282 games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
At all ratings, the Italian Game: Classical Variation, Tarrasch Variation has a 48.3% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 43.4% and 53.2%), based on 282 Lichess games.
Improves with rating: 60% → 62%
Best in Bullet (57%), worst in Rapid (38%)
Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | — | — | — | — |
| 1000-1199 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1200-1399 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1400-1599 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1600-1799 | — | — | — | ||
| 1800-1999 | — | — | |||
| 2000-2199 | — | — | |||
| 2200-2499 | — | — | |||
| 2500+ | — | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
The Italian Game: Classical Variation, Tarrasch Variation has a 45.7% (90% CI: 40.8%-50.6%) win rate for white, based on 282 rated games from Lichess.
The Italian Game: Classical Variation, Tarrasch Variation performs best at 2000-2199 Elo with a 44.8% win rate for white (100 games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.
The Italian Game: Classical Variation, Tarrasch Variation has a sharpness score of 94.9 (decisive), meaning 94.9% of games end decisively. Average game length is 40 moves.
At 2000-2199 Elo, the Italian Game: Classical Variation, Tarrasch Variation has a 44.8% (90% CI: 36.8%-53.0%) win rate for white, based on 100 Lichess games. Average game length is 39 moves with a 3.4% draw rate.
At 2200-2499 Elo, the Italian Game: Classical Variation, Tarrasch Variation has a 40.8% (90% CI: 33.9%-47.9%) win rate for white, based on 132 Lichess games. Average game length is 42 moves with a 7.9% draw rate.
In Blitz games, the Italian Game: Classical Variation, Tarrasch Variation has a 43.9% (90% CI: 38.4%-49.5%) win rate for white (216 Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.3%.
The Italian Game: Classical Variation, Tarrasch Variation is slightly favors black with a 45.7% (90% CI: 40.8%-50.6%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2000-2199 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.