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Nimzowitsch Defense: Kennedy Variation, Hammer Gambit

32K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Tough Sell
Black Expected Score46.4%Range (90% confident): 45.9% – 46.9%Based on 32K games
0%46.4%100%
Range (90% confident): 45.9% – 46.9%
Outcome Distribution
44.8%3.1%52.1%
Win
Draw
Loss
3...f6
Nimzowitsch Defense: Kennedy Variation, Hammer Gambit
Analyzen=32K
Avg Length30 moves
Sharpness97%
Draw Rate3.1%

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Kennedy Variation, Hammer Gambit expected score for Black?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Nimzowitsch Defense: Kennedy Variation, Hammer Gambit has a 46.4% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 45.9% and 46.9%), based on 32K Lichess games.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Gambit BreakpointBlack

Peak: -8.1% · Breakpoint: 0-999

Black Win% by Rating

Declines with rating: 48% → 42%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 48.0% win rate (2,139 games)
  • 1000-1199: 45.8% win rate (3,018 games)
  • 1200-1399: 44.4% win rate (3,872 games)
  • 1400-1599: 44.0% win rate (3,980 games)
  • 1600-1799: 44.7% win rate (4,272 games)
  • 1800-1999: 45.9% win rate (5,253 games)
  • 2000-2199: 44.2% win rate (5,102 games)
  • 2200-2499: 43.2% win rate (3,434 games)
  • 2500+: 41.9% win rate (722 games)

Black Win% by Time Control

Best in UltraBullet (49%), worst in Rapid (42%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 49.4% win rate (119 games)
  • Bullet: 46.7% win rate (13,402 games)
  • Blitz: 43.8% win rate (13,855 games)
  • Rapid: 41.7% win rate (4,276 games)
  • Classical: 45.6% win rate (140 games)

Black% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499—
2500+———

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 38.9% expected score (3 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 50.2% expected score (660 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 49.7% expected score (1,088 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (384 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 68.2% expected score (4 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 43.3% expected score (21 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 48.7% expected score (876 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 46.3% expected score (1,573 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 47.0% expected score (539 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 54.8% expected score (9 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 54.0% expected score (11 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 48.7% expected score (1,181 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 44.3% expected score (1,865 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 44.8% expected score (796 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 45.2% expected score (19 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 62.7% expected score (30 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 47.7% expected score (1,189 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 44.6% expected score (1,859 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 43.3% expected score (848 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 52.8% expected score (54 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 51.5% expected score (32 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 50.6% expected score (1,523 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 45.5% expected score (1,959 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 39.9% expected score (731 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 34.2% expected score (27 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 39.7% expected score (13 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 49.2% expected score (2,017 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 47.1% expected score (2,592 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 43.7% expected score (605 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 46.4% expected score (26 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 39.5% expected score (8 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 48.1% expected score (2,843 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 43.4% expected score (1,942 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 38.9% expected score (308 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 45.9% expected score (2,504 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 44.2% expected score (864 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 35.0% expected score (65 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 43.1% expected score (609 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 52.7% expected score (113 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Nimzowitsch Defense
50.3%
Variations (5)
Nimzowitsch Defense: Kennedy Variation, Linksspringer Variation
50.3%
Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Advance Variation
50.2%
Nimzowitsch Defense: Declined Variation
49.6%
Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Exchange Variation
48.7%
Nimzowitsch Defense: Franco-Nimzowitsch Variation
50.9%
Analyze Nimzowitsch Defense: Kennedy Variation, Hammer Gambit PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Kennedy Variation, Hammer Gambit win rate?

The Nimzowitsch Defense: Kennedy Variation, Hammer Gambit has a 52.1% (90% CI: 51.6%-52.5%) win rate for white, based on 32K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Nimzowitsch Defense: Kennedy Variation, Hammer Gambit perform best?

The Nimzowitsch Defense: Kennedy Variation, Hammer Gambit performs best at 1400-1599 Elo with a 53.1% win rate for white (4.0K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Kennedy Variation, Hammer Gambit better in blitz or rapid?

Rapid (54.4%) outperforms UltraBullet (49.4%) by 5.0%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Kennedy Variation, Hammer Gambit?

The Nimzowitsch Defense: Kennedy Variation, Hammer Gambit has a sharpness score of 96.9 (very decisive), meaning 96.9% of games end decisively. Average game length is 30 moves.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Kennedy Variation, Hammer Gambit win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the Nimzowitsch Defense: Kennedy Variation, Hammer Gambit has a 48.2% (90% CI: 46.5%-50.0%) win rate for white, based on 2.1K Lichess games. Average game length is 26 moves with a 3.7% draw rate.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Kennedy Variation, Hammer Gambit win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Nimzowitsch Defense: Kennedy Variation, Hammer Gambit has a 51.6% (90% CI: 50.2%-53.1%) win rate for white, based on 3.0K Lichess games. Average game length is 27 moves with a 2.5% draw rate.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Kennedy Variation, Hammer Gambit win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Nimzowitsch Defense: Kennedy Variation, Hammer Gambit has a 52.9% (90% CI: 51.5%-54.2%) win rate for white, based on 3.9K Lichess games. Average game length is 28 moves with a 2.7% draw rate.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Kennedy Variation, Hammer Gambit win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Nimzowitsch Defense: Kennedy Variation, Hammer Gambit has a 53.1% (90% CI: 51.8%-54.4%) win rate for white, based on 4.0K Lichess games. Average game length is 29 moves with a 3.0% draw rate.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Kennedy Variation, Hammer Gambit win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Nimzowitsch Defense: Kennedy Variation, Hammer Gambit has a 52.2% (90% CI: 50.9%-53.4%) win rate for white, based on 4.3K Lichess games. Average game length is 30 moves with a 3.1% draw rate.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Kennedy Variation, Hammer Gambit win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Nimzowitsch Defense: Kennedy Variation, Hammer Gambit has a 51.0% (90% CI: 49.9%-52.2%) win rate for white, based on 5.3K Lichess games. Average game length is 30 moves with a 3.1% draw rate.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Kennedy Variation, Hammer Gambit win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Nimzowitsch Defense: Kennedy Variation, Hammer Gambit has a 52.8% (90% CI: 51.6%-53.9%) win rate for white, based on 5.1K Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 3.0% draw rate.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Kennedy Variation, Hammer Gambit win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Nimzowitsch Defense: Kennedy Variation, Hammer Gambit has a 52.9% (90% CI: 51.5%-54.3%) win rate for white, based on 3.4K Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 3.9% draw rate.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Kennedy Variation, Hammer Gambit win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Nimzowitsch Defense: Kennedy Variation, Hammer Gambit has a 52.9% (90% CI: 49.8%-55.9%) win rate for white, based on 722 Lichess games. Average game length is 38 moves with a 5.2% draw rate.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Kennedy Variation, Hammer Gambit win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet games, the Nimzowitsch Defense: Kennedy Variation, Hammer Gambit has a 49.4% (90% CI: 41.9%-56.8%) win rate for white (119 Lichess games). Draw rate is 1.2%.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Kennedy Variation, Hammer Gambit win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Nimzowitsch Defense: Kennedy Variation, Hammer Gambit has a 50.7% (90% CI: 50.0%-51.4%) win rate for white (13K Lichess games). Draw rate is 2.6%.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Kennedy Variation, Hammer Gambit win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Nimzowitsch Defense: Kennedy Variation, Hammer Gambit has a 52.7% (90% CI: 52.0%-53.4%) win rate for white (14K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.5%.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Kennedy Variation, Hammer Gambit win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Nimzowitsch Defense: Kennedy Variation, Hammer Gambit has a 54.4% (90% CI: 53.2%-55.7%) win rate for white (4.3K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.9%.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Kennedy Variation, Hammer Gambit win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the Nimzowitsch Defense: Kennedy Variation, Hammer Gambit has a 51.2% (90% CI: 44.3%-58.1%) win rate for white (140 Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.2%.

Is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Kennedy Variation, Hammer Gambit a good opening?

The Nimzowitsch Defense: Kennedy Variation, Hammer Gambit is statistically favors white with a 52.1% (90% CI: 51.6%-52.5%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 1400-1599 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.