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Italian Game: Scotch Gambit, de Riviere Defense

194K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Playable
White Expected Score51.8%Range (90% confident): 51.6% – 52.0%Based on 194K games
0%51.8%100%
Range (90% confident): 51.6% – 52.0%
Outcome Distribution
50.0%3.6%46.4%
Win
Draw
Loss
5...Be7
Italian Game: Scotch Gambit, de Riviere Defense
Analyzen=194K
Avg Length32 moves
Sharpness96%
Draw Rate3.6%

What is the Italian Game: Scotch Gambit, de Riviere Defense expected score for White?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Italian Game: Scotch Gambit, de Riviere Defense has a 51.8% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 51.6% and 52.0%), based on 194K Lichess games.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Gambit BreakpointWhite

Peak: +7.2% · Breakpoint: 0-999

White Win% by Rating

Improves with rating: 43% → 50%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 43.0% win rate (1,155 games)
  • 1000-1199: 47.1% win rate (5,166 games)
  • 1200-1399: 48.7% win rate (15,369 games)
  • 1400-1599: 49.2% win rate (32,198 games)
  • 1600-1799: 49.9% win rate (50,244 games)
  • 1800-1999: 50.6% win rate (51,269 games)
  • 2000-2199: 51.0% win rate (27,487 games)
  • 2200-2499: 51.8% win rate (10,172 games)
  • 2500+: 50.4% win rate (1,314 games)

White Win% by Time Control

Similar across time controls (~51%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 50.5% win rate (49 games)
  • Bullet: 50.7% win rate (51,226 games)
  • Blitz: 49.9% win rate (109,982 games)
  • Rapid: 49.4% win rate (31,888 games)
  • Classical: 50.5% win rate (1,229 games)

White% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999—
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+——

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 45.0% expected score (668 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 44.1% expected score (360 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 38.7% expected score (126 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 73.1% expected score (5 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 48.9% expected score (2,521 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 47.6% expected score (2,129 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 44.7% expected score (505 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 63.4% expected score (6 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 39.8% expected score (18 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 51.0% expected score (5,506 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 49.5% expected score (7,812 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 48.4% expected score (2,000 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 52.9% expected score (33 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 79.7% expected score (12 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 51.8% expected score (8,043 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 50.7% expected score (18,848 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 49.5% expected score (5,125 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 48.9% expected score (170 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 43.3% expected score (6 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 51.9% expected score (10,635 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 51.7% expected score (30,015 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 50.8% expected score (9,179 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 54.1% expected score (409 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 27.0% expected score (5 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 51.5% expected score (9,985 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 52.6% expected score (30,835 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 53.3% expected score (9,974 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 53.7% expected score (470 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 53.1% expected score (7,319 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 53.0% expected score (15,795 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 54.9% expected score (4,244 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 56.2% expected score (128 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 53.8% expected score (5,425 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 54.9% expected score (4,013 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 56.3% expected score (720 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 53.5% expected score (13 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 53.9% expected score (1,124 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 56.6% expected score (175 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 44.0% expected score (15 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Italian Game
55.0%
Variations (5)
Italian Game: Anti-Fried Liver Defense
51.3%
Italian Game: Bird's Attack
47.2%
Italian Game: Blackburne-Kostić Gambit
46.9%
Italian Game: Blackburne-Kosti�� Gambit
44.3%
Italian Game: Classical Variation
51.6%
Analyze Italian Game: Scotch Gambit, de Riviere Defense PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Italian Game: Scotch Gambit, de Riviere Defense win rate?

The Italian Game: Scotch Gambit, de Riviere Defense has a 50.0% (90% CI: 49.8%-50.2%) win rate for white, based on 194K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Italian Game: Scotch Gambit, de Riviere Defense perform best?

The Italian Game: Scotch Gambit, de Riviere Defense performs best at 2200-2499 Elo with a 51.8% win rate for white (10K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Italian Game: Scotch Gambit, de Riviere Defense better in blitz or rapid?

Bullet (50.7%) outperforms Classical (50.5%) by 0.2%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Italian Game: Scotch Gambit, de Riviere Defense?

The Italian Game: Scotch Gambit, de Riviere Defense has a sharpness score of 96.4 (very decisive), meaning 96.4% of games end decisively. Average game length is 32 moves.

What is the Italian Game: Scotch Gambit, de Riviere Defense win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the Italian Game: Scotch Gambit, de Riviere Defense has a 43.0% (90% CI: 40.6%-45.4%) win rate for white, based on 1.2K Lichess games. Average game length is 23 moves with a 1.8% draw rate.

What is the Italian Game: Scotch Gambit, de Riviere Defense win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Italian Game: Scotch Gambit, de Riviere Defense has a 47.1% (90% CI: 46.0%-48.3%) win rate for white, based on 5.2K Lichess games. Average game length is 25 moves with a 1.7% draw rate.

What is the Italian Game: Scotch Gambit, de Riviere Defense win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Italian Game: Scotch Gambit, de Riviere Defense has a 48.7% (90% CI: 48.1%-49.4%) win rate for white, based on 15K Lichess games. Average game length is 28 moves with a 2.2% draw rate.

What is the Italian Game: Scotch Gambit, de Riviere Defense win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Italian Game: Scotch Gambit, de Riviere Defense has a 49.2% (90% CI: 48.8%-49.7%) win rate for white, based on 32K Lichess games. Average game length is 29 moves with a 3.0% draw rate.

What is the Italian Game: Scotch Gambit, de Riviere Defense win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Italian Game: Scotch Gambit, de Riviere Defense has a 49.9% (90% CI: 49.5%-50.3%) win rate for white, based on 50K Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 3.3% draw rate.

What is the Italian Game: Scotch Gambit, de Riviere Defense win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Italian Game: Scotch Gambit, de Riviere Defense has a 50.6% (90% CI: 50.2%-50.9%) win rate for white, based on 51K Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 3.9% draw rate.

What is the Italian Game: Scotch Gambit, de Riviere Defense win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Italian Game: Scotch Gambit, de Riviere Defense has a 51.0% (90% CI: 50.5%-51.5%) win rate for white, based on 27K Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 4.5% draw rate.

What is the Italian Game: Scotch Gambit, de Riviere Defense win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Italian Game: Scotch Gambit, de Riviere Defense has a 51.8% (90% CI: 51.0%-52.6%) win rate for white, based on 10K Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 5.2% draw rate.

What is the Italian Game: Scotch Gambit, de Riviere Defense win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Italian Game: Scotch Gambit, de Riviere Defense has a 50.4% (90% CI: 48.2%-52.7%) win rate for white, based on 1.3K Lichess games. Average game length is 40 moves with a 7.3% draw rate.

What is the Italian Game: Scotch Gambit, de Riviere Defense win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Italian Game: Scotch Gambit, de Riviere Defense has a 50.7% (90% CI: 50.3%-51.0%) win rate for white (51K Lichess games). Draw rate is 2.4%.

What is the Italian Game: Scotch Gambit, de Riviere Defense win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Italian Game: Scotch Gambit, de Riviere Defense has a 49.9% (90% CI: 49.7%-50.2%) win rate for white (110K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.8%.

What is the Italian Game: Scotch Gambit, de Riviere Defense win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Italian Game: Scotch Gambit, de Riviere Defense has a 49.4% (90% CI: 48.9%-49.8%) win rate for white (32K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.7%.

What is the Italian Game: Scotch Gambit, de Riviere Defense win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the Italian Game: Scotch Gambit, de Riviere Defense has a 50.5% (90% CI: 48.2%-52.9%) win rate for white (1.2K Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.9%.

Is the Italian Game: Scotch Gambit, de Riviere Defense a good opening?

The Italian Game: Scotch Gambit, de Riviere Defense is statistically balanced with a 50.0% (90% CI: 49.8%-50.2%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2200-2499 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.