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King's Indian Attack: Sicilian Variation

907K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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Analyze this line move by move

Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds

44.5%

40%55%
Floor44.4%

the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 44.6%.

Measured over 907K games at this level and clock.

Tough Sellloses more often than it wins at this level

Black comes out behind here — there are better weapons in the list.

Outcomes for Black

Draw 4.5 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 907K games

Rank among the families Black can choose here
not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
Games in this context
907K
Best context
49.6% at 0-999 Blitz
Worst context
40.4% at 2500+ Bullet
Average game length
37 moves
Games that end decisively
95.5%
Draws
4.5%

Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.

Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock

Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It falls away as the rating rises: 47.2% at 0-999, 41.6% at 2500+.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 42.9% expected score (48 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 47.5% expected score (3,503 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 49.6% expected score (5,820 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 48.8% expected score (1,907 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 47.0% expected score (15 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (134 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 45.4% expected score (7,957 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 46.5% expected score (11,158 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 47.7% expected score (3,605 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 54.9% expected score (71 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 47.4% expected score (540 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 45.8% expected score (17,360 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 46.2% expected score (18,487 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 47.2% expected score (5,985 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 47.1% expected score (188 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 45.6% expected score (1,636 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 45.4% expected score (34,616 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 46.2% expected score (33,542 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 46.8% expected score (9,225 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 49.1% expected score (440 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 43.2% expected score (2,944 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 44.7% expected score (57,458 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 46.3% expected score (56,920 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 47.5% expected score (12,298 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 48.5% expected score (765 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 41.1% expected score (2,492 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 44.4% expected score (90,677 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 45.3% expected score (71,808 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 46.6% expected score (12,992 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 49.1% expected score (689 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 40.9% expected score (1,318 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 44.1% expected score (110,269 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 44.3% expected score (72,722 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 45.3% expected score (9,785 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 42.8% expected score (365 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 40.8% expected score (666 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 43.2% expected score (136,527 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 43.0% expected score (50,515 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 44.5% expected score (5,333 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 39.6% expected score (123 games)
  • 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 35.8% expected score (30 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 40.4% expected score (46,517 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 41.4% expected score (6,860 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 46.2% expected score (298 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 44.2% expected score (33 games)

Related Openings

Parent
King's Indian Attack
51.3%
Variations (5)
King's Indian Attack: Symmetrical Defense
50.0%
King's Indian Attack: French Variation
51.7%
King's Indian Attack: Yugoslav Variation
50.5%
King's Indian Attack: Keres Variation
51.7%
King's Indian Attack: Wahls Defense
50.0%
Analyze King's Indian Attack: Sicilian Variation PositionsSee what each move is worth at your rating, move by move

Methodology

Across every rating and clock, the King's Indian Attack: Sicilian Variation scores 44.5% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 44.4% and 44.6% — from 907K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.

How the figures are made
Whose games these are
907K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
Which games we count
  • Rated games only — nothing casual.
  • Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
  • At least 2 moves played.
  • A game is filed under White’s rating.
Why every number comes with a range
A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
How much we need before we say anything
An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the King's Indian Attack: Sicilian Variation win rate?

Playing the King's Indian Attack: Sicilian Variation, Black wins 42.2%, draws 4.5% and loses 53.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 44.5%. It rests on 907K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the King's Indian Attack: Sicilian Variation perform best?

The King's Indian Attack: Sicilian Variation performs best for Black at 0-999, with an Expected Score of 48.8% (11K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.

Is the King's Indian Attack: Sicilian Variation better in blitz or rapid?

For Black, the King's Indian Attack: Sicilian Variation scores higher in Rapid: an Expected Score of 45.1% in Blitz (328K games) against 46.6% in Rapid (61K games).

How sharp is the King's Indian Attack: Sicilian Variation?

The King's Indian Attack: Sicilian Variation has a sharpness score of 95.5 (very decisive), meaning 95.5% of games end decisively. Average game length is 37 moves.

What is the King's Indian Attack: Sicilian Variation win rate at 0-999?

At 0-999, Black wins 47.1%, draws 3.3% and loses 49.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.8%. It rests on 11K Lichess games, which average 28 moves.

What is the King's Indian Attack: Sicilian Variation win rate at 1000-1199?

At 1000-1199, Black wins 44.9%, draws 3.0% and loses 52.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.4%. It rests on 23K Lichess games, which average 30 moves.

What is the King's Indian Attack: Sicilian Variation win rate at 1200-1399?

At 1200-1399, Black wins 44.7%, draws 3.0% and loses 52.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.2%. It rests on 43K Lichess games, which average 32 moves.

What is the King's Indian Attack: Sicilian Variation win rate at 1400-1599?

At 1400-1599, Black wins 44.3%, draws 3.2% and loses 52.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.9%. It rests on 79K Lichess games, which average 34 moves.

What is the King's Indian Attack: Sicilian Variation win rate at 1600-1799?

At 1600-1799, Black wins 43.7%, draws 3.9% and loses 52.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.7%. It rests on 130K Lichess games, which average 36 moves.

What is the King's Indian Attack: Sicilian Variation win rate at 1800-1999?

At 1800-1999, Black wins 42.7%, draws 4.3% and loses 52.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 44.9%. It rests on 179K Lichess games, which average 37 moves.

What is the King's Indian Attack: Sicilian Variation win rate at 2000-2199?

At 2000-2199, Black wins 41.8%, draws 4.8% and loses 53.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 44.2%. It rests on 194K Lichess games, which average 38 moves.

What is the King's Indian Attack: Sicilian Variation win rate at 2200-2499?

At 2200-2499, Black wins 40.5%, draws 5.3% and loses 54.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 43.2%. It rests on 193K Lichess games, which average 40 moves.

What is the King's Indian Attack: Sicilian Variation win rate at 2500+?

At 2500+, Black wins 37.4%, draws 6.4% and loses 56.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 40.6%. It rests on 54K Lichess games, which average 43 moves.

What is the King's Indian Attack: Sicilian Variation win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet, Black wins 41.4%, draws 2.8% and loses 55.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 42.9%. It rests on 9.8K Lichess games.

What is the King's Indian Attack: Sicilian Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet, Black wins 41.8%, draws 3.9% and loses 54.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 43.8%. It rests on 505K Lichess games.

What is the King's Indian Attack: Sicilian Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz, Black wins 42.5%, draws 5.2% and loses 52.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.1%. It rests on 328K Lichess games.

What is the King's Indian Attack: Sicilian Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid, Black wins 43.7%, draws 5.7% and loses 50.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.6%. It rests on 61K Lichess games.

What is the King's Indian Attack: Sicilian Variation win rate in Classical?

In Classical, Black wins 43.6%, draws 7.9% and loses 48.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.6%. It rests on 2.7K Lichess games.

Is the King's Indian Attack: Sicilian Variation a good opening?

The King's Indian Attack: Sicilian Variation is hard work for Black — it favours White. Across all ratings, Black wins 42.2% of its games and loses 53.3%. It performs best at 0-999. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.