King's Pawn Opening
3 variations · 876K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
White expected score · Overall
48.1%
the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 48.2%.
Measured over 876K games at this level and clock.
Roughly even — the middlegame decides more than this opening choice does.
Outcomes for White
Draw 3.7 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 876K games
- Rank among the families White can choose here
- #46 of 56
- Games in this context
- 876K
- Best context
- 53.4% at 2500+ Bullet
- Worst context
- 43.8% at 0-999 Rapid
- Variations measured
- 3
- Average game length
- 32 moves
Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.
What to play from here
White · OverallThese are the moves players actually choose from here, ranked by how they score. A higher score is a better bet on the numbers alone — familiarity and playstyle still matter.
Where it holds · White score by rating × clock
Green is clearly ahead for White, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It gets better as the rating rises: 43.3% at 0-999, 54.8% at 2500+.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | |||||
| 1000-1199 | |||||
| 1200-1399 | |||||
| 1400-1599 | |||||
| 1600-1799 | |||||
| 1800-1999 | |||||
| 2000-2199 | |||||
| 2200-2499 | |||||
| 2500+ | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 41.8% expected score (47 games)
- 0-999 rating, Bullet: 46.3% expected score (14,951 games)
- 0-999 rating, Blitz: 45.2% expected score (59,585 games)
- 0-999 rating, Rapid: 43.8% expected score (33,935 games)
- 0-999 rating, Classical: 39.3% expected score (386 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 38.8% expected score (124 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 49.3% expected score (25,696 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 48.4% expected score (74,729 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 46.3% expected score (37,002 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 46.1% expected score (1,068 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 37.4% expected score (241 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 48.5% expected score (32,823 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 48.8% expected score (96,954 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 47.9% expected score (43,822 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 43.9% expected score (2,065 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 44.1% expected score (284 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 48.3% expected score (33,539 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 48.8% expected score (105,446 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 47.6% expected score (45,593 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 45.8% expected score (3,785 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 48.1% expected score (155 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 48.6% expected score (30,007 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 49.2% expected score (84,095 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 48.9% expected score (36,564 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 45.7% expected score (1,749 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 42.4% expected score (129 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 49.3% expected score (19,099 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 48.9% expected score (40,303 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 48.1% expected score (16,092 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 47.4% expected score (401 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 42.6% expected score (12 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 50.3% expected score (14,386 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 48.5% expected score (10,752 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 48.9% expected score (2,563 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 51.2% expected score (39 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (23 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 49.8% expected score (4,294 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 49.6% expected score (1,616 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 52.9% expected score (254 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 56.7% expected score (6 games)
- 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 78.6% expected score (2 games)
- 2500+ rating, Bullet: 53.4% expected score (1,469 games)
- 2500+ rating, Blitz: 52.6% expected score (113 games)
- 2500+ rating, Rapid: 34.7% expected score (5 games)
3 variations · ranked by floor
Floor — the worst score you would still get, 90% confident.
Methodology
Across every rating and clock, the King's Pawn Opening family scores 48.1% for White — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 48.0% and 48.2% — from 876K Lichess games across 3 variations. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
How the figures are made
- Whose games these are
- 876K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
- Which games we count
- Rated games only — nothing casual.
- Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
- At least 2 moves played.
- A game is filed under White’s rating.
- Why every number comes with a range
- A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
- How much we need before we say anything
- An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the King's Pawn Opening win rate?
Across the King's Pawn Opening's 3 variations, White wins 46.2%, draws 3.7% and loses 50.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.1%. It rests on 876K rated games from Lichess.
How many King's Pawn Opening variations are there?
3 King's Pawn Opening variations have a page of their own, each broken down by rating and by clock.
At what rating does the King's Pawn Opening perform best?
The King's Pawn Opening family performs best for White at 2500+, with an Expected Score of 53.3% (1.6K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read. Performance may vary by specific variation.
Is the King's Pawn Opening better in blitz or rapid?
For White, the King's Pawn Opening scores higher in Blitz: an Expected Score of 48.4% in Blitz (474K games) against 47.1% in Rapid (216K games).
How sharp is the King's Pawn Opening?
King's Pawn Opening games are 96.3% decisive (non-draws), with an average length of 32 moves. Sharpness varies by specific variation.
Is the King's Pawn Opening a good opening family?
The King's Pawn Opening family is hard work for White — it favours Black overall. Across its games, White wins 46.2% and loses 50.1%. Results differ between its 3 variations, so open the one you play for its own figures.