Nimzo-Indian Defense: Three Knights Variation, Duchamp Variation, Modern Line
611 games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
White expected score · All ratings · All speeds
55.8%
the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 59.1%.
Measured over 611 games at this level and clock.
A strong choice for White at this level and clock.
Outcomes for White
Draw 7.9 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 611 games
- Rank among the families White can choose here
- not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
- Games in this context
- 611
- Best context
- not measured yet
- Average game length
- 42 moves
- Games that end decisively
- 92.1%
- Draws
- 7.9%
Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.
Where it holds · White score by rating × clock
Green is clearly ahead for White, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It gets better as the rating rises: 56.7% at 1200-1399, 62.3% at 2500+.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | — | — | — | — |
| 1000-1199 | — | — | — | — | — |
| 1200-1399 | — | — | |||
| 1400-1599 | — | — | |||
| 1600-1799 | — | — | |||
| 1800-1999 | — | ||||
| 2000-2199 | — | ||||
| 2200-2499 | — | ||||
| 2500+ | — | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 50.0% expected score (4 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 21.5% expected score (2 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 36.2% expected score (13 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 47.3% expected score (17 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 58.1% expected score (17 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 32.6% expected score (10 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 42.4% expected score (5 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 56.1% expected score (23 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 55.1% expected score (57 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (16 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 47.4% expected score (56 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 60.5% expected score (175 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 68.6% expected score (20 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
- 2500+ rating, Bullet: 57.4% expected score (114 games)
- 2500+ rating, Blitz: 56.4% expected score (69 games)
- 2500+ rating, Rapid: 73.1% expected score (5 games)
Related Openings
Methodology
Across every rating and clock, the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Three Knights Variation, Duchamp Variation, Modern Line scores 55.8% for White — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 52.5% and 59.1% — from 611 Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
How the figures are made
- Whose games these are
- 611+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
- Which games we count
- Rated games only — nothing casual.
- Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
- At least 2 moves played.
- A game is filed under White’s rating.
- Why every number comes with a range
- A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
- How much we need before we say anything
- An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Three Knights Variation, Duchamp Variation, Modern Line win rate?
Playing the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Three Knights Variation, Duchamp Variation, Modern Line, White wins 51.8%, draws 7.9% and loses 40.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 55.8%. It rests on 611 rated games from Lichess.
At what rating does the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Three Knights Variation, Duchamp Variation, Modern Line perform best?
The Nimzo-Indian Defense: Three Knights Variation, Duchamp Variation, Modern Line performs best for White at 2200-2499, with an Expected Score of 58.1% (252 games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.
Is the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Three Knights Variation, Duchamp Variation, Modern Line better in blitz or rapid?
For White, the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Three Knights Variation, Duchamp Variation, Modern Line scores higher in Blitz: an Expected Score of 57.7% in Blitz (336 games) against 55.4% in Rapid (54 games).
How sharp is the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Three Knights Variation, Duchamp Variation, Modern Line?
The Nimzo-Indian Defense: Three Knights Variation, Duchamp Variation, Modern Line has a sharpness score of 92.1 (decisive), meaning 92.1% of games end decisively. Average game length is 42 moves.
What is the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Three Knights Variation, Duchamp Variation, Modern Line win rate at 2200-2499?
At 2200-2499, White wins 55.8%, draws 4.5% and loses 39.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 58.1%. It rests on 252 Lichess games, which average 41 moves.
What is the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Three Knights Variation, Duchamp Variation, Modern Line win rate at 2500+?
At 2500+, White wins 52.0%, draws 11.3% and loses 36.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 57.7%. It rests on 188 Lichess games, which average 41 moves.
What is the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Three Knights Variation, Duchamp Variation, Modern Line win rate in Bullet?
In Bullet, White wins 49.0%, draws 8.6% and loses 42.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.3%. It rests on 214 Lichess games.
What is the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Three Knights Variation, Duchamp Variation, Modern Line win rate in Blitz?
In Blitz, White wins 54.4%, draws 6.7% and loses 39.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 57.7%. It rests on 336 Lichess games.
Is the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Three Knights Variation, Duchamp Variation, Modern Line a good opening?
The Nimzo-Indian Defense: Three Knights Variation, Duchamp Variation, Modern Line is good for White. Across all ratings, White wins 51.8% of its games and loses 40.2%. It performs best at 2200-2499. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.