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Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Polerio Defense, Bogoljubow Variation

344K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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White Expected Score52.4%Range (90% confident): 52.2% – 52.5%Based on 344K games
0%52.4%100%
Range (90% confident): 52.2% – 52.5%
Outcome Distribution
50.9%3.0%46.1%
Win
Draw
Loss
8.Qf3
Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Polerio Defense, Bogoljubow Variation
Analyzen=344K
Avg Length32 moves
Sharpness97%
Draw Rate3.0%

What is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Polerio Defense, Bogoljubow Variation expected score for White?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Polerio Defense, Bogoljubow Variation has a 52.4% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 52.2% and 52.5%), based on 344K Lichess games.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Gambit BreakpointWhite

Peak: +11.7% · Breakpoint: 0-999

White Win% by Rating

Improves with rating: 47% → 55%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 47.4% win rate (2,375 games)
  • 1000-1199: 50.5% win rate (10,780 games)
  • 1200-1399: 50.0% win rate (31,200 games)
  • 1400-1599: 51.0% win rate (61,150 games)
  • 1600-1799: 50.9% win rate (87,650 games)
  • 1800-1999: 50.7% win rate (82,691 games)
  • 2000-2199: 51.3% win rate (48,921 games)
  • 2200-2499: 51.9% win rate (17,993 games)
  • 2500+: 54.8% win rate (1,687 games)

White Win% by Time Control

Similar across time controls (~52%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 51.2% win rate (62 games)
  • Bullet: 50.2% win rate (110,020 games)
  • Blitz: 51.3% win rate (176,715 games)
  • Rapid: 50.7% win rate (55,191 games)
  • Classical: 51.6% win rate (2,459 games)

White% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999—
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+—

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 21.5% expected score (2 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 50.1% expected score (1,421 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 44.4% expected score (720 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 48.9% expected score (232 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (4 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 52.2% expected score (5,338 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 50.7% expected score (4,178 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 49.9% expected score (1,249 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 58.0% expected score (11 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 46.0% expected score (11 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 51.0% expected score (12,187 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 51.5% expected score (14,663 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (4,259 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 54.3% expected score (80 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 67.1% expected score (19 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 51.8% expected score (19,777 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 52.4% expected score (31,064 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 52.4% expected score (9,924 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 50.3% expected score (366 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 40.9% expected score (15 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 50.8% expected score (22,013 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 52.8% expected score (49,179 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 53.2% expected score (15,559 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 53.4% expected score (884 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 65.8% expected score (8 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 50.9% expected score (21,606 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 53.0% expected score (44,964 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 52.5% expected score (15,204 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 56.4% expected score (909 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 50.9% expected score (16,797 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 54.6% expected score (24,689 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 53.2% expected score (7,253 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 49.2% expected score (180 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 52.7% expected score (9,603 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 55.3% expected score (6,883 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 55.7% expected score (1,478 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 68.7% expected score (28 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 56.1% expected score (1,278 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 63.7% expected score (375 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 57.3% expected score (33 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 70.0% expected score (1 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Italian Game
55.0%
Variations (5)
Italian Game: Anti-Fried Liver Defense
51.3%
Italian Game: Bird's Attack
47.2%
Italian Game: Blackburne-Kostić Gambit
46.9%
Italian Game: Blackburne-Kosti�� Gambit
44.3%
Italian Game: Classical Variation
51.6%
Analyze Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Polerio Defense, Bogoljubow Variation PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Polerio Defense, Bogoljubow Variation win rate?

The Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Polerio Defense, Bogoljubow Variation has a 50.9% (90% CI: 50.7%-51.0%) win rate for white, based on 344K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Polerio Defense, Bogoljubow Variation perform best?

The Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Polerio Defense, Bogoljubow Variation performs best at 2500+ Elo with a 54.8% win rate for white (1.7K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Polerio Defense, Bogoljubow Variation better in blitz or rapid?

Blitz (51.3%) outperforms UltraBullet (51.2%) by 0.1%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Polerio Defense, Bogoljubow Variation?

The Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Polerio Defense, Bogoljubow Variation has a sharpness score of 97.0 (very decisive), meaning 97.0% of games end decisively. Average game length is 32 moves.

What is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Polerio Defense, Bogoljubow Variation win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Polerio Defense, Bogoljubow Variation has a 47.4% (90% CI: 45.8%-49.1%) win rate for white, based on 2.4K Lichess games. Average game length is 23 moves with a 1.5% draw rate.

What is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Polerio Defense, Bogoljubow Variation win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Polerio Defense, Bogoljubow Variation has a 50.5% (90% CI: 49.7%-51.3%) win rate for white, based on 11K Lichess games. Average game length is 25 moves with a 1.6% draw rate.

What is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Polerio Defense, Bogoljubow Variation win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Polerio Defense, Bogoljubow Variation has a 50.0% (90% CI: 49.6%-50.5%) win rate for white, based on 31K Lichess games. Average game length is 27 moves with a 2.1% draw rate.

What is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Polerio Defense, Bogoljubow Variation win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Polerio Defense, Bogoljubow Variation has a 51.0% (90% CI: 50.6%-51.3%) win rate for white, based on 61K Lichess games. Average game length is 29 moves with a 2.4% draw rate.

What is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Polerio Defense, Bogoljubow Variation win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Polerio Defense, Bogoljubow Variation has a 50.9% (90% CI: 50.6%-51.1%) win rate for white, based on 88K Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 3.0% draw rate.

What is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Polerio Defense, Bogoljubow Variation win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Polerio Defense, Bogoljubow Variation has a 50.7% (90% CI: 50.4%-51.0%) win rate for white, based on 83K Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 3.4% draw rate.

What is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Polerio Defense, Bogoljubow Variation win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Polerio Defense, Bogoljubow Variation has a 51.3% (90% CI: 50.9%-51.6%) win rate for white, based on 49K Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 3.6% draw rate.

What is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Polerio Defense, Bogoljubow Variation win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Polerio Defense, Bogoljubow Variation has a 51.9% (90% CI: 51.3%-52.5%) win rate for white, based on 18K Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 4.0% draw rate.

What is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Polerio Defense, Bogoljubow Variation win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Polerio Defense, Bogoljubow Variation has a 54.8% (90% CI: 52.8%-56.8%) win rate for white, based on 1.7K Lichess games. Average game length is 41 moves with a 6.0% draw rate.

What is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Polerio Defense, Bogoljubow Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Polerio Defense, Bogoljubow Variation has a 50.2% (90% CI: 50.0%-50.5%) win rate for white (110K Lichess games). Draw rate is 2.1%.

What is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Polerio Defense, Bogoljubow Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Polerio Defense, Bogoljubow Variation has a 51.3% (90% CI: 51.1%-51.5%) win rate for white (177K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.3%.

What is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Polerio Defense, Bogoljubow Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Polerio Defense, Bogoljubow Variation has a 50.7% (90% CI: 50.3%-51.0%) win rate for white (55K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.8%.

What is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Polerio Defense, Bogoljubow Variation win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Polerio Defense, Bogoljubow Variation has a 51.6% (90% CI: 50.0%-53.3%) win rate for white (2.5K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.6%.

Is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Polerio Defense, Bogoljubow Variation a good opening?

The Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Polerio Defense, Bogoljubow Variation is statistically favors white with a 50.9% (90% CI: 50.7%-51.0%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2500+ Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.