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Italian Game: Scotch Gambit, Walbrodt-Baird Gambit

204K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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White Expected Score56.8%Range (90% confident): 56.6% – 57.0%Based on 204K games
0%56.8%100%
Range (90% confident): 56.6% – 57.0%
Outcome Distribution
55.2%3.1%41.7%
Win
Draw
Loss
6.O-O
Italian Game: Scotch Gambit, Walbrodt-Baird Gambit
Analyzen=204K
Avg Length29 moves
Sharpness97%
Draw Rate3.1%

What is the Italian Game: Scotch Gambit, Walbrodt-Baird Gambit expected score for White?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Italian Game: Scotch Gambit, Walbrodt-Baird Gambit has a 56.8% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 56.6% and 57.0%), based on 204K Lichess games.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Gambit BreakpointWhite

Peak: +14.7% · Breakpoint: Never

White Win% by Rating

Stable across ratings (~53%)

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 53.0% win rate (4,771 games)
  • 1000-1199: 56.0% win rate (13,777 games)
  • 1200-1399: 56.7% win rate (28,996 games)
  • 1400-1599: 56.4% win rate (42,870 games)
  • 1600-1799: 56.2% win rate (43,112 games)
  • 1800-1999: 54.6% win rate (35,445 games)
  • 2000-2199: 52.0% win rate (22,437 games)
  • 2200-2499: 51.7% win rate (11,081 games)
  • 2500+: 53.6% win rate (1,776 games)

White Win% by Time Control

Similar across time controls (~56%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 53.7% win rate (87 games)
  • Bullet: 55.7% win rate (63,274 games)
  • Blitz: 55.0% win rate (105,050 games)
  • Rapid: 54.8% win rate (34,334 games)
  • Classical: 55.9% win rate (1,520 games)

White% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499—
2500+——

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 42.4% expected score (5 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 54.7% expected score (1,874 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 54.4% expected score (1,995 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 52.3% expected score (892 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 57.7% expected score (5 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 41.9% expected score (17 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 57.7% expected score (4,901 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 57.3% expected score (6,761 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 54.7% expected score (2,071 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 55.3% expected score (27 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 48.5% expected score (31 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 58.9% expected score (9,080 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 57.5% expected score (15,063 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 56.8% expected score (4,724 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 56.1% expected score (98 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 61.5% expected score (16 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 58.4% expected score (11,384 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 57.7% expected score (22,964 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 56.1% expected score (8,164 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 60.4% expected score (342 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (11 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 57.4% expected score (10,964 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 57.5% expected score (22,936 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 58.4% expected score (8,716 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 57.7% expected score (485 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 38.9% expected score (3 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 56.2% expected score (9,733 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 56.2% expected score (19,166 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 56.7% expected score (6,147 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 54.8% expected score (396 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 86.4% expected score (4 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 54.6% expected score (7,744 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 53.6% expected score (11,737 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 56.1% expected score (2,801 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 63.1% expected score (151 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 54.0% expected score (6,110 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 55.0% expected score (4,144 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 56.4% expected score (811 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 70.0% expected score (16 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 56.6% expected score (1,484 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 60.2% expected score (284 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 60.5% expected score (8 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Italian Game
55.0%
Variations (5)
Italian Game: Anti-Fried Liver Defense
51.3%
Italian Game: Bird's Attack
47.2%
Italian Game: Blackburne-Kostić Gambit
46.9%
Italian Game: Blackburne-Kosti�� Gambit
44.3%
Italian Game: Classical Variation
51.6%
Analyze Italian Game: Scotch Gambit, Walbrodt-Baird Gambit PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Italian Game: Scotch Gambit, Walbrodt-Baird Gambit win rate?

The Italian Game: Scotch Gambit, Walbrodt-Baird Gambit has a 55.2% (90% CI: 55.0%-55.4%) win rate for white, based on 204K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Italian Game: Scotch Gambit, Walbrodt-Baird Gambit perform best?

The Italian Game: Scotch Gambit, Walbrodt-Baird Gambit performs best at 1200-1399 Elo with a 56.7% win rate for white (29K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Italian Game: Scotch Gambit, Walbrodt-Baird Gambit better in blitz or rapid?

Bullet (55.7%) outperforms UltraBullet (53.7%) by 2.0%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Italian Game: Scotch Gambit, Walbrodt-Baird Gambit?

The Italian Game: Scotch Gambit, Walbrodt-Baird Gambit has a sharpness score of 96.9 (very decisive), meaning 96.9% of games end decisively. Average game length is 29 moves.

What is the Italian Game: Scotch Gambit, Walbrodt-Baird Gambit win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the Italian Game: Scotch Gambit, Walbrodt-Baird Gambit has a 53.0% (90% CI: 51.8%-54.2%) win rate for white, based on 4.8K Lichess games. Average game length is 24 moves with a 2.2% draw rate.

What is the Italian Game: Scotch Gambit, Walbrodt-Baird Gambit win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Italian Game: Scotch Gambit, Walbrodt-Baird Gambit has a 56.0% (90% CI: 55.3%-56.7%) win rate for white, based on 14K Lichess games. Average game length is 25 moves with a 2.0% draw rate.

What is the Italian Game: Scotch Gambit, Walbrodt-Baird Gambit win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Italian Game: Scotch Gambit, Walbrodt-Baird Gambit has a 56.7% (90% CI: 56.2%-57.2%) win rate for white, based on 29K Lichess games. Average game length is 26 moves with a 2.3% draw rate.

What is the Italian Game: Scotch Gambit, Walbrodt-Baird Gambit win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Italian Game: Scotch Gambit, Walbrodt-Baird Gambit has a 56.4% (90% CI: 56.0%-56.8%) win rate for white, based on 43K Lichess games. Average game length is 28 moves with a 2.5% draw rate.

What is the Italian Game: Scotch Gambit, Walbrodt-Baird Gambit win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Italian Game: Scotch Gambit, Walbrodt-Baird Gambit has a 56.2% (90% CI: 55.8%-56.6%) win rate for white, based on 43K Lichess games. Average game length is 29 moves with a 2.9% draw rate.

What is the Italian Game: Scotch Gambit, Walbrodt-Baird Gambit win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Italian Game: Scotch Gambit, Walbrodt-Baird Gambit has a 54.6% (90% CI: 54.2%-55.0%) win rate for white, based on 35K Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 3.3% draw rate.

What is the Italian Game: Scotch Gambit, Walbrodt-Baird Gambit win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Italian Game: Scotch Gambit, Walbrodt-Baird Gambit has a 52.0% (90% CI: 51.5%-52.6%) win rate for white, based on 22K Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 4.5% draw rate.

What is the Italian Game: Scotch Gambit, Walbrodt-Baird Gambit win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Italian Game: Scotch Gambit, Walbrodt-Baird Gambit has a 51.7% (90% CI: 51.0%-52.5%) win rate for white, based on 11K Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 5.6% draw rate.

What is the Italian Game: Scotch Gambit, Walbrodt-Baird Gambit win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Italian Game: Scotch Gambit, Walbrodt-Baird Gambit has a 53.6% (90% CI: 51.6%-55.5%) win rate for white, based on 1.8K Lichess games. Average game length is 39 moves with a 7.3% draw rate.

What is the Italian Game: Scotch Gambit, Walbrodt-Baird Gambit win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Italian Game: Scotch Gambit, Walbrodt-Baird Gambit has a 55.7% (90% CI: 55.4%-56.1%) win rate for white (63K Lichess games). Draw rate is 2.2%.

What is the Italian Game: Scotch Gambit, Walbrodt-Baird Gambit win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Italian Game: Scotch Gambit, Walbrodt-Baird Gambit has a 55.0% (90% CI: 54.7%-55.3%) win rate for white (105K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.4%.

What is the Italian Game: Scotch Gambit, Walbrodt-Baird Gambit win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Italian Game: Scotch Gambit, Walbrodt-Baird Gambit has a 54.8% (90% CI: 54.4%-55.3%) win rate for white (34K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.7%.

What is the Italian Game: Scotch Gambit, Walbrodt-Baird Gambit win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the Italian Game: Scotch Gambit, Walbrodt-Baird Gambit has a 55.9% (90% CI: 53.8%-58.0%) win rate for white (1.5K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.4%.

Is the Italian Game: Scotch Gambit, Walbrodt-Baird Gambit a good opening?

The Italian Game: Scotch Gambit, Walbrodt-Baird Gambit is statistically favors white with a 55.2% (90% CI: 55.0%-55.4%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 1200-1399 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.