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Italian Game: Giuoco Piano, Aitken Variation

38K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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White Expected Score71.7%Range (90% confident): 71.3% – 72.1%Based on 38K games
0%71.7%100%
Range (90% confident): 71.3% – 72.1%
Outcome Distribution
70.4%2.5%27.1%
Win
Draw
Loss
10.Ba3
Italian Game: Giuoco Piano, Aitken Variation
Analyzen=38K
Avg Length28 moves
Sharpness98%
Draw Rate2.5%

What is the Italian Game: Giuoco Piano, Aitken Variation expected score for White?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Italian Game: Giuoco Piano, Aitken Variation has a 71.7% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 71.3% and 72.1%), based on 38K Lichess games.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Traps & Chaos

Complexity: 97.5 · Trap factor: +18.9 · n=38K

White Win% by Rating

Declines with rating: 70% → 52%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 69.6% win rate (568 games)
  • 1000-1199: 73.2% win rate (2,478 games)
  • 1200-1399: 74.8% win rate (6,617 games)
  • 1400-1599: 71.8% win rate (10,540 games)
  • 1600-1799: 68.8% win rate (10,301 games)
  • 1800-1999: 66.0% win rate (5,626 games)
  • 2000-2199: 65.2% win rate (1,485 games)
  • 2200-2499: 63.5% win rate (212 games)
  • 2500+: 52.4% win rate (9 games)

White Win% by Time Control

Best in Rapid (72%), worst in UltraBullet (9%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 9.1% win rate (4 games)
  • Bullet: 67.4% win rate (7,336 games)
  • Blitz: 70.6% win rate (16,574 games)
  • Rapid: 71.8% win rate (13,181 games)
  • Classical: 71.0% win rate (741 games)

White% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999—
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599—
1600-1799—
1800-1999—
2000-2199—
2200-2499——
2500+————

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 65.3% expected score (234 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 77.4% expected score (161 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 70.6% expected score (171 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 16.7% expected score (3 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 71.1% expected score (816 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 77.0% expected score (927 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 74.9% expected score (720 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 57.5% expected score (12 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 72.1% expected score (1,498 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 76.0% expected score (2,912 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 78.5% expected score (2,157 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 81.7% expected score (49 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 68.7% expected score (1,751 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 73.1% expected score (4,772 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 74.5% expected score (3,819 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 75.6% expected score (198 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 66.3% expected score (1,455 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 69.5% expected score (4,705 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 72.3% expected score (3,823 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 71.6% expected score (318 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 63.6% expected score (988 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 67.8% expected score (2,455 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 68.9% expected score (2,044 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 71.7% expected score (139 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 69.2% expected score (455 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 67.3% expected score (587 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 64.9% expected score (420 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 54.1% expected score (23 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 62.9% expected score (130 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 65.9% expected score (55 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 72.8% expected score (27 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 59.6% expected score (9 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Italian Game
55.0%
Variations (5)
Italian Game: Anti-Fried Liver Defense
51.3%
Italian Game: Bird's Attack
47.2%
Italian Game: Blackburne-Kostić Gambit
46.9%
Italian Game: Blackburne-Kosti�� Gambit
44.3%
Italian Game: Classical Variation
51.6%
Analyze Italian Game: Giuoco Piano, Aitken Variation PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Italian Game: Giuoco Piano, Aitken Variation win rate?

The Italian Game: Giuoco Piano, Aitken Variation has a 70.4% (90% CI: 70.0%-70.8%) win rate for white, based on 38K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Italian Game: Giuoco Piano, Aitken Variation perform best?

The Italian Game: Giuoco Piano, Aitken Variation performs best at 1200-1399 Elo with a 74.8% win rate for white (6.6K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Italian Game: Giuoco Piano, Aitken Variation better in blitz or rapid?

Rapid (71.8%) outperforms Bullet (67.4%) by 4.4%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Italian Game: Giuoco Piano, Aitken Variation?

The Italian Game: Giuoco Piano, Aitken Variation has a sharpness score of 97.5 (very decisive), meaning 97.5% of games end decisively. Average game length is 28 moves.

What is the Italian Game: Giuoco Piano, Aitken Variation win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the Italian Game: Giuoco Piano, Aitken Variation has a 69.6% (90% CI: 66.4%-72.8%) win rate for white, based on 568 Lichess games. Average game length is 24 moves with a 1.5% draw rate.

What is the Italian Game: Giuoco Piano, Aitken Variation win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Italian Game: Giuoco Piano, Aitken Variation has a 73.2% (90% CI: 71.7%-74.7%) win rate for white, based on 2.5K Lichess games. Average game length is 25 moves with a 2.1% draw rate.

What is the Italian Game: Giuoco Piano, Aitken Variation win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Italian Game: Giuoco Piano, Aitken Variation has a 74.8% (90% CI: 74.0%-75.7%) win rate for white, based on 6.6K Lichess games. Average game length is 27 moves with a 2.2% draw rate.

What is the Italian Game: Giuoco Piano, Aitken Variation win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Italian Game: Giuoco Piano, Aitken Variation has a 71.8% (90% CI: 71.1%-72.5%) win rate for white, based on 11K Lichess games. Average game length is 28 moves with a 2.2% draw rate.

What is the Italian Game: Giuoco Piano, Aitken Variation win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Italian Game: Giuoco Piano, Aitken Variation has a 68.8% (90% CI: 68.1%-69.6%) win rate for white, based on 10K Lichess games. Average game length is 29 moves with a 2.5% draw rate.

What is the Italian Game: Giuoco Piano, Aitken Variation win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Italian Game: Giuoco Piano, Aitken Variation has a 66.0% (90% CI: 65.0%-67.1%) win rate for white, based on 5.6K Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 3.0% draw rate.

What is the Italian Game: Giuoco Piano, Aitken Variation win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Italian Game: Giuoco Piano, Aitken Variation has a 65.2% (90% CI: 63.2%-67.2%) win rate for white, based on 1.5K Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 3.5% draw rate.

What is the Italian Game: Giuoco Piano, Aitken Variation win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Italian Game: Giuoco Piano, Aitken Variation has a 63.5% (90% CI: 58.0%-68.8%) win rate for white, based on 212 Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 3.5% draw rate.

What is the Italian Game: Giuoco Piano, Aitken Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Italian Game: Giuoco Piano, Aitken Variation has a 67.4% (90% CI: 66.5%-68.3%) win rate for white (7.3K Lichess games). Draw rate is 1.8%.

What is the Italian Game: Giuoco Piano, Aitken Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Italian Game: Giuoco Piano, Aitken Variation has a 70.6% (90% CI: 70.1%-71.2%) win rate for white (17K Lichess games). Draw rate is 2.3%.

What is the Italian Game: Giuoco Piano, Aitken Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Italian Game: Giuoco Piano, Aitken Variation has a 71.8% (90% CI: 71.1%-72.4%) win rate for white (13K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.0%.

What is the Italian Game: Giuoco Piano, Aitken Variation win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the Italian Game: Giuoco Piano, Aitken Variation has a 71.0% (90% CI: 68.3%-73.7%) win rate for white (741 Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.3%.

Is the Italian Game: Giuoco Piano, Aitken Variation a good opening?

The Italian Game: Giuoco Piano, Aitken Variation is statistically favors white with a 70.4% (90% CI: 70.0%-70.8%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 1200-1399 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.