2.7K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
At all ratings, the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Fritz, Gruber Variation has a 55.0% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 53.4% and 56.6%), based on 2.7K Lichess games.
Improves with rating: 43% → 55%
Best in Classical (66%), worst in Bullet (49%)
Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | — | — | — | — |
| 1000-1199 | — | — | — | ||
| 1200-1399 | — | — | — | ||
| 1400-1599 | — | — | |||
| 1600-1799 | — | ||||
| 1800-1999 | — | ||||
| 2000-2199 | — | ||||
| 2200-2499 | — | — | |||
| 2500+ | — | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
The Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Fritz, Gruber Variation has a 52.9% (90% CI: 51.3%-54.5%) win rate for white, based on 2.7K rated games from Lichess.
The Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Fritz, Gruber Variation performs best at 2200-2499 Elo with a 53.2% win rate for white (954 games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.
Blitz (54.2%) outperforms Bullet (49.4%) by 4.8%. Choose your time control wisely.
The Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Fritz, Gruber Variation has a sharpness score of 95.8 (very decisive), meaning 95.8% of games end decisively. Average game length is 33 moves.
At 1600-1799 Elo, the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Fritz, Gruber Variation has a 52.2% (90% CI: 45.4%-59.0%) win rate for white, based on 143 Lichess games. Average game length is 28 moves with a 5.2% draw rate.
At 1800-1999 Elo, the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Fritz, Gruber Variation has a 50.5% (90% CI: 46.5%-54.6%) win rate for white, based on 409 Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 5.0% draw rate.
At 2000-2199 Elo, the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Fritz, Gruber Variation has a 53.0% (90% CI: 50.4%-55.5%) win rate for white, based on 1.0K Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 2.8% draw rate.
At 2200-2499 Elo, the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Fritz, Gruber Variation has a 53.2% (90% CI: 50.6%-55.9%) win rate for white, based on 954 Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 5.5% draw rate.
At 2500+ Elo, the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Fritz, Gruber Variation has a 54.8% (90% CI: 47.3%-62.2%) win rate for white, based on 118 Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 5.4% draw rate.
In Bullet games, the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Fritz, Gruber Variation has a 49.4% (90% CI: 46.4%-52.4%) win rate for white (747 Lichess games). Draw rate is 2.5%.
In Blitz games, the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Fritz, Gruber Variation has a 54.2% (90% CI: 52.2%-56.1%) win rate for white (1.8K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.7%.
In Rapid games, the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Fritz, Gruber Variation has a 53.1% (90% CI: 46.5%-59.8%) win rate for white (150 Lichess games). Draw rate is 6.9%.
The Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Fritz, Gruber Variation is statistically favors white with a 52.9% (90% CI: 51.3%-54.5%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2200-2499 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.