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Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Aachen Gambit

17K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Tough Sell
Black Expected Score47.3%Range (90% confident): 46.7% – 48.0%Based on 17K games
0%47.3%100%
Range (90% confident): 46.7% – 48.0%
Outcome Distribution
45.8%2.9%51.2%
Win
Draw
Loss
3...Nb4
Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Aachen Gambit
Analyzen=17K
Avg Length28 moves
Sharpness97%
Draw Rate2.9%

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Aachen Gambit expected score for Black?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Aachen Gambit has a 47.3% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 46.7% and 48.0%), based on 17K Lichess games.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Gambit BreakpointBlack

Peak: -4.1% · Breakpoint: 0-999

Black Win% by Rating

Stable across ratings (~49%)

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 48.6% win rate (4,361 games)
  • 1000-1199: 46.4% win rate (3,653 games)
  • 1200-1399: 45.8% win rate (3,199 games)
  • 1400-1599: 44.6% win rate (2,633 games)
  • 1600-1799: 45.0% win rate (1,986 games)
  • 1800-1999: 39.6% win rate (1,140 games)
  • 2000-2199: 42.2% win rate (367 games)
  • 2200-2499: 34.8% win rate (69 games)
  • 2500+: 47.8% win rate (10 games)

Black Win% by Time Control

Best in UltraBullet (52%), worst in Classical (42%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 52.2% win rate (168 games)
  • Bullet: 47.8% win rate (7,891 games)
  • Blitz: 43.7% win rate (6,831 games)
  • Rapid: 45.0% win rate (2,442 games)
  • Classical: 41.7% win rate (86 games)

Black% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999—
2000-2199—
2200-2499——
2500+———

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 69.6% expected score (24 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 51.7% expected score (1,601 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 48.9% expected score (1,897 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 50.6% expected score (829 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 54.4% expected score (10 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 57.5% expected score (32 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 50.0% expected score (1,716 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 45.7% expected score (1,416 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 45.3% expected score (471 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 44.9% expected score (18 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 57.9% expected score (43 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 48.4% expected score (1,579 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 45.2% expected score (1,148 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 46.1% expected score (409 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (20 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 43.5% expected score (44 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 46.4% expected score (1,257 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 45.4% expected score (981 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 47.5% expected score (333 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 52.6% expected score (18 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 38.9% expected score (21 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 48.7% expected score (968 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 44.5% expected score (744 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 44.3% expected score (234 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 25.7% expected score (19 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 31.9% expected score (4 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 43.8% expected score (520 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 38.3% expected score (478 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 43.2% expected score (138 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 50.0% expected score (191 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 35.1% expected score (149 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 42.7% expected score (26 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 39.3% expected score (50 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 36.5% expected score (17 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 35.7% expected score (2 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 59.6% expected score (9 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 30.0% expected score (1 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Nimzowitsch Defense
50.3%
Variations (5)
Nimzowitsch Defense: Kennedy Variation, Linksspringer Variation
50.3%
Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Advance Variation
50.2%
Nimzowitsch Defense: Declined Variation
49.6%
Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Exchange Variation
48.7%
Nimzowitsch Defense: Franco-Nimzowitsch Variation
50.9%
Analyze Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Aachen Gambit PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Aachen Gambit win rate?

The Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Aachen Gambit has a 51.2% (90% CI: 50.6%-51.8%) win rate for white, based on 17K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Aachen Gambit perform best?

The Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Aachen Gambit performs best at 1800-1999 Elo with a 57.1% win rate for white (1.1K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Aachen Gambit better in blitz or rapid?

Blitz (52.7%) outperforms UltraBullet (46.9%) by 5.8%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Aachen Gambit?

The Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Aachen Gambit has a sharpness score of 97.1 (very decisive), meaning 97.1% of games end decisively. Average game length is 28 moves.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Aachen Gambit win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Aachen Gambit has a 47.9% (90% CI: 46.6%-49.1%) win rate for white, based on 4.4K Lichess games. Average game length is 26 moves with a 3.5% draw rate.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Aachen Gambit win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Aachen Gambit has a 51.0% (90% CI: 49.6%-52.4%) win rate for white, based on 3.7K Lichess games. Average game length is 27 moves with a 2.6% draw rate.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Aachen Gambit win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Aachen Gambit has a 51.6% (90% CI: 50.1%-53.0%) win rate for white, based on 3.2K Lichess games. Average game length is 29 moves with a 2.7% draw rate.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Aachen Gambit win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Aachen Gambit has a 52.3% (90% CI: 50.7%-53.9%) win rate for white, based on 2.6K Lichess games. Average game length is 30 moves with a 3.1% draw rate.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Aachen Gambit win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Aachen Gambit has a 52.6% (90% CI: 50.7%-54.4%) win rate for white, based on 2.0K Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 2.4% draw rate.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Aachen Gambit win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Aachen Gambit has a 57.1% (90% CI: 54.7%-59.5%) win rate for white, based on 1.1K Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 3.3% draw rate.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Aachen Gambit win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Aachen Gambit has a 55.8% (90% CI: 51.5%-60.0%) win rate for white, based on 367 Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 2.0% draw rate.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Aachen Gambit win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet games, the Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Aachen Gambit has a 46.9% (90% CI: 40.6%-53.2%) win rate for white (168 Lichess games). Draw rate is 0.9%.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Aachen Gambit win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Aachen Gambit has a 50.2% (90% CI: 49.3%-51.2%) win rate for white (7.9K Lichess games). Draw rate is 1.9%.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Aachen Gambit win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Aachen Gambit has a 52.7% (90% CI: 51.7%-53.6%) win rate for white (6.8K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.6%.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Aachen Gambit win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Aachen Gambit has a 50.6% (90% CI: 48.9%-52.3%) win rate for white (2.4K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.4%.

Is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Aachen Gambit a good opening?

The Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Aachen Gambit is statistically favors white with a 51.2% (90% CI: 50.6%-51.8%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 1800-1999 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.