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Italian Game: Evans Gambit Declined, Showalter Variation

6.0K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Tough Sell
White Expected Score47.9%Range (90% confident): 46.8% – 49.0%Based on 6.0K games
0%47.9%100%
Range (90% confident): 46.8% – 49.0%
Outcome Distribution
45.9%3.9%50.2%
Win
Draw
Loss
6.Nc3
Italian Game: Evans Gambit Declined, Showalter Variation
Analyzen=6.0K
Avg Length32 moves
Sharpness96%
Draw Rate3.9%

What is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit Declined, Showalter Variation expected score for White?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Italian Game: Evans Gambit Declined, Showalter Variation has a 47.9% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 46.8% and 49.0%), based on 6.0K Lichess games.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Gambit BreakpointWhite

Peak: +2.9% · Breakpoint: 1000-1199

White Win% by Rating

Improves with rating: 43% → 53%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 42.9% win rate (23 games)
  • 1000-1199: 49.3% win rate (168 games)
  • 1200-1399: 44.6% win rate (609 games)
  • 1400-1599: 48.6% win rate (999 games)
  • 1600-1799: 46.6% win rate (1,376 games)
  • 1800-1999: 44.4% win rate (1,155 games)
  • 2000-2199: 45.3% win rate (730 games)
  • 2200-2499: 42.6% win rate (735 games)
  • 2500+: 53.0% win rate (156 games)

White Win% by Time Control

Best in Rapid (48%), worst in Classical (42%)

Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • Bullet: 45.1% win rate (1,309 games)
  • Blitz: 45.5% win rate (3,490 games)
  • Rapid: 48.4% win rate (1,102 games)
  • Classical: 41.7% win rate (50 games)

White% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999——
1000-1199——
1200-1399—
1400-1599—
1600-1799—
1800-1999—
2000-2199—
2200-2499——
2500+——

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 50.0% expected score (10 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 38.0% expected score (11 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 64.3% expected score (2 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 54.9% expected score (71 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 50.7% expected score (73 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 34.3% expected score (24 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 43.8% expected score (184 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 45.8% expected score (365 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 53.3% expected score (59 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 50.3% expected score (179 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 49.1% expected score (630 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 51.3% expected score (185 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 57.7% expected score (5 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 41.0% expected score (209 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 48.0% expected score (872 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 55.2% expected score (278 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (17 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 44.1% expected score (210 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 47.5% expected score (688 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 45.2% expected score (237 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 38.4% expected score (20 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 47.9% expected score (118 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 48.5% expected score (421 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 46.8% expected score (184 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 32.4% expected score (7 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 46.9% expected score (252 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 41.2% expected score (356 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 57.8% expected score (127 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 59.7% expected score (76 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 58.6% expected score (74 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 30.0% expected score (6 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Italian Game
55.0%
Variations (5)
Italian Game: Anti-Fried Liver Defense
51.3%
Italian Game: Bird's Attack
47.2%
Italian Game: Blackburne-Kostić Gambit
46.9%
Italian Game: Blackburne-Kosti�� Gambit
44.3%
Italian Game: Classical Variation
51.6%
Analyze Italian Game: Evans Gambit Declined, Showalter Variation PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit Declined, Showalter Variation win rate?

The Italian Game: Evans Gambit Declined, Showalter Variation has a 45.9% (90% CI: 44.9%-47.0%) win rate for white, based on 6.0K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Italian Game: Evans Gambit Declined, Showalter Variation perform best?

The Italian Game: Evans Gambit Declined, Showalter Variation performs best at 2500+ Elo with a 53.0% win rate for white (156 games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit Declined, Showalter Variation better in blitz or rapid?

Rapid (48.4%) outperforms Classical (41.7%) by 6.7%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit Declined, Showalter Variation?

The Italian Game: Evans Gambit Declined, Showalter Variation has a sharpness score of 96.1 (very decisive), meaning 96.1% of games end decisively. Average game length is 32 moves.

What is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit Declined, Showalter Variation win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Italian Game: Evans Gambit Declined, Showalter Variation has a 49.3% (90% CI: 43.0%-55.6%) win rate for white, based on 168 Lichess games. Average game length is 27 moves with a 1.5% draw rate.

What is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit Declined, Showalter Variation win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Italian Game: Evans Gambit Declined, Showalter Variation has a 44.6% (90% CI: 41.3%-48.0%) win rate for white, based on 609 Lichess games. Average game length is 28 moves with a 2.7% draw rate.

What is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit Declined, Showalter Variation win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Italian Game: Evans Gambit Declined, Showalter Variation has a 48.6% (90% CI: 46.0%-51.2%) win rate for white, based on 999 Lichess games. Average game length is 29 moves with a 2.3% draw rate.

What is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit Declined, Showalter Variation win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Italian Game: Evans Gambit Declined, Showalter Variation has a 46.6% (90% CI: 44.4%-48.9%) win rate for white, based on 1.4K Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 3.4% draw rate.

What is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit Declined, Showalter Variation win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Italian Game: Evans Gambit Declined, Showalter Variation has a 44.4% (90% CI: 42.0%-46.8%) win rate for white, based on 1.2K Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 3.6% draw rate.

What is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit Declined, Showalter Variation win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Italian Game: Evans Gambit Declined, Showalter Variation has a 45.3% (90% CI: 42.3%-48.4%) win rate for white, based on 730 Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 4.9% draw rate.

What is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit Declined, Showalter Variation win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Italian Game: Evans Gambit Declined, Showalter Variation has a 42.6% (90% CI: 39.6%-45.6%) win rate for white, based on 735 Lichess games. Average game length is 38 moves with a 6.9% draw rate.

What is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit Declined, Showalter Variation win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Italian Game: Evans Gambit Declined, Showalter Variation has a 53.0% (90% CI: 46.5%-59.5%) win rate for white, based on 156 Lichess games. Average game length is 40 moves with a 9.8% draw rate.

What is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit Declined, Showalter Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Italian Game: Evans Gambit Declined, Showalter Variation has a 45.1% (90% CI: 42.9%-47.4%) win rate for white (1.3K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.3%.

What is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit Declined, Showalter Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Italian Game: Evans Gambit Declined, Showalter Variation has a 45.5% (90% CI: 44.1%-46.9%) win rate for white (3.5K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.0%.

What is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit Declined, Showalter Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Italian Game: Evans Gambit Declined, Showalter Variation has a 48.4% (90% CI: 46.0%-50.9%) win rate for white (1.1K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.3%.

Is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit Declined, Showalter Variation a good opening?

The Italian Game: Evans Gambit Declined, Showalter Variation is slightly favors black with a 45.9% (90% CI: 44.9%-47.0%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2500+ Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.