What is the King's Pawn Opening expected score for White?
Snapshot
Overall, the King's Pawn Opening family has a 48.1% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 48.0% and 48.2%), aggregated from 3 variations and 876K Lichess games.
King's Pawn Opening
3 variations · 876K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
Key Finding
King's Pawn Opening is balanced for White at 48.1% expected score.
This opening produces roughly even results, with outcomes depending more on middlegame play than opening choice.
You play
Tough Sell
Rating
Time
White Expected Score0.0%Range (90% confident): 48.0% – 48.2%Aggregated from 3 variations
0%48.1%100%
Range (90% confident): 48.0% – 48.2%
ContextOverall · n=876K
Outcome Distribution
46.2%3.7%50.1%
Win
Draw
Loss
2.b3
King's Pawn Opening
Variations3
Games (Context)876K
Avg Length32 moves
Draw Rate3.7%
What Should I Play?
Player-controlled continuations for White · Overall
Continuations show the most common variations from this opening. Higher expected scores indicate better statistical outcomes, but familiarity and playstyle matter too.
White Win% by Rating
Improves with rating: 43% → 50%
0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+
- 0-999: 42.8% win rate (108,904 games)
- 1000-1199: 46.2% win rate (138,619 games)
- 1200-1399: 46.8% win rate (175,905 games)
- 1400-1599: 46.6% win rate (188,647 games)
- 1600-1799: 47.0% win rate (152,570 games)
- 1800-1999: 46.8% win rate (76,024 games)
- 2000-2199: 47.7% win rate (27,752 games)
- 2200-2499: 47.6% win rate (6,193 games)
- 2500+: 50.0% win rate (1,589 games)
White Win% by Time Control
Best in Bullet (48%), worst in UltraBullet (42%)
UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical
- UltraBullet: 41.9% win rate (1,017 games)
- Bullet: 47.5% win rate (176,264 games)
- Blitz: 46.4% win rate (473,593 games)
- Rapid: 44.9% win rate (215,830 games)
- Classical: 42.7% win rate (9,499 games)
Rating vs Time Control Matrix
Click cells to filter · White expected scores
White% by Rating × Time Control
Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | |||||
| 1000-1199 | |||||
| 1200-1399 | |||||
| 1400-1599 | |||||
| 1600-1799 | |||||
| 1800-1999 | |||||
| 2000-2199 | |||||
| 2200-2499 | |||||
| 2500+ | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 41.8% expected score (47 games)
- 0-999 rating, Bullet: 46.3% expected score (14,951 games)
- 0-999 rating, Blitz: 45.2% expected score (59,585 games)
- 0-999 rating, Rapid: 43.8% expected score (33,935 games)
- 0-999 rating, Classical: 39.3% expected score (386 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 38.8% expected score (124 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 49.3% expected score (25,696 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 48.4% expected score (74,729 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 46.3% expected score (37,002 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 46.1% expected score (1,068 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 37.4% expected score (241 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 48.5% expected score (32,823 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 48.8% expected score (96,954 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 47.9% expected score (43,822 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 43.9% expected score (2,065 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 44.1% expected score (284 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 48.3% expected score (33,539 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 48.8% expected score (105,446 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 47.6% expected score (45,593 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 45.8% expected score (3,785 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 48.1% expected score (155 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 48.6% expected score (30,007 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 49.2% expected score (84,095 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 48.9% expected score (36,564 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 45.7% expected score (1,749 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 42.4% expected score (129 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 49.3% expected score (19,099 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 48.9% expected score (40,303 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 48.1% expected score (16,092 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 47.4% expected score (401 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 42.6% expected score (12 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 50.3% expected score (14,386 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 48.5% expected score (10,752 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 48.9% expected score (2,563 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 51.2% expected score (39 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (23 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 49.8% expected score (4,294 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 49.6% expected score (1,616 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 52.9% expected score (254 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 56.7% expected score (6 games)
- 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 78.6% expected score (2 games)
- 2500+ rating, Bullet: 53.4% expected score (1,469 games)
- 2500+ rating, Blitz: 52.6% expected score (113 games)
- 2500+ rating, Rapid: 34.7% expected score (5 games)
Matrix view reveals how performance varies across rating brackets and time controls. Green indicates favorable, red indicates challenging contexts.
Variations (3)
Analyze King's Pawn Opening PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the King's Pawn Opening win rate?
The King's Pawn Opening family has a 46.2% (90% CI: 46.1%-46.3%) win rate for white, aggregated from 3 variations and 876K rated games from Lichess.
How many King's Pawn Opening variations are there?
This analysis covers 3 King's Pawn Opening variations with sufficient game data. Each variation has its own statistics page with detailed win rates by rating and time control.
At what rating does the King's Pawn Opening perform best?
The King's Pawn Opening family performs best at 2500+ Elo with a 50.0% win rate for white (1.6K games). Performance may vary by specific variation.
Is the King's Pawn Opening better in blitz or rapid?
Bullet (47.5%) outperforms UltraBullet (41.9%) by 5.6% across all King's Pawn Opening variations.
How sharp is the King's Pawn Opening?
King's Pawn Opening games are 96.3% decisive (non-draws), with an average length of 32 moves. Sharpness varies by specific variation.
Is the King's Pawn Opening a good opening family?
The King's Pawn Opening family is slightly favors black overall with a 46.2% (90% CI: 46.1%-46.3%) aggregated win rate. However, win rates vary significantly between the 3 variations—explore individual lines to find the best fit for your style.