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Italian Game: Classical Variation, Greco Gambit, Moeller-Therkatz Attack

68K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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White Expected Score53.8%Range (90% confident): 53.5% – 54.1%Based on 68K games
0%53.8%100%
Range (90% confident): 53.5% – 54.1%
Outcome Distribution
51.2%5.1%43.7%
Win
Draw
Loss
9.d5
Italian Game: Classical Variation, Greco Gambit, Moeller-Therkatz Attack
Analyzen=68K
Avg Length33 moves
Sharpness95%
Draw Rate5.1%

What is the Italian Game: Classical Variation, Greco Gambit, Moeller-Therkatz Attack expected score for White?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Italian Game: Classical Variation, Greco Gambit, Moeller-Therkatz Attack has a 53.8% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 53.5% and 54.1%), based on 68K Lichess games.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Gambit BreakpointWhite

Peak: +20.6% · Breakpoint: 0-999

White Win% by Rating

Stable across ratings (~52%)

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 52.3% win rate (139 games)
  • 1000-1199: 62.3% win rate (341 games)
  • 1200-1399: 56.1% win rate (1,037 games)
  • 1400-1599: 55.6% win rate (3,092 games)
  • 1600-1799: 52.1% win rate (8,482 games)
  • 1800-1999: 51.6% win rate (19,519 games)
  • 2000-2199: 50.2% win rate (21,183 games)
  • 2200-2499: 49.9% win rate (12,755 games)
  • 2500+: 51.6% win rate (1,913 games)

White Win% by Time Control

Best in UltraBullet (82%), worst in Classical (51%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 81.8% win rate (4 games)
  • Bullet: 52.3% win rate (17,061 games)
  • Blitz: 50.9% win rate (37,756 games)
  • Rapid: 50.6% win rate (12,679 games)
  • Classical: 50.5% win rate (961 games)

White% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999——
1000-1199—
1200-1399—
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499—
2500+—

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 83.4% expected score (9 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 51.2% expected score (40 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 54.4% expected score (90 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 65.4% expected score (67 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 58.9% expected score (122 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 67.9% expected score (149 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 83.4% expected score (3 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 60.6% expected score (272 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 56.7% expected score (359 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 58.3% expected score (386 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 52.3% expected score (20 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 60.0% expected score (850 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 55.6% expected score (1,263 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 56.8% expected score (908 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 51.4% expected score (70 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 54.4% expected score (1,923 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 54.4% expected score (4,601 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 51.8% expected score (1,730 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 53.8% expected score (227 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 54.4% expected score (3,401 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 54.2% expected score (11,640 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 52.8% expected score (4,091 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 55.2% expected score (386 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 53.0% expected score (4,433 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 52.7% expected score (12,599 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 53.7% expected score (3,921 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 56.3% expected score (229 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 52.4% expected score (4,741 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 53.3% expected score (6,615 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 53.7% expected score (1,374 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (25 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 55.3% expected score (1,365 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 54.7% expected score (517 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 56.4% expected score (30 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (1 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Italian Game
55.0%
Variations (5)
Italian Game: Anti-Fried Liver Defense
51.3%
Italian Game: Bird's Attack
47.2%
Italian Game: Blackburne-Kostić Gambit
46.9%
Italian Game: Blackburne-Kosti�� Gambit
44.3%
Italian Game: Classical Variation
51.6%
Analyze Italian Game: Classical Variation, Greco Gambit, Moeller-Therkatz Attack PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Italian Game: Classical Variation, Greco Gambit, Moeller-Therkatz Attack win rate?

The Italian Game: Classical Variation, Greco Gambit, Moeller-Therkatz Attack has a 51.2% (90% CI: 50.9%-51.5%) win rate for white, based on 68K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Italian Game: Classical Variation, Greco Gambit, Moeller-Therkatz Attack perform best?

The Italian Game: Classical Variation, Greco Gambit, Moeller-Therkatz Attack performs best at 1000-1199 Elo with a 62.3% win rate for white (341 games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Italian Game: Classical Variation, Greco Gambit, Moeller-Therkatz Attack better in blitz or rapid?

Bullet (52.3%) outperforms Classical (50.5%) by 1.8%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Italian Game: Classical Variation, Greco Gambit, Moeller-Therkatz Attack?

The Italian Game: Classical Variation, Greco Gambit, Moeller-Therkatz Attack has a sharpness score of 94.9 (decisive), meaning 94.9% of games end decisively. Average game length is 33 moves.

What is the Italian Game: Classical Variation, Greco Gambit, Moeller-Therkatz Attack win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the Italian Game: Classical Variation, Greco Gambit, Moeller-Therkatz Attack has a 52.3% (90% CI: 45.4%-59.2%) win rate for white, based on 139 Lichess games. Average game length is 29 moves with a 6.8% draw rate.

What is the Italian Game: Classical Variation, Greco Gambit, Moeller-Therkatz Attack win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Italian Game: Classical Variation, Greco Gambit, Moeller-Therkatz Attack has a 62.3% (90% CI: 58.0%-66.6%) win rate for white, based on 341 Lichess games. Average game length is 28 moves with a 4.5% draw rate.

What is the Italian Game: Classical Variation, Greco Gambit, Moeller-Therkatz Attack win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Italian Game: Classical Variation, Greco Gambit, Moeller-Therkatz Attack has a 56.1% (90% CI: 53.6%-58.6%) win rate for white, based on 1.0K Lichess games. Average game length is 28 moves with a 4.3% draw rate.

What is the Italian Game: Classical Variation, Greco Gambit, Moeller-Therkatz Attack win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Italian Game: Classical Variation, Greco Gambit, Moeller-Therkatz Attack has a 55.6% (90% CI: 54.1%-57.0%) win rate for white, based on 3.1K Lichess games. Average game length is 29 moves with a 3.0% draw rate.

What is the Italian Game: Classical Variation, Greco Gambit, Moeller-Therkatz Attack win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Italian Game: Classical Variation, Greco Gambit, Moeller-Therkatz Attack has a 52.1% (90% CI: 51.2%-53.0%) win rate for white, based on 8.5K Lichess games. Average game length is 30 moves with a 3.4% draw rate.

What is the Italian Game: Classical Variation, Greco Gambit, Moeller-Therkatz Attack win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Italian Game: Classical Variation, Greco Gambit, Moeller-Therkatz Attack has a 51.6% (90% CI: 51.0%-52.1%) win rate for white, based on 20K Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 4.7% draw rate.

What is the Italian Game: Classical Variation, Greco Gambit, Moeller-Therkatz Attack win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Italian Game: Classical Variation, Greco Gambit, Moeller-Therkatz Attack has a 50.2% (90% CI: 49.6%-50.7%) win rate for white, based on 21K Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 5.6% draw rate.

What is the Italian Game: Classical Variation, Greco Gambit, Moeller-Therkatz Attack win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Italian Game: Classical Variation, Greco Gambit, Moeller-Therkatz Attack has a 49.9% (90% CI: 49.1%-50.6%) win rate for white, based on 13K Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 6.3% draw rate.

What is the Italian Game: Classical Variation, Greco Gambit, Moeller-Therkatz Attack win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Italian Game: Classical Variation, Greco Gambit, Moeller-Therkatz Attack has a 51.6% (90% CI: 49.7%-53.5%) win rate for white, based on 1.9K Lichess games. Average game length is 39 moves with a 7.1% draw rate.

What is the Italian Game: Classical Variation, Greco Gambit, Moeller-Therkatz Attack win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Italian Game: Classical Variation, Greco Gambit, Moeller-Therkatz Attack has a 52.3% (90% CI: 51.7%-52.9%) win rate for white (17K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.3%.

What is the Italian Game: Classical Variation, Greco Gambit, Moeller-Therkatz Attack win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Italian Game: Classical Variation, Greco Gambit, Moeller-Therkatz Attack has a 50.9% (90% CI: 50.5%-51.3%) win rate for white (38K Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.4%.

What is the Italian Game: Classical Variation, Greco Gambit, Moeller-Therkatz Attack win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Italian Game: Classical Variation, Greco Gambit, Moeller-Therkatz Attack has a 50.6% (90% CI: 49.8%-51.3%) win rate for white (13K Lichess games). Draw rate is 6.2%.

What is the Italian Game: Classical Variation, Greco Gambit, Moeller-Therkatz Attack win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the Italian Game: Classical Variation, Greco Gambit, Moeller-Therkatz Attack has a 50.5% (90% CI: 47.9%-53.2%) win rate for white (961 Lichess games). Draw rate is 8.5%.

Is the Italian Game: Classical Variation, Greco Gambit, Moeller-Therkatz Attack a good opening?

The Italian Game: Classical Variation, Greco Gambit, Moeller-Therkatz Attack is statistically favors white with a 51.2% (90% CI: 50.9%-51.5%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 1000-1199 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.