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King's Pawn Opening: Speers

35K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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Analyze this line move by move

White expected score · All ratings · All speeds

35.3%

30%55%
Floor34.9%

the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 35.8%.

Measured over 35K games at this level and clock.

Tough Sellloses more often than it wins at this level

White comes out behind here — there are better weapons in the list.

Outcomes for White

Draw 4.2 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 35K games

Rank among the families White can choose here
not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
Games in this context
35K
Best context
38.1% at 1000-1199 Bullet
Worst context
31.3% at 1400-1599 Blitz
Average game length
27 moves
Games that end decisively
95.8%
Draws
4.2%

Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.

Where it holds · White score by rating × clock

Green is clearly ahead for White, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It gets better as the rating rises: 37.0% at 0-999, 50.0% at 2500+.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 39.7% expected score (13 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 37.5% expected score (2,117 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 36.2% expected score (10,467 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 36.2% expected score (9,947 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 35.5% expected score (126 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 16.7% expected score (15 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 38.1% expected score (736 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 35.4% expected score (2,981 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 33.9% expected score (3,174 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 32.5% expected score (244 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 34.2% expected score (27 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 29.5% expected score (446 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 34.2% expected score (1,189 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 32.6% expected score (1,141 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 32.4% expected score (191 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (12 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 30.5% expected score (385 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 31.3% expected score (553 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 26.2% expected score (469 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 21.0% expected score (145 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 36.3% expected score (119 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 30.8% expected score (139 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 29.9% expected score (73 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 25.9% expected score (13 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 35.3% expected score (63 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 31.2% expected score (33 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 24.4% expected score (18 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 41.0% expected score (37 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 27.5% expected score (14 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 52.9% expected score (16 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 83.4% expected score (3 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 50.0% expected score (2 games)

Related Openings

Analyze King's Pawn Opening: Speers PositionsSee what each move is worth at your rating, move by move

Methodology

Across every rating and clock, the King's Pawn Opening: Speers scores 35.3% for White — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 34.9% and 35.8% — from 35K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.

How the figures are made
Whose games these are
35K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
Which games we count
  • Rated games only — nothing casual.
  • Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
  • At least 2 moves played.
  • A game is filed under White’s rating.
Why every number comes with a range
A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
How much we need before we say anything
An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the King's Pawn Opening: Speers win rate?

Playing the King's Pawn Opening: Speers, White wins 33.2%, draws 4.2% and loses 62.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 35.3%. It rests on 35K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the King's Pawn Opening: Speers perform best?

The King's Pawn Opening: Speers performs best for White at 0-999, with an Expected Score of 36.3% (23K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.

Is the King's Pawn Opening: Speers better in blitz or rapid?

For White, the King's Pawn Opening: Speers scores about the same in both: an Expected Score of 35.7% in Blitz (15K games) against 35.1% in Rapid (15K games).

How sharp is the King's Pawn Opening: Speers?

The King's Pawn Opening: Speers has a sharpness score of 95.8 (very decisive), meaning 95.8% of games end decisively. Average game length is 27 moves.

What is the King's Pawn Opening: Speers win rate at 0-999?

At 0-999, White wins 34.1%, draws 4.5% and loses 61.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 36.3%. It rests on 23K Lichess games, which average 26 moves.

What is the King's Pawn Opening: Speers win rate at 1000-1199?

At 1000-1199, White wins 32.8%, draws 4.2% and loses 63.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 34.9%. It rests on 7.2K Lichess games, which average 28 moves.

What is the King's Pawn Opening: Speers win rate at 1200-1399?

At 1200-1399, White wins 31.0%, draws 3.5% and loses 65.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 32.8%. It rests on 3.0K Lichess games, which average 29 moves.

What is the King's Pawn Opening: Speers win rate at 1400-1599?

At 1400-1599, White wins 27.2%, draws 3.0% and loses 69.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 28.7%. It rests on 1.6K Lichess games, which average 28 moves.

What is the King's Pawn Opening: Speers win rate at 1600-1799?

At 1600-1799, White wins 30.4%, draws 3.6% and loses 66.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 32.2%. It rests on 346 Lichess games, which average 32 moves.

What is the King's Pawn Opening: Speers win rate at 1800-1999?

At 1800-1999, White wins 29.9%, draws 3.9% and loses 66.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 31.9%. It rests on 114 Lichess games, which average 34 moves.

What is the King's Pawn Opening: Speers win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet, White wins 35.3%, draws 1.4% and loses 63.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 36.0%. It rests on 3.9K Lichess games.

What is the King's Pawn Opening: Speers win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz, White wins 33.6%, draws 4.1% and loses 62.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 35.7%. It rests on 15K Lichess games.

What is the King's Pawn Opening: Speers win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid, White wins 32.5%, draws 5.2% and loses 62.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 35.1%. It rests on 15K Lichess games.

What is the King's Pawn Opening: Speers win rate in Classical?

In Classical, White wins 27.8%, draws 5.1% and loses 67.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 30.4%. It rests on 719 Lichess games.

Is the King's Pawn Opening: Speers a good opening?

The King's Pawn Opening: Speers is hard work for White — it favours Black. Across all ratings, White wins 33.2% of its games and loses 62.6%. It performs best at 0-999. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.