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Italian Game: Evans Gambit, McDonnell Defense, Main Line

64K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Tough Sell
White Expected Score48.3%Range (90% confident): 47.9% – 48.6%Based on 64K games
0%48.3%100%
Range (90% confident): 47.9% – 48.6%
Outcome Distribution
46.9%2.7%50.4%
Win
Draw
Loss
8...Bb6
Italian Game: Evans Gambit, McDonnell Defense, Main Line
Analyzen=64K
Avg Length31 moves
Sharpness97%
Draw Rate2.7%

What is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, McDonnell Defense, Main Line expected score for White?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, McDonnell Defense, Main Line has a 48.3% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 47.9% and 48.6%), based on 64K Lichess games.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Gambit BreakpointWhite

Peak: +4.8% · Breakpoint: 1000-1199

White Win% by Rating

Declines with rating: 55% → 48%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 55.4% win rate (391 games)
  • 1000-1199: 46.6% win rate (1,834 games)
  • 1200-1399: 47.8% win rate (4,981 games)
  • 1400-1599: 45.9% win rate (9,968 games)
  • 1600-1799: 47.1% win rate (15,227 games)
  • 1800-1999: 46.4% win rate (17,165 games)
  • 2000-2199: 47.2% win rate (11,220 games)
  • 2200-2499: 48.5% win rate (3,203 games)
  • 2500+: 47.7% win rate (205 games)

White Win% by Time Control

Similar across time controls (~47%)

Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • Bullet: 47.3% win rate (16,988 games)
  • Blitz: 46.6% win rate (36,248 games)
  • Rapid: 47.4% win rate (10,575 games)
  • Classical: 46.7% win rate (383 games)

White% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999—
1000-1199—
1200-1399—
1400-1599—
1600-1799—
1800-1999—
2000-2199—
2200-2499—
2500+——

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 60.6% expected score (193 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 53.7% expected score (160 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 48.8% expected score (37 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 45.8% expected score (750 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 48.0% expected score (855 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 53.4% expected score (223 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 36.7% expected score (6 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 49.3% expected score (1,720 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 48.4% expected score (2,533 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 49.0% expected score (720 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 60.6% expected score (8 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 46.2% expected score (2,528 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 46.9% expected score (5,628 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 49.1% expected score (1,764 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 54.1% expected score (48 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 48.1% expected score (3,394 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 48.1% expected score (8,848 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 48.9% expected score (2,848 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 50.4% expected score (137 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 48.2% expected score (3,677 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 47.7% expected score (10,183 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 48.0% expected score (3,163 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 44.1% expected score (142 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 48.8% expected score (2,967 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 48.5% expected score (6,671 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (1,542 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 56.0% expected score (40 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 48.8% expected score (1,581 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 50.6% expected score (1,347 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 54.6% expected score (274 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 51.2% expected score (178 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 64.3% expected score (23 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 59.1% expected score (4 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Italian Game
55.0%
Variations (5)
Italian Game: Anti-Fried Liver Defense
51.3%
Italian Game: Bird's Attack
47.2%
Italian Game: Blackburne-Kostić Gambit
46.9%
Italian Game: Blackburne-Kosti�� Gambit
44.3%
Italian Game: Classical Variation
51.6%
Analyze Italian Game: Evans Gambit, McDonnell Defense, Main Line PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, McDonnell Defense, Main Line win rate?

The Italian Game: Evans Gambit, McDonnell Defense, Main Line has a 46.9% (90% CI: 46.6%-47.2%) win rate for white, based on 64K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, McDonnell Defense, Main Line perform best?

The Italian Game: Evans Gambit, McDonnell Defense, Main Line performs best at 0-999 Elo with a 55.4% win rate for white (391 games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, McDonnell Defense, Main Line better in blitz or rapid?

Bullet (47.3%) outperforms Classical (46.7%) by 0.6%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, McDonnell Defense, Main Line?

The Italian Game: Evans Gambit, McDonnell Defense, Main Line has a sharpness score of 97.3 (very decisive), meaning 97.3% of games end decisively. Average game length is 31 moves.

What is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, McDonnell Defense, Main Line win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, McDonnell Defense, Main Line has a 55.4% (90% CI: 51.3%-59.5%) win rate for white, based on 391 Lichess games. Average game length is 26 moves with a 2.2% draw rate.

What is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, McDonnell Defense, Main Line win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, McDonnell Defense, Main Line has a 46.6% (90% CI: 44.7%-48.5%) win rate for white, based on 1.8K Lichess games. Average game length is 27 moves with a 2.2% draw rate.

What is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, McDonnell Defense, Main Line win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, McDonnell Defense, Main Line has a 47.8% (90% CI: 46.7%-49.0%) win rate for white, based on 5.0K Lichess games. Average game length is 28 moves with a 1.9% draw rate.

What is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, McDonnell Defense, Main Line win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, McDonnell Defense, Main Line has a 45.9% (90% CI: 45.1%-46.7%) win rate for white, based on 10.0K Lichess games. Average game length is 29 moves with a 2.4% draw rate.

What is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, McDonnell Defense, Main Line win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, McDonnell Defense, Main Line has a 47.1% (90% CI: 46.4%-47.7%) win rate for white, based on 15K Lichess games. Average game length is 30 moves with a 2.4% draw rate.

What is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, McDonnell Defense, Main Line win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, McDonnell Defense, Main Line has a 46.4% (90% CI: 45.8%-47.0%) win rate for white, based on 17K Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 2.8% draw rate.

What is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, McDonnell Defense, Main Line win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, McDonnell Defense, Main Line has a 47.2% (90% CI: 46.4%-48.0%) win rate for white, based on 11K Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 3.2% draw rate.

What is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, McDonnell Defense, Main Line win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, McDonnell Defense, Main Line has a 48.5% (90% CI: 47.1%-50.0%) win rate for white, based on 3.2K Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 3.1% draw rate.

What is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, McDonnell Defense, Main Line win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, McDonnell Defense, Main Line has a 47.7% (90% CI: 42.0%-53.4%) win rate for white, based on 205 Lichess games. Average game length is 39 moves with a 10.4% draw rate.

What is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, McDonnell Defense, Main Line win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, McDonnell Defense, Main Line has a 47.3% (90% CI: 46.7%-47.9%) win rate for white (17K Lichess games). Draw rate is 1.8%.

What is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, McDonnell Defense, Main Line win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, McDonnell Defense, Main Line has a 46.6% (90% CI: 46.2%-47.0%) win rate for white (36K Lichess games). Draw rate is 2.8%.

What is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, McDonnell Defense, Main Line win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, McDonnell Defense, Main Line has a 47.4% (90% CI: 46.6%-48.2%) win rate for white (11K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.4%.

What is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, McDonnell Defense, Main Line win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, McDonnell Defense, Main Line has a 46.7% (90% CI: 42.5%-50.9%) win rate for white (383 Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.8%.

Is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, McDonnell Defense, Main Line a good opening?

The Italian Game: Evans Gambit, McDonnell Defense, Main Line is slightly favors black with a 46.9% (90% CI: 46.6%-47.2%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 0-999 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.