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Nimzowitsch Defense: French Connection

374K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Tough Sell
Black Expected Score47.7%Range (90% confident): 47.6% – 47.8%Based on 374K games
0%47.7%100%
Range (90% confident): 47.6% – 47.8%
Outcome Distribution
45.8%3.8%50.4%
Win
Draw
Loss
2...e6
Nimzowitsch Defense: French Connection
Analyzen=374K
Avg Length34 moves
Sharpness96%
Draw Rate3.8%

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: French Connection expected score for Black?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Nimzowitsch Defense: French Connection has a 47.7% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 47.6% and 47.8%), based on 374K Lichess games.

Black Win% by Rating

Declines with rating: 47% → 42%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 47.1% win rate (36,478 games)
  • 1000-1199: 46.4% win rate (46,337 games)
  • 1200-1399: 46.0% win rate (57,159 games)
  • 1400-1599: 46.5% win rate (64,500 games)
  • 1600-1799: 45.4% win rate (60,773 games)
  • 1800-1999: 45.7% win rate (50,260 games)
  • 2000-2199: 44.9% win rate (33,616 games)
  • 2200-2499: 43.2% win rate (21,149 games)
  • 2500+: 42.4% win rate (3,873 games)

Black Win% by Time Control

Similar across time controls (~46%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 46.1% win rate (3,721 games)
  • Bullet: 45.8% win rate (147,660 games)
  • Blitz: 45.8% win rate (163,956 games)
  • Rapid: 45.9% win rate (56,152 games)
  • Classical: 45.7% win rate (2,656 games)

Black% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 51.0% expected score (53 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 49.3% expected score (6,879 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 49.5% expected score (19,330 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 48.7% expected score (10,099 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 48.7% expected score (117 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 49.2% expected score (170 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 47.9% expected score (11,620 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 48.1% expected score (22,896 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 48.8% expected score (11,267 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 45.5% expected score (384 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 48.6% expected score (451 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 47.0% expected score (16,691 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 48.1% expected score (27,760 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 47.7% expected score (11,542 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 49.5% expected score (715 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 48.7% expected score (783 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 47.2% expected score (21,371 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 48.5% expected score (30,772 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 49.4% expected score (10,734 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 52.1% expected score (840 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 46.0% expected score (1,044 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 46.6% expected score (24,183 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 47.7% expected score (27,453 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 47.8% expected score (7,642 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 45.2% expected score (451 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 47.7% expected score (841 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 47.5% expected score (26,556 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 47.5% expected score (19,209 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 47.8% expected score (3,538 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 42.4% expected score (116 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 44.4% expected score (308 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 47.8% expected score (21,215 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 46.2% expected score (11,031 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 42.3% expected score (1,035 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 29.0% expected score (27 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 29.5% expected score (57 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 46.1% expected score (15,661 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 44.5% expected score (5,146 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 41.9% expected score (283 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 35.7% expected score (2 games)
  • 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 40.4% expected score (14 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 46.1% expected score (3,484 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 40.3% expected score (359 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 57.4% expected score (12 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 22.8% expected score (4 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Nimzowitsch Defense
50.3%
Variations (5)
Nimzowitsch Defense: Kennedy Variation, Linksspringer Variation
50.3%
Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Advance Variation
50.2%
Nimzowitsch Defense: Declined Variation
49.6%
Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Exchange Variation
48.7%
Nimzowitsch Defense: Franco-Nimzowitsch Variation
50.9%
Analyze Nimzowitsch Defense: French Connection PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: French Connection win rate?

The Nimzowitsch Defense: French Connection has a 50.4% (90% CI: 50.3%-50.6%) win rate for white, based on 374K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Nimzowitsch Defense: French Connection perform best?

The Nimzowitsch Defense: French Connection performs best at 2200-2499 Elo with a 51.9% win rate for white (21K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Nimzowitsch Defense: French Connection better in blitz or rapid?

Bullet (51.4%) outperforms Classical (49.0%) by 2.4%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Nimzowitsch Defense: French Connection?

The Nimzowitsch Defense: French Connection has a sharpness score of 96.2 (very decisive), meaning 96.2% of games end decisively. Average game length is 34 moves.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: French Connection win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the Nimzowitsch Defense: French Connection has a 48.7% (90% CI: 48.2%-49.1%) win rate for white, based on 36K Lichess games. Average game length is 28 moves with a 4.2% draw rate.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: French Connection win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Nimzowitsch Defense: French Connection has a 50.0% (90% CI: 49.6%-50.4%) win rate for white, based on 46K Lichess games. Average game length is 30 moves with a 3.6% draw rate.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: French Connection win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Nimzowitsch Defense: French Connection has a 50.6% (90% CI: 50.3%-50.9%) win rate for white, based on 57K Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 3.4% draw rate.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: French Connection win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Nimzowitsch Defense: French Connection has a 50.1% (90% CI: 49.7%-50.4%) win rate for white, based on 65K Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 3.4% draw rate.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: French Connection win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Nimzowitsch Defense: French Connection has a 50.9% (90% CI: 50.6%-51.3%) win rate for white, based on 61K Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 3.7% draw rate.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: French Connection win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Nimzowitsch Defense: French Connection has a 50.7% (90% CI: 50.4%-51.1%) win rate for white, based on 50K Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 3.6% draw rate.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: French Connection win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Nimzowitsch Defense: French Connection has a 50.9% (90% CI: 50.5%-51.4%) win rate for white, based on 34K Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 4.2% draw rate.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: French Connection win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Nimzowitsch Defense: French Connection has a 51.9% (90% CI: 51.3%-52.5%) win rate for white, based on 21K Lichess games. Average game length is 38 moves with a 4.9% draw rate.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: French Connection win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Nimzowitsch Defense: French Connection has a 51.4% (90% CI: 50.1%-52.7%) win rate for white, based on 3.9K Lichess games. Average game length is 42 moves with a 6.2% draw rate.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: French Connection win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet games, the Nimzowitsch Defense: French Connection has a 52.0% (90% CI: 50.7%-53.4%) win rate for white (3.7K Lichess games). Draw rate is 1.9%.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: French Connection win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Nimzowitsch Defense: French Connection has a 51.4% (90% CI: 51.2%-51.6%) win rate for white (148K Lichess games). Draw rate is 2.9%.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: French Connection win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Nimzowitsch Defense: French Connection has a 49.9% (90% CI: 49.7%-50.1%) win rate for white (164K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.3%.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: French Connection win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Nimzowitsch Defense: French Connection has a 49.4% (90% CI: 49.0%-49.7%) win rate for white (56K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.7%.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: French Connection win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the Nimzowitsch Defense: French Connection has a 49.0% (90% CI: 47.5%-50.6%) win rate for white (2.7K Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.2%.

Is the Nimzowitsch Defense: French Connection a good opening?

The Nimzowitsch Defense: French Connection is statistically favors white with a 50.4% (90% CI: 50.3%-50.6%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2200-2499 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.