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Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Polerio Defense, Bogoljubov Variation

17K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Playable
White Expected Score51.9%Range (90% confident): 51.3% – 52.6%Based on 17K games
0%51.9%100%
Range (90% confident): 51.3% – 52.6%
Outcome Distribution
50.4%3.0%46.6%
Win
Draw
Loss
No position data
Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Polerio Defense, Bogoljubov Variation
n=17K
Avg Length32 moves
Sharpness97%
Draw Rate3.0%

What is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Polerio Defense, Bogoljubov Variation expected score for White?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Polerio Defense, Bogoljubov Variation has a 51.9% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 51.3% and 52.6%), based on 17K Lichess games.

White Win% by Rating

Stable across ratings (~49%)

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 49.3% win rate (99 games)
  • 1000-1199: 48.0% win rate (497 games)
  • 1200-1399: 51.1% win rate (1,662 games)
  • 1400-1599: 49.4% win rate (3,079 games)
  • 1600-1799: 50.5% win rate (4,516 games)
  • 1800-1999: 50.7% win rate (4,290 games)
  • 2000-2199: 50.1% win rate (2,335 games)
  • 2200-2499: 53.6% win rate (828 games)
  • 2500+: 51.1% win rate (66 games)

White Win% by Time Control

Best in Blitz (51%), worst in UltraBullet (43%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 42.9% win rate (2 games)
  • Bullet: 50.1% win rate (5,346 games)
  • Blitz: 51.0% win rate (9,069 games)
  • Rapid: 49.3% win rate (2,819 games)
  • Classical: 49.8% win rate (136 games)

White% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999——
1000-1199—
1200-1399—
1400-1599
1600-1799—
1800-1999—
2000-2199
2200-2499—
2500+———

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 54.0% expected score (73 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 40.7% expected score (20 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 36.7% expected score (6 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 50.6% expected score (238 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 49.5% expected score (205 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 40.8% expected score (53 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 51.2% expected score (672 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 52.6% expected score (805 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 54.4% expected score (183 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 50.6% expected score (1,066 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 50.7% expected score (1,511 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 49.8% expected score (480 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 47.8% expected score (21 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 50.3% expected score (1,165 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 53.0% expected score (2,451 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 51.8% expected score (862 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 53.8% expected score (38 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 51.2% expected score (1,032 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 53.2% expected score (2,428 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 51.4% expected score (764 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 56.0% expected score (66 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 50.8% expected score (697 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 52.0% expected score (1,260 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 52.9% expected score (372 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 27.0% expected score (5 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 54.1% expected score (380 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 58.9% expected score (346 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 51.5% expected score (99 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (3 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 56.1% expected score (23 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 54.5% expected score (43 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Italian Game
55.0%
Variations (5)
Italian Game: Anti-Fried Liver Defense
51.3%
Italian Game: Bird's Attack
47.2%
Italian Game: Blackburne-Kostić Gambit
46.9%
Italian Game: Blackburne-Kosti�� Gambit
44.3%
Italian Game: Classical Variation
51.6%

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Polerio Defense, Bogoljubov Variation win rate?

The Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Polerio Defense, Bogoljubov Variation has a 50.4% (90% CI: 49.8%-51.1%) win rate for white, based on 17K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Polerio Defense, Bogoljubov Variation perform best?

The Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Polerio Defense, Bogoljubov Variation performs best at 2200-2499 Elo with a 53.6% win rate for white (828 games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Polerio Defense, Bogoljubov Variation better in blitz or rapid?

Blitz (51.0%) outperforms Classical (49.8%) by 1.2%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Polerio Defense, Bogoljubov Variation?

The Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Polerio Defense, Bogoljubov Variation has a sharpness score of 97.0 (very decisive), meaning 97.0% of games end decisively. Average game length is 32 moves.

What is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Polerio Defense, Bogoljubov Variation win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Polerio Defense, Bogoljubov Variation has a 48.0% (90% CI: 44.4%-51.7%) win rate for white, based on 497 Lichess games. Average game length is 25 moves with a 1.9% draw rate.

What is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Polerio Defense, Bogoljubov Variation win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Polerio Defense, Bogoljubov Variation has a 51.1% (90% CI: 49.1%-53.1%) win rate for white, based on 1.7K Lichess games. Average game length is 27 moves with a 2.3% draw rate.

What is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Polerio Defense, Bogoljubov Variation win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Polerio Defense, Bogoljubov Variation has a 49.4% (90% CI: 47.9%-50.9%) win rate for white, based on 3.1K Lichess games. Average game length is 29 moves with a 2.2% draw rate.

What is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Polerio Defense, Bogoljubov Variation win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Polerio Defense, Bogoljubov Variation has a 50.5% (90% CI: 49.3%-51.7%) win rate for white, based on 4.5K Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 3.1% draw rate.

What is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Polerio Defense, Bogoljubov Variation win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Polerio Defense, Bogoljubov Variation has a 50.7% (90% CI: 49.4%-51.9%) win rate for white, based on 4.3K Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 3.4% draw rate.

What is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Polerio Defense, Bogoljubov Variation win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Polerio Defense, Bogoljubov Variation has a 50.1% (90% CI: 48.4%-51.8%) win rate for white, based on 2.3K Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 3.3% draw rate.

What is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Polerio Defense, Bogoljubov Variation win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Polerio Defense, Bogoljubov Variation has a 53.6% (90% CI: 50.7%-56.4%) win rate for white, based on 828 Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 4.4% draw rate.

What is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Polerio Defense, Bogoljubov Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Polerio Defense, Bogoljubov Variation has a 50.1% (90% CI: 48.9%-51.2%) win rate for white (5.3K Lichess games). Draw rate is 1.9%.

What is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Polerio Defense, Bogoljubov Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Polerio Defense, Bogoljubov Variation has a 51.0% (90% CI: 50.1%-51.8%) win rate for white (9.1K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.2%.

What is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Polerio Defense, Bogoljubov Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Polerio Defense, Bogoljubov Variation has a 49.3% (90% CI: 47.8%-50.9%) win rate for white (2.8K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.1%.

What is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Polerio Defense, Bogoljubov Variation win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Polerio Defense, Bogoljubov Variation has a 49.8% (90% CI: 42.8%-56.8%) win rate for white (136 Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.7%.

Is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Polerio Defense, Bogoljubov Variation a good opening?

The Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Polerio Defense, Bogoljubov Variation is statistically balanced with a 50.4% (90% CI: 49.8%-51.1%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2200-2499 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.