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Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Main Line

94K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Playable
White Expected Score52.1%Range (90% confident): 51.9% – 52.4%Based on 94K games
0%52.1%100%
Range (90% confident): 51.9% – 52.4%
Outcome Distribution
50.8%2.6%46.6%
Win
Draw
Loss
5...Ba5
Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Main Line
Analyzen=94K
Avg Length30 moves
Sharpness97%
Draw Rate2.6%

What is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Main Line expected score for White?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Main Line has a 52.1% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 51.9% and 52.4%), based on 94K Lichess games.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Gambit BreakpointWhite

Peak: +4.2% · Breakpoint: 1000-1199

White Win% by Rating

Declines with rating: 52% → 44%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 51.7% win rate (916 games)
  • 1000-1199: 50.4% win rate (2,813 games)
  • 1200-1399: 50.0% win rate (8,213 games)
  • 1400-1599: 50.4% win rate (16,138 games)
  • 1600-1799: 51.2% win rate (24,309 games)
  • 1800-1999: 51.2% win rate (23,572 games)
  • 2000-2199: 50.6% win rate (13,599 games)
  • 2200-2499: 50.7% win rate (4,061 games)
  • 2500+: 44.3% win rate (275 games)

White Win% by Time Control

Best in Bullet (52%), worst in UltraBullet (14%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 14.3% win rate (2 games)
  • Bullet: 51.6% win rate (27,665 games)
  • Blitz: 50.8% win rate (51,563 games)
  • Rapid: 49.4% win rate (14,113 games)
  • Classical: 49.0% win rate (553 games)

White% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199—
1200-1399
1400-1599—
1600-1799—
1800-1999—
2000-2199—
2200-2499—
2500+——

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 54.8% expected score (411 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 50.5% expected score (333 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 53.0% expected score (170 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 52.0% expected score (1,342 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 49.7% expected score (1,085 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 52.4% expected score (378 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (8 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 51.5% expected score (3,266 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 50.8% expected score (3,918 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 50.1% expected score (1,016 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 64.9% expected score (12 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 52.6% expected score (4,262 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 51.3% expected score (9,475 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 50.3% expected score (2,342 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (59 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 54.6% expected score (5,579 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 52.3% expected score (14,430 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 50.4% expected score (4,045 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 45.9% expected score (255 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 53.0% expected score (5,825 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 52.9% expected score (13,656 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 51.1% expected score (3,911 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 52.2% expected score (180 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 51.5% expected score (4,410 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 52.3% expected score (7,186 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 53.5% expected score (1,966 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 73.4% expected score (37 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 50.5% expected score (2,371 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 54.0% expected score (1,412 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 58.1% expected score (277 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 44.3% expected score (199 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 56.5% expected score (68 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 34.2% expected score (8 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Italian Game
55.0%
Variations (5)
Italian Game: Anti-Fried Liver Defense
51.3%
Italian Game: Bird's Attack
47.2%
Italian Game: Blackburne-Kostić Gambit
46.9%
Italian Game: Blackburne-Kosti�� Gambit
44.3%
Italian Game: Classical Variation
51.6%
Analyze Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Main Line PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Main Line win rate?

The Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Main Line has a 50.8% (90% CI: 50.6%-51.1%) win rate for white, based on 94K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Main Line perform best?

The Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Main Line performs best at 1800-1999 Elo with a 51.2% win rate for white (24K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Main Line better in blitz or rapid?

Bullet (51.6%) outperforms Classical (49.0%) by 2.6%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Main Line?

The Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Main Line has a sharpness score of 97.4 (very decisive), meaning 97.4% of games end decisively. Average game length is 30 moves.

What is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Main Line win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Main Line has a 51.7% (90% CI: 49.0%-54.4%) win rate for white, based on 916 Lichess games. Average game length is 22 moves with a 2.2% draw rate.

What is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Main Line win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Main Line has a 50.4% (90% CI: 48.9%-52.0%) win rate for white, based on 2.8K Lichess games. Average game length is 24 moves with a 1.5% draw rate.

What is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Main Line win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Main Line has a 50.0% (90% CI: 49.1%-50.9%) win rate for white, based on 8.2K Lichess games. Average game length is 26 moves with a 1.9% draw rate.

What is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Main Line win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Main Line has a 50.4% (90% CI: 49.8%-51.1%) win rate for white, based on 16K Lichess games. Average game length is 28 moves with a 2.1% draw rate.

What is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Main Line win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Main Line has a 51.2% (90% CI: 50.6%-51.7%) win rate for white, based on 24K Lichess games. Average game length is 29 moves with a 2.5% draw rate.

What is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Main Line win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Main Line has a 51.2% (90% CI: 50.7%-51.7%) win rate for white, based on 24K Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 2.8% draw rate.

What is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Main Line win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Main Line has a 50.6% (90% CI: 49.9%-51.3%) win rate for white, based on 14K Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 3.3% draw rate.

What is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Main Line win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Main Line has a 50.7% (90% CI: 49.5%-52.0%) win rate for white, based on 4.1K Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 2.9% draw rate.

What is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Main Line win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Main Line has a 44.3% (90% CI: 39.4%-49.2%) win rate for white, based on 275 Lichess games. Average game length is 38 moves with a 5.2% draw rate.

What is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Main Line win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Main Line has a 51.6% (90% CI: 51.1%-52.1%) win rate for white (28K Lichess games). Draw rate is 1.8%.

What is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Main Line win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Main Line has a 50.8% (90% CI: 50.4%-51.1%) win rate for white (52K Lichess games). Draw rate is 2.7%.

What is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Main Line win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Main Line has a 49.4% (90% CI: 48.7%-50.1%) win rate for white (14K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.5%.

What is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Main Line win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Main Line has a 49.0% (90% CI: 45.5%-52.5%) win rate for white (553 Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.7%.

Is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Main Line a good opening?

The Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Main Line is statistically balanced with a 50.8% (90% CI: 50.6%-51.1%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 1800-1999 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.