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Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Polerio Defense, Kieseritzky Variation

160K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Playable
White Expected Score51.7%Range (90% confident): 51.5% – 51.9%Based on 160K games
0%51.7%100%
Range (90% confident): 51.5% – 51.9%
Outcome Distribution
49.7%3.9%46.4%
Win
Draw
Loss
6.d3
Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Polerio Defense, Kieseritzky Variation
Analyzen=160K
Avg Length33 moves
Sharpness96%
Draw Rate3.9%

What is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Polerio Defense, Kieseritzky Variation expected score for White?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Polerio Defense, Kieseritzky Variation has a 51.7% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 51.5% and 51.9%), based on 160K Lichess games.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Gambit BreakpointWhite

Peak: +17.4% · Breakpoint: 0-999

White Win% by Rating

Improves with rating: 45% → 58%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 44.7% win rate (7,233 games)
  • 1000-1199: 47.3% win rate (19,439 games)
  • 1200-1399: 48.1% win rate (25,118 games)
  • 1400-1599: 48.4% win rate (27,268 games)
  • 1600-1799: 50.3% win rate (26,180 games)
  • 1800-1999: 51.3% win rate (23,988 games)
  • 2000-2199: 52.5% win rate (17,706 games)
  • 2200-2499: 53.6% win rate (10,794 games)
  • 2500+: 57.6% win rate (1,995 games)

White Win% by Time Control

Best in Bullet (51%), worst in UltraBullet (30%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 29.8% win rate (27 games)
  • Bullet: 51.2% win rate (36,971 games)
  • Blitz: 50.2% win rate (83,504 games)
  • Rapid: 47.3% win rate (37,741 games)
  • Classical: 46.9% win rate (1,478 games)

White% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199—
2200-2499—
2500+—

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 46.7% expected score (2,143 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 47.0% expected score (3,641 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 42.9% expected score (1,443 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 42.4% expected score (5 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 49.4% expected score (4,428 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 49.0% expected score (9,841 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 48.0% expected score (5,137 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 51.6% expected score (31 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (6 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 50.9% expected score (4,715 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 50.6% expected score (12,089 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 48.3% expected score (8,080 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 46.1% expected score (228 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 30.7% expected score (14 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 51.8% expected score (5,273 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 50.8% expected score (13,562 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 48.5% expected score (8,009 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 46.2% expected score (410 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 16.7% expected score (3 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 51.3% expected score (5,291 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 53.5% expected score (13,824 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 50.2% expected score (6,574 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 52.5% expected score (488 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 53.8% expected score (4,303 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 54.1% expected score (14,011 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 51.6% expected score (5,452 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 54.5% expected score (221 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 54.1% expected score (4,697 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 55.1% expected score (10,686 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 55.3% expected score (2,240 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 51.2% expected score (83 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 57.0% expected score (4,564 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 55.9% expected score (5,430 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 54.4% expected score (789 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 58.0% expected score (11 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 60.6% expected score (1,557 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 60.7% expected score (420 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 47.3% expected score (17 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (1 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Italian Game
55.0%
Variations (5)
Italian Game: Anti-Fried Liver Defense
51.3%
Italian Game: Bird's Attack
47.2%
Italian Game: Blackburne-Kostić Gambit
46.9%
Italian Game: Blackburne-Kosti�� Gambit
44.3%
Italian Game: Classical Variation
51.6%
Analyze Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Polerio Defense, Kieseritzky Variation PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Polerio Defense, Kieseritzky Variation win rate?

The Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Polerio Defense, Kieseritzky Variation has a 49.7% (90% CI: 49.5%-49.9%) win rate for white, based on 160K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Polerio Defense, Kieseritzky Variation perform best?

The Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Polerio Defense, Kieseritzky Variation performs best at 2500+ Elo with a 57.6% win rate for white (2.0K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Polerio Defense, Kieseritzky Variation better in blitz or rapid?

Bullet (51.2%) outperforms Classical (46.9%) by 4.3%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Polerio Defense, Kieseritzky Variation?

The Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Polerio Defense, Kieseritzky Variation has a sharpness score of 96.1 (very decisive), meaning 96.1% of games end decisively. Average game length is 33 moves.

What is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Polerio Defense, Kieseritzky Variation win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Polerio Defense, Kieseritzky Variation has a 44.7% (90% CI: 43.7%-45.6%) win rate for white, based on 7.2K Lichess games. Average game length is 26 moves with a 2.8% draw rate.

What is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Polerio Defense, Kieseritzky Variation win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Polerio Defense, Kieseritzky Variation has a 47.3% (90% CI: 46.7%-47.9%) win rate for white, based on 19K Lichess games. Average game length is 29 moves with a 3.0% draw rate.

What is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Polerio Defense, Kieseritzky Variation win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Polerio Defense, Kieseritzky Variation has a 48.1% (90% CI: 47.6%-48.6%) win rate for white, based on 25K Lichess games. Average game length is 30 moves with a 3.5% draw rate.

What is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Polerio Defense, Kieseritzky Variation win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Polerio Defense, Kieseritzky Variation has a 48.4% (90% CI: 47.9%-48.9%) win rate for white, based on 27K Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 3.6% draw rate.

What is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Polerio Defense, Kieseritzky Variation win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Polerio Defense, Kieseritzky Variation has a 50.3% (90% CI: 49.8%-50.8%) win rate for white, based on 26K Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 3.7% draw rate.

What is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Polerio Defense, Kieseritzky Variation win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Polerio Defense, Kieseritzky Variation has a 51.3% (90% CI: 50.7%-51.8%) win rate for white, based on 24K Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 4.3% draw rate.

What is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Polerio Defense, Kieseritzky Variation win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Polerio Defense, Kieseritzky Variation has a 52.5% (90% CI: 51.9%-53.1%) win rate for white, based on 18K Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 4.8% draw rate.

What is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Polerio Defense, Kieseritzky Variation win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Polerio Defense, Kieseritzky Variation has a 53.6% (90% CI: 52.8%-54.4%) win rate for white, based on 11K Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 5.3% draw rate.

What is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Polerio Defense, Kieseritzky Variation win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Polerio Defense, Kieseritzky Variation has a 57.6% (90% CI: 55.8%-59.4%) win rate for white, based on 2.0K Lichess games. Average game length is 42 moves with a 5.8% draw rate.

What is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Polerio Defense, Kieseritzky Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Polerio Defense, Kieseritzky Variation has a 51.2% (90% CI: 50.7%-51.6%) win rate for white (37K Lichess games). Draw rate is 2.7%.

What is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Polerio Defense, Kieseritzky Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Polerio Defense, Kieseritzky Variation has a 50.2% (90% CI: 49.9%-50.5%) win rate for white (84K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.1%.

What is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Polerio Defense, Kieseritzky Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Polerio Defense, Kieseritzky Variation has a 47.3% (90% CI: 46.9%-47.7%) win rate for white (38K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.3%.

What is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Polerio Defense, Kieseritzky Variation win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Polerio Defense, Kieseritzky Variation has a 46.9% (90% CI: 44.7%-49.0%) win rate for white (1.5K Lichess games). Draw rate is 6.1%.

Is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Polerio Defense, Kieseritzky Variation a good opening?

The Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Polerio Defense, Kieseritzky Variation is statistically balanced with a 49.7% (90% CI: 49.5%-49.9%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2500+ Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.