36K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
At all ratings, the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Slow Variation has a 46.6% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 46.2% and 47.1%), based on 36K Lichess games.
Deep-dive datasets for this opening
Declines with rating: 53% → 49%
Best in Bullet (46%), worst in Classical (40%)
Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | — | |||
| 1000-1199 | — | ||||
| 1200-1399 | — | ||||
| 1400-1599 | — | ||||
| 1600-1799 | — | ||||
| 1800-1999 | — | ||||
| 2000-2199 | — | ||||
| 2200-2499 | — | ||||
| 2500+ | — | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
The Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Slow Variation has a 45.2% (90% CI: 44.8%-45.7%) win rate for white, based on 36K rated games from Lichess.
The Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Slow Variation performs best at 0-999 Elo with a 53.3% win rate for white (414 games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.
Bullet (46.3%) outperforms Classical (39.5%) by 6.8%. Choose your time control wisely.
The Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Slow Variation has a sharpness score of 97.2 (very decisive), meaning 97.2% of games end decisively. Average game length is 30 moves.
At 0-999 Elo, the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Slow Variation has a 53.3% (90% CI: 49.3%-57.3%) win rate for white, based on 414 Lichess games. Average game length is 23 moves with a 2.0% draw rate.
At 1000-1199 Elo, the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Slow Variation has a 49.7% (90% CI: 47.6%-51.8%) win rate for white, based on 1.6K Lichess games. Average game length is 25 moves with a 1.5% draw rate.
At 1200-1399 Elo, the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Slow Variation has a 44.3% (90% CI: 43.0%-45.6%) win rate for white, based on 4.1K Lichess games. Average game length is 27 moves with a 2.1% draw rate.
At 1400-1599 Elo, the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Slow Variation has a 44.0% (90% CI: 43.0%-44.9%) win rate for white, based on 7.4K Lichess games. Average game length is 29 moves with a 2.2% draw rate.
At 1600-1799 Elo, the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Slow Variation has a 44.9% (90% CI: 44.0%-45.7%) win rate for white, based on 9.2K Lichess games. Average game length is 30 moves with a 2.8% draw rate.
At 1800-1999 Elo, the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Slow Variation has a 46.2% (90% CI: 45.3%-47.1%) win rate for white, based on 8.5K Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 3.2% draw rate.
At 2000-2199 Elo, the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Slow Variation has a 44.2% (90% CI: 42.9%-45.5%) win rate for white, based on 4.0K Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 3.8% draw rate.
At 2200-2499 Elo, the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Slow Variation has a 45.9% (90% CI: 43.3%-48.6%) win rate for white, based on 977 Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 5.5% draw rate.
At 2500+ Elo, the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Slow Variation has a 49.3% (90% CI: 41.4%-57.2%) win rate for white, based on 105 Lichess games. Average game length is 41 moves with a 8.0% draw rate.
In Bullet games, the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Slow Variation has a 46.3% (90% CI: 45.4%-47.2%) win rate for white (8.2K Lichess games). Draw rate is 1.8%.
In Blitz games, the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Slow Variation has a 44.9% (90% CI: 44.3%-45.5%) win rate for white (20K Lichess games). Draw rate is 2.9%.
In Rapid games, the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Slow Variation has a 45.1% (90% CI: 44.2%-46.0%) win rate for white (7.9K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.5%.
In Classical games, the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Slow Variation has a 39.5% (90% CI: 35.3%-43.8%) win rate for white (354 Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.8%.
The Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Slow Variation is slightly favors black with a 45.2% (90% CI: 44.8%-45.7%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 0-999 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.