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Italian Game: Giuoco Piano, Therkatz-Herzog Variation

2.3K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Playable
White Expected Score50.5%Range (90% confident): 48.8% – 52.2%Based on 2.3K games
0%50.5%100%
Range (90% confident): 48.8% – 52.2%
Outcome Distribution
46.5%7.9%45.6%
Win
Draw
Loss
14.Nxh7
Italian Game: Giuoco Piano, Therkatz-Herzog Variation
Analyzen=2.3K
Avg Length31 moves
Sharpness92%
Draw Rate7.9%

What is the Italian Game: Giuoco Piano, Therkatz-Herzog Variation expected score for White?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Italian Game: Giuoco Piano, Therkatz-Herzog Variation has a 50.5% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 48.8% and 52.2%), based on 2.3K Lichess games.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Traps & Chaos

Complexity: 90.9 · Trap factor: +53.5 · n=2.3K

White Win% by Rating

Improves with rating: 20% → 47%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 20.0% win rate (1 games)
  • 1000-1199: 71.4% win rate (2 games)
  • 1200-1399: 47.8% win rate (10 games)
  • 1400-1599: 42.2% win rate (40 games)
  • 1600-1799: 45.9% win rate (102 games)
  • 1800-1999: 44.0% win rate (400 games)
  • 2000-2199: 45.4% win rate (857 games)
  • 2200-2499: 49.4% win rate (734 games)
  • 2500+: 46.5% win rate (133 games)

White Win% by Time Control

Best in Bullet (49%), worst in Classical (28%)

Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • Bullet: 48.8% win rate (596 games)
  • Blitz: 46.3% win rate (1,333 games)
  • Rapid: 44.9% win rate (318 games)
  • Classical: 28.4% win rate (32 games)

White% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999————
1000-1199———
1200-1399——
1400-1599—
1600-1799—
1800-1999—
2000-2199—
2200-2499—
2500+——

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 50.0% expected score (5 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 61.2% expected score (3 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 54.8% expected score (9 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 44.9% expected score (18 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 38.0% expected score (11 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 64.3% expected score (2 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 52.1% expected score (23 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 54.7% expected score (52 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 40.9% expected score (26 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 40.9% expected score (75 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 48.8% expected score (245 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 52.1% expected score (72 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 29.0% expected score (8 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 48.4% expected score (147 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 49.8% expected score (564 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 54.3% expected score (127 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 45.1% expected score (19 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 56.8% expected score (241 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 51.6% expected score (421 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 50.7% expected score (70 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 35.7% expected score (2 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 47.6% expected score (99 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 55.3% expected score (27 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 44.1% expected score (7 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Italian Game
55.0%
Variations (5)
Italian Game: Anti-Fried Liver Defense
51.3%
Italian Game: Bird's Attack
47.2%
Italian Game: Blackburne-Kostić Gambit
46.9%
Italian Game: Blackburne-Kosti�� Gambit
44.3%
Italian Game: Classical Variation
51.6%
Analyze Italian Game: Giuoco Piano, Therkatz-Herzog Variation PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Italian Game: Giuoco Piano, Therkatz-Herzog Variation win rate?

The Italian Game: Giuoco Piano, Therkatz-Herzog Variation has a 46.5% (90% CI: 44.8%-48.3%) win rate for white, based on 2.3K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Italian Game: Giuoco Piano, Therkatz-Herzog Variation perform best?

The Italian Game: Giuoco Piano, Therkatz-Herzog Variation performs best at 2200-2499 Elo with a 49.4% win rate for white (734 games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Italian Game: Giuoco Piano, Therkatz-Herzog Variation better in blitz or rapid?

Bullet (48.8%) outperforms Rapid (44.9%) by 3.9%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Italian Game: Giuoco Piano, Therkatz-Herzog Variation?

The Italian Game: Giuoco Piano, Therkatz-Herzog Variation has a sharpness score of 92.1 (decisive), meaning 92.1% of games end decisively. Average game length is 31 moves.

What is the Italian Game: Giuoco Piano, Therkatz-Herzog Variation win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Italian Game: Giuoco Piano, Therkatz-Herzog Variation has a 45.9% (90% CI: 37.9%-54.0%) win rate for white, based on 102 Lichess games. Average game length is 28 moves with a 8.2% draw rate.

What is the Italian Game: Giuoco Piano, Therkatz-Herzog Variation win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Italian Game: Giuoco Piano, Therkatz-Herzog Variation has a 44.0% (90% CI: 39.9%-48.0%) win rate for white, based on 400 Lichess games. Average game length is 29 moves with a 6.8% draw rate.

What is the Italian Game: Giuoco Piano, Therkatz-Herzog Variation win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Italian Game: Giuoco Piano, Therkatz-Herzog Variation has a 45.4% (90% CI: 42.6%-48.2%) win rate for white, based on 857 Lichess games. Average game length is 30 moves with a 9.4% draw rate.

What is the Italian Game: Giuoco Piano, Therkatz-Herzog Variation win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Italian Game: Giuoco Piano, Therkatz-Herzog Variation has a 49.4% (90% CI: 46.4%-52.5%) win rate for white, based on 734 Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 7.4% draw rate.

What is the Italian Game: Giuoco Piano, Therkatz-Herzog Variation win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Italian Game: Giuoco Piano, Therkatz-Herzog Variation has a 46.5% (90% CI: 39.4%-53.5%) win rate for white, based on 133 Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 4.8% draw rate.

What is the Italian Game: Giuoco Piano, Therkatz-Herzog Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Italian Game: Giuoco Piano, Therkatz-Herzog Variation has a 48.8% (90% CI: 45.4%-52.2%) win rate for white (596 Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.3%.

What is the Italian Game: Giuoco Piano, Therkatz-Herzog Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Italian Game: Giuoco Piano, Therkatz-Herzog Variation has a 46.3% (90% CI: 44.1%-48.6%) win rate for white (1.3K Lichess games). Draw rate is 8.1%.

What is the Italian Game: Giuoco Piano, Therkatz-Herzog Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Italian Game: Giuoco Piano, Therkatz-Herzog Variation has a 44.9% (90% CI: 40.4%-49.5%) win rate for white (318 Lichess games). Draw rate is 12.4%.

Is the Italian Game: Giuoco Piano, Therkatz-Herzog Variation a good opening?

The Italian Game: Giuoco Piano, Therkatz-Herzog Variation is statistically balanced with a 46.5% (90% CI: 44.8%-48.3%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2200-2499 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.