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Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Open Variation

557K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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White Expected Score58.3%Range (90% confident): 58.2% – 58.4%Based on 557K games
0%58.3%100%
Range (90% confident): 58.2% – 58.4%
Outcome Distribution
56.8%3.0%40.2%
Win
Draw
Loss
4.d4
Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Open Variation
Analyzen=557K
Avg Length28 moves
Sharpness97%
Draw Rate3.0%

What is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Open Variation expected score for White?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Open Variation has a 58.3% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 58.2% and 58.4%), based on 557K Lichess games.

White Win% by Rating

Improves with rating: 54% → 56%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 53.5% win rate (53,672 games)
  • 1000-1199: 55.9% win rate (79,221 games)
  • 1200-1399: 57.1% win rate (102,002 games)
  • 1400-1599: 58.0% win rate (107,412 games)
  • 1600-1799: 57.7% win rate (96,560 games)
  • 1800-1999: 56.6% win rate (72,854 games)
  • 2000-2199: 56.7% win rate (34,060 games)
  • 2200-2499: 57.1% win rate (9,709 games)
  • 2500+: 55.8% win rate (1,299 games)

White Win% by Time Control

Best in Classical (60%), worst in UltraBullet (54%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 54.0% win rate (1,193 games)
  • Bullet: 56.8% win rate (134,401 games)
  • Blitz: 56.8% win rate (272,170 games)
  • Rapid: 56.6% win rate (143,676 games)
  • Classical: 60.0% win rate (5,349 games)

White% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+——

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 52.1% expected score (71 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 55.1% expected score (12,130 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 55.6% expected score (26,102 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 54.1% expected score (15,272 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 54.6% expected score (97 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 49.8% expected score (258 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 58.5% expected score (17,243 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 57.1% expected score (38,081 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 56.7% expected score (23,192 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 57.3% expected score (447 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 51.8% expected score (369 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 58.7% expected score (22,217 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 58.6% expected score (49,079 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 58.1% expected score (29,284 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 58.3% expected score (1,053 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 60.6% expected score (282 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 59.1% expected score (22,994 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 59.4% expected score (53,721 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 59.7% expected score (28,848 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 61.8% expected score (1,567 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 57.6% expected score (137 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 58.4% expected score (22,584 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 59.2% expected score (48,710 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 59.9% expected score (23,754 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 65.2% expected score (1,375 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (55 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 56.9% expected score (17,951 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 58.4% expected score (37,512 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 59.6% expected score (16,700 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 64.8% expected score (636 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 62.9% expected score (14 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 56.7% expected score (12,037 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 58.8% expected score (15,970 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 62.6% expected score (5,874 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 70.5% expected score (165 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 79.5% expected score (7 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 57.4% expected score (6,041 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 62.4% expected score (2,905 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 64.8% expected score (747 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 69.1% expected score (9 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 58.1% expected score (1,204 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 69.7% expected score (90 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 57.7% expected score (5 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Italian Game
55.0%
Variations (5)
Italian Game: Anti-Fried Liver Defense
51.3%
Italian Game: Bird's Attack
47.2%
Italian Game: Blackburne-Kostić Gambit
46.9%
Italian Game: Blackburne-Kosti�� Gambit
44.3%
Italian Game: Classical Variation
51.6%
Analyze Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Open Variation PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Open Variation win rate?

The Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Open Variation has a 56.8% (90% CI: 56.7%-56.9%) win rate for white, based on 557K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Open Variation perform best?

The Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Open Variation performs best at 1400-1599 Elo with a 58.0% win rate for white (107K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Open Variation better in blitz or rapid?

Classical (60.0%) outperforms UltraBullet (54.0%) by 6.0%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Open Variation?

The Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Open Variation has a sharpness score of 97.0 (very decisive), meaning 97.0% of games end decisively. Average game length is 28 moves.

What is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Open Variation win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Open Variation has a 53.5% (90% CI: 53.1%-53.9%) win rate for white, based on 54K Lichess games. Average game length is 24 moves with a 3.1% draw rate.

What is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Open Variation win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Open Variation has a 55.9% (90% CI: 55.6%-56.1%) win rate for white, based on 79K Lichess games. Average game length is 25 moves with a 2.7% draw rate.

What is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Open Variation win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Open Variation has a 57.1% (90% CI: 56.9%-57.4%) win rate for white, based on 102K Lichess games. Average game length is 27 moves with a 2.6% draw rate.

What is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Open Variation win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Open Variation has a 58.0% (90% CI: 57.8%-58.3%) win rate for white, based on 107K Lichess games. Average game length is 28 moves with a 2.7% draw rate.

What is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Open Variation win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Open Variation has a 57.7% (90% CI: 57.5%-58.0%) win rate for white, based on 97K Lichess games. Average game length is 29 moves with a 3.0% draw rate.

What is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Open Variation win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Open Variation has a 56.6% (90% CI: 56.3%-56.9%) win rate for white, based on 73K Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 3.4% draw rate.

What is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Open Variation win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Open Variation has a 56.7% (90% CI: 56.2%-57.1%) win rate for white, based on 34K Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 4.1% draw rate.

What is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Open Variation win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Open Variation has a 57.1% (90% CI: 56.3%-57.9%) win rate for white, based on 9.7K Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 4.8% draw rate.

What is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Open Variation win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Open Variation has a 55.8% (90% CI: 53.5%-58.0%) win rate for white, based on 1.3K Lichess games. Average game length is 38 moves with a 6.3% draw rate.

What is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Open Variation win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet games, the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Open Variation has a 54.0% (90% CI: 51.6%-56.3%) win rate for white (1.2K Lichess games). Draw rate is 0.9%.

What is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Open Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Open Variation has a 56.8% (90% CI: 56.6%-57.0%) win rate for white (134K Lichess games). Draw rate is 2.1%.

What is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Open Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Open Variation has a 56.8% (90% CI: 56.6%-57.0%) win rate for white (272K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.1%.

What is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Open Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Open Variation has a 56.6% (90% CI: 56.4%-56.8%) win rate for white (144K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.6%.

What is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Open Variation win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Open Variation has a 60.0% (90% CI: 58.9%-61.1%) win rate for white (5.3K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.1%.

Is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Open Variation a good opening?

The Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Open Variation is statistically favors white with a 56.8% (90% CI: 56.7%-56.9%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 1400-1599 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.