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Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Paoli Variation

1.2K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Playable
White Expected Score53.0%Range (90% confident): 50.6% – 55.4%Based on 1.2K games
0%53.0%100%
Range (90% confident): 50.6% – 55.4%
Outcome Distribution
51.5%2.9%45.6%
Win
Draw
Loss
9.Bd3
Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Paoli Variation
Analyzen=1.2K
Avg Length35 moves
Sharpness97%
Draw Rate2.9%

What is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Paoli Variation expected score for White?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Paoli Variation has a 53.0% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 50.6% and 55.4%), based on 1.2K Lichess games.

White Win% by Rating

Improves with rating: 20% → 55%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 20.0% win rate (1 games)
  • 1000-1199: 42.9% win rate (9 games)
  • 1200-1399: 31.0% win rate (13 games)
  • 1400-1599: 60.7% win rate (57 games)
  • 1600-1799: 50.5% win rate (148 games)
  • 1800-1999: 48.8% win rate (348 games)
  • 2000-2199: 51.9% win rate (354 games)
  • 2200-2499: 54.0% win rate (227 games)
  • 2500+: 55.1% win rate (23 games)

White Win% by Time Control

Best in Rapid (57%), worst in Blitz (50%)

Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • Bullet: 51.9% win rate (333 games)
  • Blitz: 50.2% win rate (708 games)
  • Rapid: 56.6% win rate (132 games)
  • Classical: 52.9% win rate (7 games)

White% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999————
1000-1199———
1200-1399——
1400-1599——
1600-1799—
1800-1999—
2000-2199—
2200-2499—
2500+———

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 50.0% expected score (4 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 42.4% expected score (5 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 27.0% expected score (5 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 50.0% expected score (6 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 21.5% expected score (2 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 46.7% expected score (28 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 74.6% expected score (25 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 68.2% expected score (4 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 57.4% expected score (46 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 50.7% expected score (75 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (25 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 55.4% expected score (72 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 45.2% expected score (235 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 65.2% expected score (38 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 61.2% expected score (3 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 52.9% expected score (85 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 52.9% expected score (225 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 59.0% expected score (43 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 54.7% expected score (74 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 56.0% expected score (133 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 64.7% expected score (19 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 52.5% expected score (19 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 68.2% expected score (4 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Italian Game
55.0%
Variations (5)
Italian Game: Anti-Fried Liver Defense
51.3%
Italian Game: Bird's Attack
47.2%
Italian Game: Blackburne-Kostić Gambit
46.9%
Italian Game: Blackburne-Kosti�� Gambit
44.3%
Italian Game: Classical Variation
51.6%
Analyze Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Paoli Variation PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Paoli Variation win rate?

The Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Paoli Variation has a 51.5% (90% CI: 49.1%-53.9%) win rate for white, based on 1.2K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Paoli Variation perform best?

The Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Paoli Variation performs best at 1400-1599 Elo with a 60.7% win rate for white (57 games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Paoli Variation better in blitz or rapid?

Rapid (56.6%) outperforms Blitz (50.2%) by 6.4%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Paoli Variation?

The Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Paoli Variation has a sharpness score of 97.1 (very decisive), meaning 97.1% of games end decisively. Average game length is 35 moves.

What is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Paoli Variation win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Paoli Variation has a 50.5% (90% CI: 43.8%-57.2%) win rate for white, based on 148 Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 4.3% draw rate.

What is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Paoli Variation win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Paoli Variation has a 48.8% (90% CI: 44.4%-53.2%) win rate for white, based on 348 Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 1.9% draw rate.

What is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Paoli Variation win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Paoli Variation has a 51.9% (90% CI: 47.5%-56.2%) win rate for white, based on 354 Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 3.2% draw rate.

What is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Paoli Variation win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Paoli Variation has a 54.0% (90% CI: 48.6%-59.4%) win rate for white, based on 227 Lichess games. Average game length is 39 moves with a 5.0% draw rate.

What is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Paoli Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Paoli Variation has a 51.9% (90% CI: 47.4%-56.3%) win rate for white (333 Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.1%.

What is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Paoli Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Paoli Variation has a 50.2% (90% CI: 47.2%-53.3%) win rate for white (708 Lichess games). Draw rate is 2.5%.

What is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Paoli Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Paoli Variation has a 56.6% (90% CI: 49.5%-63.5%) win rate for white (132 Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.6%.

Is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Paoli Variation a good opening?

The Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Paoli Variation is statistically balanced with a 51.5% (90% CI: 49.1%-53.9%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 1400-1599 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.