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Italian Game: Scotch Gambit, Nakhmanson Gambit

41K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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White Expected Score54.8%Range (90% confident): 54.3% – 55.2%Based on 41K games
0%54.8%100%
Range (90% confident): 54.3% – 55.2%
Outcome Distribution
52.3%5.0%42.8%
Win
Draw
Loss
6.Nc3
Italian Game: Scotch Gambit, Nakhmanson Gambit
Analyzen=41K
Avg Length29 moves
Sharpness95%
Draw Rate5.0%

What is the Italian Game: Scotch Gambit, Nakhmanson Gambit expected score for White?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Italian Game: Scotch Gambit, Nakhmanson Gambit has a 54.8% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 54.3% and 55.2%), based on 41K Lichess games.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Gambit BreakpointWhite

Peak: +20.1% · Breakpoint: Never

Traps & Chaos

Complexity: 93.9 · Trap factor: +24.8 · n=41K

White Win% by Rating

Declines with rating: 56% → 53%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 56.0% win rate (533 games)
  • 1000-1199: 60.5% win rate (1,225 games)
  • 1200-1399: 60.8% win rate (1,581 games)
  • 1400-1599: 57.4% win rate (1,643 games)
  • 1600-1799: 54.1% win rate (2,865 games)
  • 1800-1999: 52.1% win rate (7,186 games)
  • 2000-2199: 50.1% win rate (12,660 games)
  • 2200-2499: 51.1% win rate (11,284 games)
  • 2500+: 52.9% win rate (2,166 games)

White Win% by Time Control

Best in UltraBullet (65%), worst in Blitz (52%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 64.7% win rate (7 games)
  • Bullet: 52.8% win rate (12,572 games)
  • Blitz: 51.9% win rate (23,474 games)
  • Rapid: 52.5% win rate (4,896 games)
  • Classical: 52.4% win rate (194 games)

White% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999——
1000-1199—
1200-1399—
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+——

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 58.6% expected score (168 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 57.3% expected score (266 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 52.5% expected score (99 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 62.9% expected score (271 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 63.5% expected score (630 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 57.0% expected score (320 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 68.2% expected score (4 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 57.8% expected score (369 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 60.6% expected score (656 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 66.3% expected score (549 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 79.5% expected score (7 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 54.6% expected score (435 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 60.1% expected score (746 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 59.3% expected score (431 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 59.5% expected score (30 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 78.6% expected score (2 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 55.0% expected score (875 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 55.4% expected score (1,462 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 56.7% expected score (493 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 54.4% expected score (33 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 55.4% expected score (1,792 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 53.9% expected score (4,553 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 51.8% expected score (801 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 62.4% expected score (39 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 52.0% expected score (2,503 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 53.5% expected score (8,787 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 50.8% expected score (1,309 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 56.5% expected score (60 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 54.2% expected score (4,367 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 54.6% expected score (6,027 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 54.0% expected score (867 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 36.7% expected score (21 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 56.4% expected score (1,792 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 54.2% expected score (347 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 51.8% expected score (27 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Italian Game
55.0%
Variations (5)
Italian Game: Anti-Fried Liver Defense
51.3%
Italian Game: Bird's Attack
47.2%
Italian Game: Blackburne-Kostić Gambit
46.9%
Italian Game: Blackburne-Kosti�� Gambit
44.3%
Italian Game: Classical Variation
51.6%
Analyze Italian Game: Scotch Gambit, Nakhmanson Gambit PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Italian Game: Scotch Gambit, Nakhmanson Gambit win rate?

The Italian Game: Scotch Gambit, Nakhmanson Gambit has a 52.3% (90% CI: 51.8%-52.7%) win rate for white, based on 41K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Italian Game: Scotch Gambit, Nakhmanson Gambit perform best?

The Italian Game: Scotch Gambit, Nakhmanson Gambit performs best at 1200-1399 Elo with a 60.8% win rate for white (1.6K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Italian Game: Scotch Gambit, Nakhmanson Gambit better in blitz or rapid?

Bullet (52.8%) outperforms Classical (52.4%) by 0.4%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Italian Game: Scotch Gambit, Nakhmanson Gambit?

The Italian Game: Scotch Gambit, Nakhmanson Gambit has a sharpness score of 95.0 (very decisive), meaning 95.0% of games end decisively. Average game length is 29 moves.

What is the Italian Game: Scotch Gambit, Nakhmanson Gambit win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the Italian Game: Scotch Gambit, Nakhmanson Gambit has a 56.0% (90% CI: 52.5%-59.5%) win rate for white, based on 533 Lichess games. Average game length is 20 moves with a 1.6% draw rate.

What is the Italian Game: Scotch Gambit, Nakhmanson Gambit win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Italian Game: Scotch Gambit, Nakhmanson Gambit has a 60.5% (90% CI: 58.2%-62.7%) win rate for white, based on 1.2K Lichess games. Average game length is 21 moves with a 2.5% draw rate.

What is the Italian Game: Scotch Gambit, Nakhmanson Gambit win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Italian Game: Scotch Gambit, Nakhmanson Gambit has a 60.8% (90% CI: 58.8%-62.8%) win rate for white, based on 1.6K Lichess games. Average game length is 22 moves with a 2.4% draw rate.

What is the Italian Game: Scotch Gambit, Nakhmanson Gambit win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Italian Game: Scotch Gambit, Nakhmanson Gambit has a 57.4% (90% CI: 55.4%-59.4%) win rate for white, based on 1.6K Lichess games. Average game length is 23 moves with a 2.1% draw rate.

What is the Italian Game: Scotch Gambit, Nakhmanson Gambit win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Italian Game: Scotch Gambit, Nakhmanson Gambit has a 54.1% (90% CI: 52.6%-55.6%) win rate for white, based on 2.9K Lichess games. Average game length is 25 moves with a 2.8% draw rate.

What is the Italian Game: Scotch Gambit, Nakhmanson Gambit win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Italian Game: Scotch Gambit, Nakhmanson Gambit has a 52.1% (90% CI: 51.2%-53.1%) win rate for white, based on 7.2K Lichess games. Average game length is 27 moves with a 3.9% draw rate.

What is the Italian Game: Scotch Gambit, Nakhmanson Gambit win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Italian Game: Scotch Gambit, Nakhmanson Gambit has a 50.1% (90% CI: 49.4%-50.8%) win rate for white, based on 13K Lichess games. Average game length is 30 moves with a 5.7% draw rate.

What is the Italian Game: Scotch Gambit, Nakhmanson Gambit win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Italian Game: Scotch Gambit, Nakhmanson Gambit has a 51.1% (90% CI: 50.3%-51.9%) win rate for white, based on 11K Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 6.5% draw rate.

What is the Italian Game: Scotch Gambit, Nakhmanson Gambit win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Italian Game: Scotch Gambit, Nakhmanson Gambit has a 52.9% (90% CI: 51.2%-54.7%) win rate for white, based on 2.2K Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 6.0% draw rate.

What is the Italian Game: Scotch Gambit, Nakhmanson Gambit win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Italian Game: Scotch Gambit, Nakhmanson Gambit has a 52.8% (90% CI: 52.1%-53.6%) win rate for white (13K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.7%.

What is the Italian Game: Scotch Gambit, Nakhmanson Gambit win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Italian Game: Scotch Gambit, Nakhmanson Gambit has a 51.9% (90% CI: 51.4%-52.4%) win rate for white (23K Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.6%.

What is the Italian Game: Scotch Gambit, Nakhmanson Gambit win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Italian Game: Scotch Gambit, Nakhmanson Gambit has a 52.5% (90% CI: 51.3%-53.7%) win rate for white (4.9K Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.1%.

What is the Italian Game: Scotch Gambit, Nakhmanson Gambit win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the Italian Game: Scotch Gambit, Nakhmanson Gambit has a 52.4% (90% CI: 46.6%-58.3%) win rate for white (194 Lichess games). Draw rate is 9.5%.

Is the Italian Game: Scotch Gambit, Nakhmanson Gambit a good opening?

The Italian Game: Scotch Gambit, Nakhmanson Gambit is statistically favors white with a 52.3% (90% CI: 51.8%-52.7%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 1200-1399 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.