93K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
At all ratings, the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Harding Variation has a 54.0% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 53.7% and 54.3%), based on 93K Lichess games.
Deep-dive datasets for this opening
Improves with rating: 54% → 59%
Best in UltraBullet (58%), worst in Classical (52%)
Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | |||||
| 1000-1199 | |||||
| 1200-1399 | — | ||||
| 1400-1599 | |||||
| 1600-1799 | |||||
| 1800-1999 | — | ||||
| 2000-2199 | — | ||||
| 2200-2499 | — | — | |||
| 2500+ | — | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
The Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Harding Variation has a 52.2% (90% CI: 51.9%-52.5%) win rate for white, based on 93K rated games from Lichess.
The Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Harding Variation performs best at 0-999 Elo with a 53.5% win rate for white (3.3K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.
Bullet (52.7%) outperforms Classical (51.9%) by 0.8%. Choose your time control wisely.
The Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Harding Variation has a sharpness score of 96.4 (very decisive), meaning 96.4% of games end decisively. Average game length is 32 moves.
At 0-999 Elo, the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Harding Variation has a 53.5% (90% CI: 52.1%-54.9%) win rate for white, based on 3.3K Lichess games. Average game length is 27 moves with a 2.6% draw rate.
At 1000-1199 Elo, the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Harding Variation has a 52.7% (90% CI: 51.9%-53.5%) win rate for white, based on 10K Lichess games. Average game length is 29 moves with a 3.1% draw rate.
At 1200-1399 Elo, the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Harding Variation has a 52.4% (90% CI: 51.8%-53.0%) win rate for white, based on 19K Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 3.3% draw rate.
At 1400-1599 Elo, the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Harding Variation has a 51.4% (90% CI: 50.9%-52.0%) win rate for white, based on 24K Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 3.5% draw rate.
At 1600-1799 Elo, the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Harding Variation has a 52.2% (90% CI: 51.6%-52.8%) win rate for white, based on 20K Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 3.7% draw rate.
At 1800-1999 Elo, the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Harding Variation has a 52.3% (90% CI: 51.5%-53.0%) win rate for white, based on 12K Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 4.2% draw rate.
At 2000-2199 Elo, the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Harding Variation has a 52.9% (90% CI: 51.6%-54.2%) win rate for white, based on 3.8K Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 4.3% draw rate.
At 2200-2499 Elo, the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Harding Variation has a 53.6% (90% CI: 50.8%-56.4%) win rate for white, based on 846 Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 3.6% draw rate.
In Bullet games, the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Harding Variation has a 52.7% (90% CI: 52.1%-53.3%) win rate for white (20K Lichess games). Draw rate is 2.3%.
In Blitz games, the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Harding Variation has a 51.9% (90% CI: 51.5%-52.3%) win rate for white (46K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.6%.
In Rapid games, the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Harding Variation has a 52.4% (90% CI: 51.9%-52.9%) win rate for white (27K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.4%.
In Classical games, the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Harding Variation has a 51.9% (90% CI: 49.4%-54.4%) win rate for white (1.1K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.0%.
The Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Harding Variation is statistically favors white with a 52.2% (90% CI: 51.9%-52.5%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 0-999 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.