4.6K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
At all ratings, the Italian Game: Evans Gambit Declined, Cordel Variation has a 45.9% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 44.6% and 47.1%), based on 4.6K Lichess games.
Deep-dive datasets for this opening
Improves with rating: 45% → 57%
Best in Blitz (45%), worst in Classical (37%)
Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | — | |||
| 1000-1199 | — | — | |||
| 1200-1399 | — | ||||
| 1400-1599 | — | ||||
| 1600-1799 | — | ||||
| 1800-1999 | — | ||||
| 2000-2199 | — | ||||
| 2200-2499 | — | — | |||
| 2500+ | — | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
The Italian Game: Evans Gambit Declined, Cordel Variation has a 44.3% (90% CI: 43.1%-45.5%) win rate for white, based on 4.6K rated games from Lichess.
The Italian Game: Evans Gambit Declined, Cordel Variation performs best at 1600-1799 Elo with a 44.8% win rate for white (1.1K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.
Blitz (44.6%) outperforms Bullet (43.7%) by 0.9%. Choose your time control wisely.
The Italian Game: Evans Gambit Declined, Cordel Variation has a sharpness score of 96.9 (very decisive), meaning 96.9% of games end decisively. Average game length is 31 moves.
At 1000-1199 Elo, the Italian Game: Evans Gambit Declined, Cordel Variation has a 47.9% (90% CI: 42.2%-53.7%) win rate for white, based on 202 Lichess games. Average game length is 25 moves with a 2.2% draw rate.
At 1200-1399 Elo, the Italian Game: Evans Gambit Declined, Cordel Variation has a 44.3% (90% CI: 41.2%-47.4%) win rate for white, based on 690 Lichess games. Average game length is 28 moves with a 3.1% draw rate.
At 1400-1599 Elo, the Italian Game: Evans Gambit Declined, Cordel Variation has a 44.0% (90% CI: 41.4%-46.5%) win rate for white, based on 1.0K Lichess games. Average game length is 30 moves with a 2.5% draw rate.
At 1600-1799 Elo, the Italian Game: Evans Gambit Declined, Cordel Variation has a 44.8% (90% CI: 42.4%-47.2%) win rate for white, based on 1.1K Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 3.0% draw rate.
At 1800-1999 Elo, the Italian Game: Evans Gambit Declined, Cordel Variation has a 41.9% (90% CI: 39.2%-44.7%) win rate for white, based on 858 Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 3.2% draw rate.
At 2000-2199 Elo, the Italian Game: Evans Gambit Declined, Cordel Variation has a 45.2% (90% CI: 41.3%-49.1%) win rate for white, based on 442 Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 4.6% draw rate.
At 2200-2499 Elo, the Italian Game: Evans Gambit Declined, Cordel Variation has a 45.1% (90% CI: 38.9%-51.4%) win rate for white, based on 168 Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 5.6% draw rate.
In Bullet games, the Italian Game: Evans Gambit Declined, Cordel Variation has a 43.7% (90% CI: 40.8%-46.7%) win rate for white (752 Lichess games). Draw rate is 2.1%.
In Blitz games, the Italian Game: Evans Gambit Declined, Cordel Variation has a 44.6% (90% CI: 43.0%-46.1%) win rate for white (2.8K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.6%.
In Rapid games, the Italian Game: Evans Gambit Declined, Cordel Variation has a 44.0% (90% CI: 41.5%-46.5%) win rate for white (1.0K Lichess games). Draw rate is 2.6%.
The Italian Game: Evans Gambit Declined, Cordel Variation is slightly favors black with a 44.3% (90% CI: 43.1%-45.5%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 1600-1799 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.