19K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
At all ratings, the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Steinitz Variation has a 52.0% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 51.4% and 52.6%), based on 19K Lichess games.
Stable across ratings (~53%)
Best in Bullet (51%), worst in Classical (44%)
Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | — | |||
| 1000-1199 | — | ||||
| 1200-1399 | — | ||||
| 1400-1599 | — | ||||
| 1600-1799 | — | ||||
| 1800-1999 | — | ||||
| 2000-2199 | — | ||||
| 2200-2499 | — | ||||
| 2500+ | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
The Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Steinitz Variation has a 49.8% (90% CI: 49.2%-50.4%) win rate for white, based on 19K rated games from Lichess.
The Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Steinitz Variation performs best at 2200-2499 Elo with a 50.7% win rate for white (3.5K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.
Bullet (51.1%) outperforms Classical (43.8%) by 7.3%. Choose your time control wisely.
The Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Steinitz Variation has a sharpness score of 95.6 (very decisive), meaning 95.6% of games end decisively. Average game length is 36 moves.
At 1000-1199 Elo, the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Steinitz Variation has a 47.2% (90% CI: 41.6%-52.7%) win rate for white, based on 218 Lichess games. Average game length is 26 moves with a 2.1% draw rate.
At 1200-1399 Elo, the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Steinitz Variation has a 48.6% (90% CI: 45.8%-51.5%) win rate for white, based on 826 Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 2.1% draw rate.
At 1400-1599 Elo, the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Steinitz Variation has a 48.0% (90% CI: 46.0%-50.0%) win rate for white, based on 1.7K Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 3.9% draw rate.
At 1600-1799 Elo, the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Steinitz Variation has a 48.8% (90% CI: 47.3%-50.4%) win rate for white, based on 2.9K Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 3.2% draw rate.
At 1800-1999 Elo, the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Steinitz Variation has a 50.3% (90% CI: 49.1%-51.6%) win rate for white, based on 4.3K Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 3.8% draw rate.
At 2000-2199 Elo, the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Steinitz Variation has a 49.8% (90% CI: 48.7%-50.9%) win rate for white, based on 5.2K Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 5.0% draw rate.
At 2200-2499 Elo, the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Steinitz Variation has a 50.7% (90% CI: 49.3%-52.1%) win rate for white, based on 3.5K Lichess games. Average game length is 39 moves with a 5.4% draw rate.
At 2500+ Elo, the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Steinitz Variation has a 52.2% (90% CI: 48.9%-55.5%) win rate for white, based on 616 Lichess games. Average game length is 47 moves with a 9.5% draw rate.
In Bullet games, the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Steinitz Variation has a 51.1% (90% CI: 49.9%-52.2%) win rate for white (5.4K Lichess games). Draw rate is 2.9%.
In Blitz games, the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Steinitz Variation has a 49.7% (90% CI: 49.0%-50.5%) win rate for white (11K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.9%.
In Rapid games, the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Steinitz Variation has a 47.7% (90% CI: 46.1%-49.3%) win rate for white (2.6K Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.4%.
In Classical games, the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Steinitz Variation has a 43.8% (90% CI: 36.5%-51.1%) win rate for white (123 Lichess games). Draw rate is 8.4%.
The Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Steinitz Variation is statistically balanced with a 49.8% (90% CI: 49.2%-50.4%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2200-2499 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.