2% · Breakpoint: 0-999

Traps & Chaos

Complexity: 91.5 · Trap factor: +16.9 · n=75K

Black Win% by Rating

Declines with rating: 44% → 39%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 44.2% win rate (1,785 games)
  • 1000-1199: 43.0% win rate (3,341 games)
  • 1200-1399: 44.2% win rate (5,435 games)
  • 1400-1599: 43.4% win rate (8,123 games)
  • 1600-1799: 45.9% win rate (12,186 games)
  • 1800-1999: 45.8% win rate (16,233 games)
  • 2000-2199: 45.2% win rate (14,339 games)
  • 2200-2499: 45.2% win rate (10,902 games)
  • 2500+: 39.4% win rate (2,274 games)

Black Win% by Time Control

Best in Bullet (46%), worst in Classical (36%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 39.8% win rate (123 games)
  • Bullet: 46.1% win rate (31,663 games)
  • Blitz: 44.4% win rate (35,025 games)
  • Rapid: 42.6% win rate (7,559 games)
  • Classical: 35.9% win rate (248 games)

Black% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 50.1% expected score (510 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 43.3% expected score (903 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 45.7% expected score (368 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 38.9% expected score (3 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 42.4% expected score (5 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 47.8% expected score (983 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 43.9% expected score (1,699 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 42.7% expected score (646 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 71.1% expected score (8 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 47.0% expected score (15 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 47.4% expected score (1,969 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 45.4% expected score (2,421 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 43.3% expected score (987 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 32.0% expected score (43 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 31.1% expected score (17 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 46.5% expected score (2,514 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 44.7% expected score (4,279 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 43.1% expected score (1,270 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 42.1% expected score (43 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 39.4% expected score (36 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 48.0% expected score (4,394 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 47.7% expected score (6,102 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 45.9% expected score (1,598 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 44.8% expected score (56 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 45.6% expected score (21 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 48.6% expected score (6,293 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 47.2% expected score (8,088 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 46.6% expected score (1,765 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 36.7% expected score (66 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 37.8% expected score (23 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 47.7% expected score (6,539 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 47.4% expected score (7,015 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 46.9% expected score (739 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 29.6% expected score (23 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 68.2% expected score (4 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 47.8% expected score (6,584 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 47.4% expected score (4,132 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 45.5% expected score (177 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 42.4% expected score (5 games)
  • 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 43.6% expected score (1,877 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 44.1% expected score (386 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 31.0% expected score (9 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (1 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Nimzowitsch Defense
50.3%
Variations (5)
Nimzowitsch Defense: Kennedy Variation, Linksspringer Variation
50.3%
Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Advance Variation
50.2%
Nimzowitsch Defense: Declined Variation
49.6%
Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Exchange Variation
48.7%
Nimzowitsch Defense: Franco-Nimzowitsch Variation
50.9%
Analyze Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Bogoljubow Variation, Nimzowitsch Gambit PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Bogoljubow Variation, Nimzowitsch Gambit win rate?

The Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Bogoljubow Variation, Nimzowitsch Gambit has a 51.2% (90% CI: 50.9%-51.5%) win rate for white, based on 75K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Bogoljubow Variation, Nimzowitsch Gambit perform best?

The Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Bogoljubow Variation, Nimzowitsch Gambit performs best at 1400-1599 Elo with a 53.5% win rate for white (8.1K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Bogoljubow Variation, Nimzowitsch Gambit better in blitz or rapid?

Classical (58.3%) outperforms Bullet (50.8%) by 7.5%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Bogoljubow Variation, Nimzowitsch Gambit?

The Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Bogoljubow Variation, Nimzowitsch Gambit has a sharpness score of 96.1 (very decisive), meaning 96.1% of games end decisively. Average game length is 32 moves.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Bogoljubow Variation, Nimzowitsch Gambit win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Bogoljubow Variation, Nimzowitsch Gambit has a 52.7% (90% CI: 50.8%-54.6%) win rate for white, based on 1.8K Lichess games. Average game length is 26 moves with a 3.1% draw rate.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Bogoljubow Variation, Nimzowitsch Gambit win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Bogoljubow Variation, Nimzowitsch Gambit has a 53.4% (90% CI: 52.0%-54.8%) win rate for white, based on 3.3K Lichess games. Average game length is 28 moves with a 3.6% draw rate.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Bogoljubow Variation, Nimzowitsch Gambit win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Bogoljubow Variation, Nimzowitsch Gambit has a 53.0% (90% CI: 51.9%-54.1%) win rate for white, based on 5.4K Lichess games. Average game length is 29 moves with a 2.8% draw rate.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Bogoljubow Variation, Nimzowitsch Gambit win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Bogoljubow Variation, Nimzowitsch Gambit has a 53.5% (90% CI: 52.6%-54.4%) win rate for white, based on 8.1K Lichess games. Average game length is 30 moves with a 3.1% draw rate.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Bogoljubow Variation, Nimzowitsch Gambit win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Bogoljubow Variation, Nimzowitsch Gambit has a 50.9% (90% CI: 50.1%-51.6%) win rate for white, based on 12K Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 3.2% draw rate.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Bogoljubow Variation, Nimzowitsch Gambit win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Bogoljubow Variation, Nimzowitsch Gambit has a 50.6% (90% CI: 49.9%-51.2%) win rate for white, based on 16K Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 3.6% draw rate.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Bogoljubow Variation, Nimzowitsch Gambit win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Bogoljubow Variation, Nimzowitsch Gambit has a 50.3% (90% CI: 49.6%-51.0%) win rate for white, based on 14K Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 4.4% draw rate.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Bogoljubow Variation, Nimzowitsch Gambit win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Bogoljubow Variation, Nimzowitsch Gambit has a 49.9% (90% CI: 49.1%-50.7%) win rate for white, based on 11K Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 4.9% draw rate.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Bogoljubow Variation, Nimzowitsch Gambit win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Bogoljubow Variation, Nimzowitsch Gambit has a 52.2% (90% CI: 50.5%-53.9%) win rate for white, based on 2.3K Lichess games. Average game length is 39 moves with a 8.5% draw rate.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Bogoljubow Variation, Nimzowitsch Gambit win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet games, the Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Bogoljubow Variation, Nimzowitsch Gambit has a 58.2% (90% CI: 50.9%-65.4%) win rate for white (123 Lichess games). Draw rate is 2.0%.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Bogoljubow Variation, Nimzowitsch Gambit win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Bogoljubow Variation, Nimzowitsch Gambit has a 50.8% (90% CI: 50.4%-51.3%) win rate for white (32K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.1%.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Bogoljubow Variation, Nimzowitsch Gambit win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Bogoljubow Variation, Nimzowitsch Gambit has a 51.2% (90% CI: 50.7%-51.6%) win rate for white (35K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.4%.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Bogoljubow Variation, Nimzowitsch Gambit win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Bogoljubow Variation, Nimzowitsch Gambit has a 52.6% (90% CI: 51.7%-53.6%) win rate for white (7.6K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.7%.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Bogoljubow Variation, Nimzowitsch Gambit win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Bogoljubow Variation, Nimzowitsch Gambit has a 58.3% (90% CI: 53.2%-63.4%) win rate for white (248 Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.8%.

Is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Bogoljubow Variation, Nimzowitsch Gambit a good opening?

The Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Bogoljubow Variation, Nimzowitsch Gambit is statistically favors white with a 51.2% (90% CI: 50.9%-51.5%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 1400-1599 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.