25K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
At all ratings, the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Bronstein Defense has a 48.7% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 48.2% and 49.2%), based on 25K Lichess games.
Deep-dive datasets for this opening
Declines with rating: 52% → 47%
Best in UltraBullet (60%), worst in Classical (41%)
Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | — | |||
| 1000-1199 | — | ||||
| 1200-1399 | |||||
| 1400-1599 | — | ||||
| 1600-1799 | — | ||||
| 1800-1999 | — | ||||
| 2000-2199 | — | ||||
| 2200-2499 | — | ||||
| 2500+ | — | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
The Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Bronstein Defense has a 46.7% (90% CI: 46.2%-47.2%) win rate for white, based on 25K rated games from Lichess.
The Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Bronstein Defense performs best at 1400-1599 Elo with a 48.9% win rate for white (2.1K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.
Bullet (47.3%) outperforms Classical (41.2%) by 6.1%. Choose your time control wisely.
The Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Bronstein Defense has a sharpness score of 96.1 (very decisive), meaning 96.1% of games end decisively. Average game length is 32 moves.
At 0-999 Elo, the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Bronstein Defense has a 52.2% (90% CI: 46.3%-58.1%) win rate for white, based on 193 Lichess games. Average game length is 27 moves with a 2.8% draw rate.
At 1000-1199 Elo, the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Bronstein Defense has a 49.4% (90% CI: 45.8%-53.0%) win rate for white, based on 518 Lichess games. Average game length is 27 moves with a 1.6% draw rate.
At 1200-1399 Elo, the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Bronstein Defense has a 45.0% (90% CI: 42.6%-47.4%) win rate for white, based on 1.2K Lichess games. Average game length is 29 moves with a 2.6% draw rate.
At 1400-1599 Elo, the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Bronstein Defense has a 48.9% (90% CI: 47.1%-50.7%) win rate for white, based on 2.1K Lichess games. Average game length is 29 moves with a 3.8% draw rate.
At 1600-1799 Elo, the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Bronstein Defense has a 46.2% (90% CI: 44.9%-47.5%) win rate for white, based on 4.0K Lichess games. Average game length is 30 moves with a 3.8% draw rate.
At 1800-1999 Elo, the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Bronstein Defense has a 47.7% (90% CI: 46.7%-48.7%) win rate for white, based on 6.8K Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 3.7% draw rate.
At 2000-2199 Elo, the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Bronstein Defense has a 45.7% (90% CI: 44.8%-46.8%) win rate for white, based on 6.7K Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 4.1% draw rate.
At 2200-2499 Elo, the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Bronstein Defense has a 45.7% (90% CI: 44.3%-47.2%) win rate for white, based on 3.4K Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 5.0% draw rate.
At 2500+ Elo, the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Bronstein Defense has a 47.0% (90% CI: 42.5%-51.6%) win rate for white, based on 325 Lichess games. Average game length is 38 moves with a 7.2% draw rate.
In Bullet games, the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Bronstein Defense has a 47.3% (90% CI: 46.4%-48.3%) win rate for white (7.2K Lichess games). Draw rate is 2.9%.
In Blitz games, the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Bronstein Defense has a 46.7% (90% CI: 46.0%-47.4%) win rate for white (14K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.2%.
In Rapid games, the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Bronstein Defense has a 45.7% (90% CI: 44.4%-47.1%) win rate for white (3.7K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.6%.
In Classical games, the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Bronstein Defense has a 41.2% (90% CI: 35.2%-47.3%) win rate for white (177 Lichess games). Draw rate is 6.4%.
The Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Bronstein Defense is statistically balanced with a 46.7% (90% CI: 46.2%-47.2%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 1400-1599 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.