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Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Morphy Attack

6.9K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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White Expected Score53.1%Range (90% confident): 52.2% – 54.1%Based on 6.9K games
0%53.1%100%
Range (90% confident): 52.2% – 54.1%
Outcome Distribution
51.6%3.0%45.4%
Win
Draw
Loss
9.Nc3
Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Morphy Attack
Analyzen=6.9K
Avg Length31 moves
Sharpness97%
Draw Rate3.0%

What is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Morphy Attack expected score for White?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Morphy Attack has a 53.1% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 52.2% and 54.1%), based on 6.9K Lichess games.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Gambit BreakpointWhite

Peak: +7.0% · Breakpoint: 0-999

White Win% by Rating

Declines with rating: 40% → 35%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 39.5% win rate (58 games)
  • 1000-1199: 47.9% win rate (202 games)
  • 1200-1399: 48.6% win rate (465 games)
  • 1400-1599: 53.6% win rate (831 games)
  • 1600-1799: 48.7% win rate (1,445 games)
  • 1800-1999: 52.1% win rate (1,847 games)
  • 2000-2199: 53.9% win rate (1,459 games)
  • 2200-2499: 55.0% win rate (519 games)
  • 2500+: 34.8% win rate (43 games)

White Win% by Time Control

Best in Rapid (53%), worst in Classical (48%)

Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • Bullet: 49.4% win rate (1,846 games)
  • Blitz: 52.3% win rate (3,761 games)
  • Rapid: 52.9% win rate (1,214 games)
  • Classical: 47.5% win rate (48 games)

White% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999——
1000-1199——
1200-1399—
1400-1599—
1600-1799—
1800-1999—
2000-2199—
2200-2499—
2500+——

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 42.3% expected score (31 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 42.5% expected score (25 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 64.3% expected score (2 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 44.0% expected score (82 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 48.3% expected score (87 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 57.3% expected score (33 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 49.4% expected score (166 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 50.5% expected score (227 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 52.1% expected score (71 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 57.6% expected score (222 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 54.2% expected score (449 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 53.2% expected score (156 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 68.2% expected score (4 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 46.4% expected score (369 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 50.6% expected score (806 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 52.6% expected score (256 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 40.4% expected score (14 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 49.4% expected score (395 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 55.0% expected score (1,088 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 54.6% expected score (342 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 56.4% expected score (22 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 52.1% expected score (342 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 56.1% expected score (833 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 58.1% expected score (278 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 36.7% expected score (6 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 54.1% expected score (209 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 60.0% expected score (234 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 55.9% expected score (75 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 45.3% expected score (30 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 50.0% expected score (12 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (1 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Italian Game
55.0%
Variations (5)
Italian Game: Anti-Fried Liver Defense
51.3%
Italian Game: Bird's Attack
47.2%
Italian Game: Blackburne-Kostić Gambit
46.9%
Italian Game: Blackburne-Kosti�� Gambit
44.3%
Italian Game: Classical Variation
51.6%
Analyze Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Morphy Attack PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Morphy Attack win rate?

The Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Morphy Attack has a 51.6% (90% CI: 50.6%-52.6%) win rate for white, based on 6.9K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Morphy Attack perform best?

The Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Morphy Attack performs best at 2000-2199 Elo with a 53.9% win rate for white (1.5K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Morphy Attack better in blitz or rapid?

Blitz (52.3%) outperforms Bullet (49.4%) by 2.9%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Morphy Attack?

The Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Morphy Attack has a sharpness score of 97.0 (very decisive), meaning 97.0% of games end decisively. Average game length is 31 moves.

What is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Morphy Attack win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Morphy Attack has a 47.9% (90% CI: 42.2%-53.7%) win rate for white, based on 202 Lichess games. Average game length is 27 moves with a 0.2% draw rate.

What is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Morphy Attack win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Morphy Attack has a 48.6% (90% CI: 44.8%-52.4%) win rate for white, based on 465 Lichess games. Average game length is 28 moves with a 3.3% draw rate.

What is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Morphy Attack win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Morphy Attack has a 53.6% (90% CI: 50.8%-56.5%) win rate for white, based on 831 Lichess games. Average game length is 29 moves with a 2.8% draw rate.

What is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Morphy Attack win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Morphy Attack has a 48.7% (90% CI: 46.5%-50.9%) win rate for white, based on 1.4K Lichess games. Average game length is 29 moves with a 2.0% draw rate.

What is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Morphy Attack win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Morphy Attack has a 52.1% (90% CI: 50.2%-54.0%) win rate for white, based on 1.8K Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 3.2% draw rate.

What is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Morphy Attack win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Morphy Attack has a 53.9% (90% CI: 51.7%-56.0%) win rate for white, based on 1.5K Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 3.2% draw rate.

What is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Morphy Attack win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Morphy Attack has a 55.0% (90% CI: 51.4%-58.6%) win rate for white, based on 519 Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 4.1% draw rate.

What is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Morphy Attack win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Morphy Attack has a 49.4% (90% CI: 47.5%-51.3%) win rate for white (1.8K Lichess games). Draw rate is 1.9%.

What is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Morphy Attack win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Morphy Attack has a 52.3% (90% CI: 51.0%-53.7%) win rate for white (3.8K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.3%.

What is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Morphy Attack win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Morphy Attack has a 52.9% (90% CI: 50.5%-55.2%) win rate for white (1.2K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.9%.

Is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Morphy Attack a good opening?

The Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Morphy Attack is statistically favors white with a 51.6% (90% CI: 50.6%-52.6%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2000-2199 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.