Nimzo-Indian Defense: Three Knights Variation, Duchamp Variation
172K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
White expected score · All ratings · All speeds
50.2%
the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 50.4%.
Measured over 172K games at this level and clock.
Roughly even — the middlegame decides more than this opening choice does.
Outcomes for White
Draw 4.8 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 172K games
- Rank among the families White can choose here
- not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
- Games in this context
- 172K
- Best context
- 56.5% at 2500+ Blitz
- Worst context
- 47.9% at 1800-1999 Rapid
- Average game length
- 36 moves
- Games that end decisively
- 95.2%
- Draws
- 4.8%
Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.
Where it holds · White score by rating × clock
Green is clearly ahead for White, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It gets better as the rating rises: 39.3% at 0-999, 49.7% at 2500+.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | — | |||
| 1000-1199 | |||||
| 1200-1399 | — | ||||
| 1400-1599 | |||||
| 1600-1799 | |||||
| 1800-1999 | |||||
| 2000-2199 | |||||
| 2200-2499 | — | ||||
| 2500+ | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 0-999 rating, Bullet: 49.3% expected score (134 games)
- 0-999 rating, Blitz: 39.3% expected score (87 games)
- 0-999 rating, Rapid: 29.3% expected score (13 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 49.7% expected score (683 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 49.1% expected score (545 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 43.2% expected score (115 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 86.4% expected score (4 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 51.1% expected score (2,248 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 51.0% expected score (2,169 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 49.3% expected score (416 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (8 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 61.2% expected score (3 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 50.4% expected score (5,388 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 50.0% expected score (6,871 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 50.8% expected score (1,279 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 47.8% expected score (66 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 38.9% expected score (3 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 50.3% expected score (9,535 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 49.6% expected score (14,840 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 48.6% expected score (2,904 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 48.6% expected score (216 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 51.3% expected score (13,214 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 49.4% expected score (26,337 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 47.9% expected score (4,933 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 47.8% expected score (319 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 61.2% expected score (3 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 49.9% expected score (13,271 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 49.5% expected score (26,074 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 48.4% expected score (4,623 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 49.5% expected score (185 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 50.7% expected score (12,790 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 52.5% expected score (15,166 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 53.4% expected score (1,684 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 45.7% expected score (33 games)
- 2500+ rating, Bullet: 53.3% expected score (3,832 games)
- 2500+ rating, Blitz: 56.5% expected score (1,582 games)
- 2500+ rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (100 games)
- 2500+ rating, Classical: 38.9% expected score (12 games)
Related Openings
Methodology
Across every rating and clock, the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Three Knights Variation, Duchamp Variation scores 50.2% for White — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 50.0% and 50.4% — from 172K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
How the figures are made
- Whose games these are
- 172K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
- Which games we count
- Rated games only — nothing casual.
- Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
- At least 2 moves played.
- A game is filed under White’s rating.
- Why every number comes with a range
- A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
- How much we need before we say anything
- An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Three Knights Variation, Duchamp Variation win rate?
Playing the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Three Knights Variation, Duchamp Variation, White wins 47.8%, draws 4.8% and loses 47.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.2%. It rests on 172K rated games from Lichess.
At what rating does the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Three Knights Variation, Duchamp Variation perform best?
The Nimzo-Indian Defense: Three Knights Variation, Duchamp Variation performs best for White at 2500+, with an Expected Score of 54.1% (5.5K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.
Is the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Three Knights Variation, Duchamp Variation better in blitz or rapid?
For White, the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Three Knights Variation, Duchamp Variation scores higher in Blitz: an Expected Score of 50.2% in Blitz (94K games) against 49.0% in Rapid (16K games).
How sharp is the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Three Knights Variation, Duchamp Variation?
The Nimzo-Indian Defense: Three Knights Variation, Duchamp Variation has a sharpness score of 95.2 (very decisive), meaning 95.2% of games end decisively. Average game length is 36 moves.
What is the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Three Knights Variation, Duchamp Variation win rate at 0-999?
At 0-999, White wins 43.5%, draws 1.5% and loses 55.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 44.3%. It rests on 234 Lichess games, which average 25 moves.
What is the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Three Knights Variation, Duchamp Variation win rate at 1000-1199?
At 1000-1199, White wins 48.0%, draws 2.1% and loses 49.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.1%. It rests on 1.3K Lichess games, which average 28 moves.
What is the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Three Knights Variation, Duchamp Variation win rate at 1200-1399?
At 1200-1399, White wins 49.5%, draws 2.8% and loses 47.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.9%. It rests on 4.8K Lichess games, which average 29 moves.
What is the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Three Knights Variation, Duchamp Variation win rate at 1400-1599?
At 1400-1599, White wins 48.5%, draws 3.4% and loses 48.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.2%. It rests on 14K Lichess games, which average 32 moves.
What is the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Three Knights Variation, Duchamp Variation win rate at 1600-1799?
At 1600-1799, White wins 47.9%, draws 3.7% and loses 48.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.8%. It rests on 27K Lichess games, which average 33 moves.
What is the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Three Knights Variation, Duchamp Variation win rate at 1800-1999?
At 1800-1999, White wins 47.5%, draws 4.6% and loses 47.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.8%. It rests on 45K Lichess games, which average 36 moves.
What is the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Three Knights Variation, Duchamp Variation win rate at 2000-2199?
At 2000-2199, White wins 46.8%, draws 5.3% and loses 47.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.5%. It rests on 44K Lichess games, which average 38 moves.
What is the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Three Knights Variation, Duchamp Variation win rate at 2200-2499?
At 2200-2499, White wins 48.7%, draws 6.0% and loses 45.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.7%. It rests on 30K Lichess games, which average 39 moves.
What is the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Three Knights Variation, Duchamp Variation win rate at 2500+?
At 2500+, White wins 49.8%, draws 8.6% and loses 41.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.1%. It rests on 5.5K Lichess games, which average 43 moves.
What is the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Three Knights Variation, Duchamp Variation win rate in Bullet?
In Bullet, White wins 49.0%, draws 3.4% and loses 47.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.7%. It rests on 61K Lichess games.
What is the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Three Knights Variation, Duchamp Variation win rate in Blitz?
In Blitz, White wins 47.4%, draws 5.5% and loses 47.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.2%. It rests on 94K Lichess games.
What is the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Three Knights Variation, Duchamp Variation win rate in Rapid?
In Rapid, White wins 45.9%, draws 6.3% and loses 47.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.0%. It rests on 16K Lichess games.
What is the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Three Knights Variation, Duchamp Variation win rate in Classical?
In Classical, White wins 44.0%, draws 8.8% and loses 47.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.4%. It rests on 843 Lichess games.
Is the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Three Knights Variation, Duchamp Variation a good opening?
The Nimzo-Indian Defense: Three Knights Variation, Duchamp Variation is about level. Across all ratings, White wins 47.8% of its games and loses 47.4%. It performs best at 2500+. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.