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Analyzer

Italian Game: Classical Variation, Mestel Variation

770 games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Tough Sell
White Expected Score42.5%Range (90% confident): 39.5% – 45.4%Based on 770 games
0%42.5%100%
Range (90% confident): 39.5% – 45.4%
Outcome Distribution
40.4%4.1%55.5%
Win
Draw
Loss
6.Bg5
Italian Game: Classical Variation, Mestel Variation
Analyzen=770
Avg Length34 moves
Sharpness96%
Draw Rate4.1%

What is the Italian Game: Classical Variation, Mestel Variation expected score for White?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Italian Game: Classical Variation, Mestel Variation has a 42.5% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 39.5% and 45.4%), based on 770 Lichess games.

White Win% by Rating

Declines with rating: 30% → 11%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 29.7% win rate (17 games)
  • 1000-1199: 31.4% win rate (16 games)
  • 1200-1399: 47.8% win rate (33 games)
  • 1400-1599: 39.9% win rate (80 games)
  • 1600-1799: 46.1% win rate (160 games)
  • 1800-1999: 36.2% win rate (235 games)
  • 2000-2199: 38.8% win rate (170 games)
  • 2200-2499: 49.6% win rate (56 games)
  • 2500+: 11.1% win rate (3 games)

White Win% by Time Control

Best in Blitz (42%), worst in Classical (14%)

Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • Bullet: 38.3% win rate (112 games)
  • Blitz: 42.1% win rate (477 games)
  • Rapid: 38.3% win rate (172 games)
  • Classical: 14.3% win rate (9 games)

White% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999——
1000-1199——
1200-1399—
1400-1599—
1600-1799—
1800-1999—
2000-2199——
2200-2499——
2500+————

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 16.7% expected score (9 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (6 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 21.5% expected score (2 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 50.0% expected score (10 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 13.7% expected score (4 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 73.1% expected score (5 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 50.0% expected score (16 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 42.0% expected score (11 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 35.7% expected score (9 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 40.2% expected score (44 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 51.9% expected score (25 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 21.5% expected score (2 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 48.2% expected score (26 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 51.0% expected score (100 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 38.4% expected score (33 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 32.0% expected score (29 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 43.2% expected score (145 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 35.3% expected score (56 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 34.7% expected score (5 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 45.1% expected score (29 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 36.5% expected score (106 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 48.6% expected score (35 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 32.6% expected score (10 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 59.9% expected score (44 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 21.5% expected score (2 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 16.7% expected score (3 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Italian Game
55.0%
Variations (5)
Italian Game: Anti-Fried Liver Defense
51.3%
Italian Game: Bird's Attack
47.2%
Italian Game: Blackburne-Kostić Gambit
46.9%
Italian Game: Blackburne-Kosti�� Gambit
44.3%
Italian Game: Classical Variation
51.6%
Analyze Italian Game: Classical Variation, Mestel Variation PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Italian Game: Classical Variation, Mestel Variation win rate?

The Italian Game: Classical Variation, Mestel Variation has a 40.4% (90% CI: 37.5%-43.3%) win rate for white, based on 770 rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Italian Game: Classical Variation, Mestel Variation perform best?

The Italian Game: Classical Variation, Mestel Variation performs best at 1600-1799 Elo with a 46.1% win rate for white (160 games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Italian Game: Classical Variation, Mestel Variation better in blitz or rapid?

Blitz (42.1%) outperforms Bullet (38.3%) by 3.8%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Italian Game: Classical Variation, Mestel Variation?

The Italian Game: Classical Variation, Mestel Variation has a sharpness score of 95.9 (very decisive), meaning 95.9% of games end decisively. Average game length is 34 moves.

What is the Italian Game: Classical Variation, Mestel Variation win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Italian Game: Classical Variation, Mestel Variation has a 46.1% (90% CI: 39.7%-52.6%) win rate for white, based on 160 Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 2.8% draw rate.

What is the Italian Game: Classical Variation, Mestel Variation win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Italian Game: Classical Variation, Mestel Variation has a 36.2% (90% CI: 31.1%-41.3%) win rate for white, based on 235 Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 6.6% draw rate.

What is the Italian Game: Classical Variation, Mestel Variation win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Italian Game: Classical Variation, Mestel Variation has a 38.8% (90% CI: 32.7%-45.0%) win rate for white, based on 170 Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 3.2% draw rate.

What is the Italian Game: Classical Variation, Mestel Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Italian Game: Classical Variation, Mestel Variation has a 38.3% (90% CI: 31.0%-45.9%) win rate for white (112 Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.8%.

What is the Italian Game: Classical Variation, Mestel Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Italian Game: Classical Variation, Mestel Variation has a 42.1% (90% CI: 38.4%-45.8%) win rate for white (477 Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.9%.

What is the Italian Game: Classical Variation, Mestel Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Italian Game: Classical Variation, Mestel Variation has a 38.3% (90% CI: 32.3%-44.5%) win rate for white (172 Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.3%.

Is the Italian Game: Classical Variation, Mestel Variation a good opening?

The Italian Game: Classical Variation, Mestel Variation is slightly favors black with a 40.4% (90% CI: 37.5%-43.3%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 1600-1799 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.