TrueEloPlay what wins.
Analyzer

Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Bogoljubow Variation, Erben Gambit

2.1K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Tough Sell
Black Expected Score44.5%Range (90% confident): 42.7% – 46.3%Based on 2.1K games
0%44.5%100%
Range (90% confident): 42.7% – 46.3%
Outcome Distribution
42.8%3.4%53.8%
Win
Draw
Loss
3...g6
Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Bogoljubow Variation, Erben Gambit
Analyzen=2.1K
Avg Length30 moves
Sharpness97%
Draw Rate3.4%

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Bogoljubow Variation, Erben Gambit expected score for Black?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Bogoljubow Variation, Erben Gambit has a 44.5% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 42.7% and 46.3%), based on 2.1K Lichess games.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Gambit BreakpointBlack

Peak: -14.8% · Breakpoint: 0-999

Black Win% by Rating

Declines with rating: 41% → 36%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 41.2% win rate (495 games)
  • 1000-1199: 43.2% win rate (365 games)
  • 1200-1399: 43.9% win rate (307 games)
  • 1400-1599: 41.3% win rate (339 games)
  • 1600-1799: 44.3% win rate (268 games)
  • 1800-1999: 41.7% win rate (146 games)
  • 2000-2199: 47.9% win rate (106 games)
  • 2200-2499: 42.9% win rate (44 games)
  • 2500+: 36.0% win rate (11 games)

Black Win% by Time Control

Best in UltraBullet (47%), worst in Classical (35%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 46.7% win rate (6 games)
  • Bullet: 44.8% win rate (428 games)
  • Blitz: 42.6% win rate (1,035 games)
  • Rapid: 41.9% win rate (589 games)
  • Classical: 34.7% win rate (23 games)

Black% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999—
1000-1199—
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199——
2200-2499—
2500+————

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 42.5% expected score (45 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 43.6% expected score (293 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 40.1% expected score (155 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 78.6% expected score (2 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 53.4% expected score (43 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 44.5% expected score (181 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 44.6% expected score (136 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 27.0% expected score (5 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 45.5% expected score (43 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 48.0% expected score (146 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 44.7% expected score (111 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 36.7% expected score (6 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 40.5% expected score (67 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 44.1% expected score (168 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 44.8% expected score (94 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 29.0% expected score (8 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 43.7% expected score (54 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 46.9% expected score (141 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 46.6% expected score (71 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 54.3% expected score (57 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 32.8% expected score (71 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (16 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 50.7% expected score (71 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 45.6% expected score (32 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 61.2% expected score (3 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 43.6% expected score (37 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 50.0% expected score (3 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 61.2% expected score (3 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 42.0% expected score (11 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Nimzowitsch Defense
50.3%
Variations (5)
Nimzowitsch Defense: Kennedy Variation, Linksspringer Variation
50.3%
Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Advance Variation
50.2%
Nimzowitsch Defense: Declined Variation
49.6%
Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Exchange Variation
48.7%
Nimzowitsch Defense: Franco-Nimzowitsch Variation
50.9%
Analyze Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Bogoljubow Variation, Erben Gambit PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Bogoljubow Variation, Erben Gambit win rate?

The Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Bogoljubow Variation, Erben Gambit has a 53.8% (90% CI: 52.0%-55.6%) win rate for white, based on 2.1K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Bogoljubow Variation, Erben Gambit perform best?

The Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Bogoljubow Variation, Erben Gambit performs best at 0-999 Elo with a 56.1% win rate for white (495 games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Bogoljubow Variation, Erben Gambit better in blitz or rapid?

Blitz (54.3%) outperforms Bullet (51.6%) by 2.7%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Bogoljubow Variation, Erben Gambit?

The Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Bogoljubow Variation, Erben Gambit has a sharpness score of 96.6 (very decisive), meaning 96.6% of games end decisively. Average game length is 30 moves.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Bogoljubow Variation, Erben Gambit win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Bogoljubow Variation, Erben Gambit has a 56.1% (90% CI: 52.4%-59.7%) win rate for white, based on 495 Lichess games. Average game length is 27 moves with a 2.7% draw rate.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Bogoljubow Variation, Erben Gambit win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Bogoljubow Variation, Erben Gambit has a 52.8% (90% CI: 48.5%-57.1%) win rate for white, based on 365 Lichess games. Average game length is 29 moves with a 4.0% draw rate.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Bogoljubow Variation, Erben Gambit win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Bogoljubow Variation, Erben Gambit has a 52.0% (90% CI: 47.3%-56.7%) win rate for white, based on 307 Lichess games. Average game length is 29 moves with a 4.1% draw rate.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Bogoljubow Variation, Erben Gambit win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Bogoljubow Variation, Erben Gambit has a 55.1% (90% CI: 50.6%-59.5%) win rate for white, based on 339 Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 3.7% draw rate.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Bogoljubow Variation, Erben Gambit win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Bogoljubow Variation, Erben Gambit has a 52.9% (90% CI: 47.9%-57.9%) win rate for white, based on 268 Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 2.8% draw rate.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Bogoljubow Variation, Erben Gambit win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Bogoljubow Variation, Erben Gambit has a 53.9% (90% CI: 47.1%-60.6%) win rate for white, based on 146 Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 4.4% draw rate.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Bogoljubow Variation, Erben Gambit win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Bogoljubow Variation, Erben Gambit has a 48.8% (90% CI: 41.0%-56.7%) win rate for white, based on 106 Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 3.3% draw rate.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Bogoljubow Variation, Erben Gambit win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Bogoljubow Variation, Erben Gambit has a 51.6% (90% CI: 47.6%-55.5%) win rate for white (428 Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.6%.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Bogoljubow Variation, Erben Gambit win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Bogoljubow Variation, Erben Gambit has a 54.3% (90% CI: 51.7%-56.8%) win rate for white (1.0K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.1%.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Bogoljubow Variation, Erben Gambit win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Bogoljubow Variation, Erben Gambit has a 53.9% (90% CI: 50.6%-57.3%) win rate for white (589 Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.1%.

Is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Bogoljubow Variation, Erben Gambit a good opening?

The Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Bogoljubow Variation, Erben Gambit is statistically favors white with a 53.8% (90% CI: 52.0%-55.6%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 0-999 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.