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Nimzowitsch Defense: Kennedy Variation, Main Line

105K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Tough Sell
Black Expected Score45.0%Range (90% confident): 44.7% – 45.2%Based on 105K games
0%45.0%100%
Range (90% confident): 44.7% – 45.2%
Outcome Distribution
43.4%3.2%53.5%
Win
Draw
Loss
4...Ng6
Nimzowitsch Defense: Kennedy Variation, Main Line
Analyzen=105K
Avg Length33 moves
Sharpness97%
Draw Rate3.2%

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Kennedy Variation, Main Line expected score for Black?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Nimzowitsch Defense: Kennedy Variation, Main Line has a 45.0% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 44.7% and 45.2%), based on 105K Lichess games.

Black Win% by Rating

Declines with rating: 48% → 41%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 48.4% win rate (3,293 games)
  • 1000-1199: 45.0% win rate (3,202 games)
  • 1200-1399: 43.3% win rate (3,261 games)
  • 1400-1599: 44.8% win rate (5,093 games)
  • 1600-1799: 43.7% win rate (11,233 games)
  • 1800-1999: 44.4% win rate (25,577 games)
  • 2000-2199: 42.7% win rate (31,987 games)
  • 2200-2499: 41.6% win rate (18,933 games)
  • 2500+: 41.0% win rate (2,579 games)

Black Win% by Time Control

Best in UltraBullet (51%), worst in Blitz (43%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 50.9% win rate (135 games)
  • Bullet: 43.5% win rate (48,361 games)
  • Blitz: 43.1% win rate (49,143 games)
  • Rapid: 44.0% win rate (7,238 games)
  • Classical: 43.7% win rate (281 games)

Black% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+—

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (4 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 52.7% expected score (693 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 48.7% expected score (1,693 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 53.3% expected score (900 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 61.2% expected score (3 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 72.9% expected score (16 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 50.1% expected score (1,048 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 44.1% expected score (1,379 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 46.8% expected score (736 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 56.1% expected score (23 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 41.9% expected score (17 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 43.4% expected score (1,476 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 45.4% expected score (1,217 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 45.7% expected score (517 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 44.4% expected score (34 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (28 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 45.9% expected score (2,490 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 46.9% expected score (1,929 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 43.6% expected score (577 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 46.5% expected score (69 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 52.7% expected score (36 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 44.4% expected score (4,874 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 45.3% expected score (5,434 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 43.9% expected score (856 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 42.8% expected score (33 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 61.2% expected score (12 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 45.0% expected score (9,500 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 46.5% expected score (14,304 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 45.4% expected score (1,678 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 51.2% expected score (83 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 31.9% expected score (15 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 44.7% expected score (12,959 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 44.0% expected score (17,435 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 45.5% expected score (1,544 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 40.2% expected score (34 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (6 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 44.3% expected score (12,893 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 41.5% expected score (5,603 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 44.6% expected score (429 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 43.7% expected score (2,428 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 38.7% expected score (149 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 70.0% expected score (1 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Nimzowitsch Defense
50.3%
Variations (5)
Nimzowitsch Defense: Kennedy Variation, Linksspringer Variation
50.3%
Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Advance Variation
50.2%
Nimzowitsch Defense: Declined Variation
49.6%
Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Exchange Variation
48.7%
Nimzowitsch Defense: Franco-Nimzowitsch Variation
50.9%
Analyze Nimzowitsch Defense: Kennedy Variation, Main Line PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Kennedy Variation, Main Line win rate?

The Nimzowitsch Defense: Kennedy Variation, Main Line has a 53.5% (90% CI: 53.2%-53.7%) win rate for white, based on 105K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Nimzowitsch Defense: Kennedy Variation, Main Line perform best?

The Nimzowitsch Defense: Kennedy Variation, Main Line performs best at 2200-2499 Elo with a 54.7% win rate for white (19K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Kennedy Variation, Main Line better in blitz or rapid?

Bullet (53.9%) outperforms UltraBullet (47.3%) by 6.6%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Kennedy Variation, Main Line?

The Nimzowitsch Defense: Kennedy Variation, Main Line has a sharpness score of 96.8 (very decisive), meaning 96.8% of games end decisively. Average game length is 33 moves.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Kennedy Variation, Main Line win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the Nimzowitsch Defense: Kennedy Variation, Main Line has a 46.8% (90% CI: 45.4%-48.3%) win rate for white, based on 3.3K Lichess games. Average game length is 29 moves with a 4.8% draw rate.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Kennedy Variation, Main Line win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Nimzowitsch Defense: Kennedy Variation, Main Line has a 51.2% (90% CI: 49.7%-52.6%) win rate for white, based on 3.2K Lichess games. Average game length is 29 moves with a 3.9% draw rate.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Kennedy Variation, Main Line win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Nimzowitsch Defense: Kennedy Variation, Main Line has a 54.3% (90% CI: 52.8%-55.7%) win rate for white, based on 3.3K Lichess games. Average game length is 29 moves with a 2.5% draw rate.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Kennedy Variation, Main Line win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Nimzowitsch Defense: Kennedy Variation, Main Line has a 52.8% (90% CI: 51.7%-54.0%) win rate for white, based on 5.1K Lichess games. Average game length is 29 moves with a 2.4% draw rate.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Kennedy Variation, Main Line win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Nimzowitsch Defense: Kennedy Variation, Main Line has a 54.0% (90% CI: 53.3%-54.8%) win rate for white, based on 11K Lichess games. Average game length is 30 moves with a 2.3% draw rate.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Kennedy Variation, Main Line win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Nimzowitsch Defense: Kennedy Variation, Main Line has a 52.8% (90% CI: 52.3%-53.3%) win rate for white, based on 26K Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 2.8% draw rate.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Kennedy Variation, Main Line win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Nimzowitsch Defense: Kennedy Variation, Main Line has a 54.0% (90% CI: 53.6%-54.5%) win rate for white, based on 32K Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 3.2% draw rate.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Kennedy Variation, Main Line win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Nimzowitsch Defense: Kennedy Variation, Main Line has a 54.7% (90% CI: 54.1%-55.3%) win rate for white, based on 19K Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 3.7% draw rate.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Kennedy Variation, Main Line win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Nimzowitsch Defense: Kennedy Variation, Main Line has a 54.1% (90% CI: 52.5%-55.7%) win rate for white, based on 2.6K Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 4.9% draw rate.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Kennedy Variation, Main Line win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet games, the Nimzowitsch Defense: Kennedy Variation, Main Line has a 47.3% (90% CI: 40.3%-54.3%) win rate for white (135 Lichess games). Draw rate is 1.8%.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Kennedy Variation, Main Line win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Nimzowitsch Defense: Kennedy Variation, Main Line has a 53.9% (90% CI: 53.5%-54.3%) win rate for white (48K Lichess games). Draw rate is 2.6%.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Kennedy Variation, Main Line win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Nimzowitsch Defense: Kennedy Variation, Main Line has a 53.4% (90% CI: 53.0%-53.7%) win rate for white (49K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.5%.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Kennedy Variation, Main Line win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Nimzowitsch Defense: Kennedy Variation, Main Line has a 51.6% (90% CI: 50.7%-52.6%) win rate for white (7.2K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.4%.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Kennedy Variation, Main Line win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the Nimzowitsch Defense: Kennedy Variation, Main Line has a 49.0% (90% CI: 44.1%-53.9%) win rate for white (281 Lichess games). Draw rate is 7.3%.

Is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Kennedy Variation, Main Line a good opening?

The Nimzowitsch Defense: Kennedy Variation, Main Line is statistically favors white with a 53.5% (90% CI: 53.2%-53.7%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2200-2499 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.