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Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Dufresne Defense

3.8K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Tough Sell
White Expected Score48.9%Range (90% confident): 47.5% – 50.2%Based on 3.8K games
0%48.9%100%
Range (90% confident): 47.5% – 50.2%
Outcome Distribution
47.4%2.9%49.7%
Win
Draw
Loss
7...d3
Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Dufresne Defense
Analyzen=3.8K
Avg Length31 moves
Sharpness97%
Draw Rate2.9%

What is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Dufresne Defense expected score for White?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Dufresne Defense has a 48.9% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 47.5% and 50.2%), based on 3.8K Lichess games.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Gambit BreakpointWhite

Peak: -2.6% · Breakpoint: 1200-1399

White Win% by Rating

Declines with rating: 41% → 36%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 41.2% win rate (7 games)
  • 1000-1199: 33.3% win rate (12 games)
  • 1200-1399: 47.8% win rate (56 games)
  • 1400-1599: 54.3% win rate (143 games)
  • 1600-1799: 48.3% win rate (407 games)
  • 1800-1999: 49.3% win rate (991 games)
  • 2000-2199: 45.9% win rate (1,409 games)
  • 2200-2499: 46.8% win rate (699 games)
  • 2500+: 36.1% win rate (58 games)

White Win% by Time Control

Similar across time controls (~49%)

Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • Bullet: 47.8% win rate (1,190 games)
  • Blitz: 47.0% win rate (2,193 games)
  • Rapid: 48.5% win rate (377 games)
  • Classical: 48.9% win rate (22 games)

White% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999——
1000-1199———
1200-1399—
1400-1599—
1600-1799—
1800-1999—
2000-2199—
2200-2499——
2500+——

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 42.4% expected score (5 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 35.7% expected score (9 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 38.9% expected score (3 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 53.7% expected score (39 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 55.9% expected score (7 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 16.7% expected score (9 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 53.7% expected score (93 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 60.4% expected score (42 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 44.2% expected score (7 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 49.2% expected score (124 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 49.3% expected score (256 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 55.9% expected score (24 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 38.9% expected score (3 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 47.5% expected score (238 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 52.1% expected score (614 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 48.1% expected score (129 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 58.7% expected score (10 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 48.2% expected score (357 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 46.2% expected score (894 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 52.6% expected score (151 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 44.1% expected score (7 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 49.5% expected score (276 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 47.0% expected score (371 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 57.5% expected score (52 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 38.1% expected score (49 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 50.0% expected score (8 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 70.0% expected score (1 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Italian Game
55.0%
Variations (5)
Italian Game: Anti-Fried Liver Defense
51.3%
Italian Game: Bird's Attack
47.2%
Italian Game: Blackburne-Kostić Gambit
46.9%
Italian Game: Blackburne-Kosti�� Gambit
44.3%
Italian Game: Classical Variation
51.6%
Analyze Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Dufresne Defense PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Dufresne Defense win rate?

The Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Dufresne Defense has a 47.4% (90% CI: 46.1%-48.7%) win rate for white, based on 3.8K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Dufresne Defense perform best?

The Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Dufresne Defense performs best at 1400-1599 Elo with a 54.3% win rate for white (143 games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Dufresne Defense better in blitz or rapid?

Bullet (47.8%) outperforms Rapid (48.5%) by -0.7%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Dufresne Defense?

The Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Dufresne Defense has a sharpness score of 97.1 (very decisive), meaning 97.1% of games end decisively. Average game length is 31 moves.

What is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Dufresne Defense win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Dufresne Defense has a 54.3% (90% CI: 47.5%-61.1%) win rate for white, based on 143 Lichess games. Average game length is 26 moves with a 2.4% draw rate.

What is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Dufresne Defense win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Dufresne Defense has a 48.3% (90% CI: 44.3%-52.4%) win rate for white, based on 407 Lichess games. Average game length is 28 moves with a 2.3% draw rate.

What is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Dufresne Defense win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Dufresne Defense has a 49.3% (90% CI: 46.7%-51.9%) win rate for white, based on 991 Lichess games. Average game length is 29 moves with a 2.4% draw rate.

What is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Dufresne Defense win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Dufresne Defense has a 45.9% (90% CI: 43.7%-48.1%) win rate for white, based on 1.4K Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 2.9% draw rate.

What is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Dufresne Defense win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Dufresne Defense has a 46.8% (90% CI: 43.7%-49.9%) win rate for white, based on 699 Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 3.9% draw rate.

What is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Dufresne Defense win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Dufresne Defense has a 47.8% (90% CI: 45.4%-50.2%) win rate for white (1.2K Lichess games). Draw rate is 1.4%.

What is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Dufresne Defense win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Dufresne Defense has a 47.0% (90% CI: 45.2%-48.7%) win rate for white (2.2K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.3%.

What is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Dufresne Defense win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Dufresne Defense has a 48.5% (90% CI: 44.3%-52.7%) win rate for white (377 Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.9%.

Is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Dufresne Defense a good opening?

The Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Dufresne Defense is slightly favors black with a 47.4% (90% CI: 46.1%-48.7%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 1400-1599 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.