33K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
At all ratings, the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Colman Variation has a 49.0% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 48.6% and 49.5%), based on 33K Lichess games.
Improves with rating: 45% → 48%
Best in Blitz (49%), worst in UltraBullet (14%)
Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | — | |||
| 1000-1199 | |||||
| 1200-1399 | — | — | |||
| 1400-1599 | — | ||||
| 1600-1799 | — | ||||
| 1800-1999 | |||||
| 2000-2199 | — | ||||
| 2200-2499 | — | ||||
| 2500+ | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
The Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Colman Variation has a 47.3% (90% CI: 46.9%-47.8%) win rate for white, based on 33K rated games from Lichess.
The Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Colman Variation performs best at 2000-2199 Elo with a 48.9% win rate for white (9.4K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.
Blitz (48.8%) outperforms Classical (41.9%) by 6.9%. Choose your time control wisely.
The Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Colman Variation has a sharpness score of 96.6 (very decisive), meaning 96.6% of games end decisively. Average game length is 32 moves.
At 1000-1199 Elo, the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Colman Variation has a 46.8% (90% CI: 43.0%-50.6%) win rate for white, based on 472 Lichess games. Average game length is 25 moves with a 2.0% draw rate.
At 1200-1399 Elo, the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Colman Variation has a 44.5% (90% CI: 42.2%-46.9%) win rate for white, based on 1.2K Lichess games. Average game length is 26 moves with a 2.6% draw rate.
At 1400-1599 Elo, the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Colman Variation has a 47.8% (90% CI: 46.1%-49.4%) win rate for white, based on 2.5K Lichess games. Average game length is 27 moves with a 1.9% draw rate.
At 1600-1799 Elo, the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Colman Variation has a 45.8% (90% CI: 44.6%-46.9%) win rate for white, based on 5.0K Lichess games. Average game length is 30 moves with a 2.3% draw rate.
At 1800-1999 Elo, the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Colman Variation has a 46.0% (90% CI: 45.2%-46.9%) win rate for white, based on 9.3K Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 3.5% draw rate.
At 2000-2199 Elo, the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Colman Variation has a 48.9% (90% CI: 48.1%-49.8%) win rate for white, based on 9.4K Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 3.4% draw rate.
At 2200-2499 Elo, the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Colman Variation has a 48.8% (90% CI: 47.6%-50.0%) win rate for white, based on 4.8K Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 4.1% draw rate.
At 2500+ Elo, the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Colman Variation has a 48.0% (90% CI: 44.6%-51.5%) win rate for white, based on 564 Lichess games. Average game length is 40 moves with a 15.1% draw rate.
In Bullet games, the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Colman Variation has a 45.8% (90% CI: 45.0%-46.5%) win rate for white (12K Lichess games). Draw rate is 2.8%.
In Blitz games, the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Colman Variation has a 48.8% (90% CI: 48.2%-49.5%) win rate for white (17K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.5%.
In Rapid games, the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Colman Variation has a 45.7% (90% CI: 44.4%-47.0%) win rate for white (4.0K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.5%.
In Classical games, the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Colman Variation has a 41.9% (90% CI: 36.3%-47.7%) win rate for white (200 Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.7%.
The Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Colman Variation is statistically balanced with a 47.3% (90% CI: 46.9%-47.8%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2000-2199 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.